Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

I feel for you Mr Tikay with your greening out conundrums. But it's a nice one to have.

No conundrum, am completely happy, reading and learning. When awake.

[The Camel]

Basically, if greening out is the correct thing to do you should be switching your position completely.

You have £10 at 100

And he is now 10, and you think this is a value lay.

You should be laying £100 at 10.

[hector62]

No chance. He's attacking a pineapple and boiled eggs whilst fervently trying to come up with the optimum plan. But like me he hasn't really got a Scooby.

[Karabiner]

Is it too early to start greening out on the golf?

It depends who you are on and at what prices.

Player Odds Amount
Woods   10/1   25
Colsaerts   220   5
Rose   28/1   10
Furyk   33/1   5
Kuchar   28/1   10
McDowell e/w   80/1   10
Zhang   6/1   10
Harrington   80/1   10
Watney   140   5

I don't normally like to green out for someone I've bet at a decent price like McDowell or Colsaerts in your list until they are a single-figure price as I always like to give myself a chance of a decent win having picked a big-priced runner.

Colsaerts I might be looking to take some out @ 11 although I might save my stake @ 21, McDowell 9 perhaps, Tiger maybe save my stake @ 2.5.

I tend to save my stake for one or all of my runners with my first green-out if it's a big price, and then hope to get close to evens or odds-on to take a profit, leaving a decent amount for the win.

That's just roughly what I would be looking at, my style of playing BF if you like.

You green out the good bets and are stuck with the bad bets.

Makes zero sense to me.

You back a player because you think he'll do well, why when he's doing well do you no longer want to be with him?

Why do you say that?

Taking a few quid out of someone that you have bet in the win market @ 150 for instance is simply making it an EW bet.

If I bet £20 Colsaerts @ 150 for instance and then lay £50 @ 11, I still have £2500 for the win and some place money secured. I'm not going to lay @ 11 unless I think I've got the value which goes for any of my bets.

But it isn't one bet on Colsaerts is it?

You have a portfolio of bets, which is essentially one bet on one of your team to win.

You green out on your players who shorten, but if a player drifts you can't get out on him, can you?

Hence it devalues the value of your team as a whole.

But I'm aware that some of my team are going to blow out which is why I have a team.

That's also why I tend to have a few big prices on my team who have a built in cushion for greening purposes as you can go many many weeks without picking an outright winner on the golf.

It's just my way of betting EW in the win market.

I'm all eyes and ears if you can show me a better betting stratagy.

[tikay]

No chance. He's attacking a pineapple and boiled eggs whilst fervently trying to come up with the optimum plan. But like me he hasn't really got a Scooby.

Nailed it.

[The Camel]

Each bet should be taken at its own merit.

Don't just green out, because you want a risk free punt.

That is mug punting. Which I thought this thread was against.

[MereNovice]

No chance. He's attacking a pineapple and boiled eggs whilst fervently trying to come up with the optimum plan. But like me he hasn't really got a Scooby.

I've just laid Tiger big time.
Me and a hundred cocktail waitresses.

[doubleup]

Why are they playing film noir jazz movie scores as background music on the golf?

In an attempt to drown out Montgomery?

lol he's actually a bit better than he was - he was mutebuttonable now he is just ignorable

[redarmi]

With the time delay of pictures, you put up say, 2.8 Woods.

IF he plays a great shot you'll get matched. If if puts one in the heavy rough and looks like dropping a shot or two you won't get matched.

The only time I don't absolutely detest greening out on golf is between rounds when it's a level playing field.

But no-one watching TV would put up 2.8 if 2.82 is available to lay?
The time delay between shots means that TV coverage gives you plenty of time to make a decision.
You take the existing odds if you like them or you wait - you never post odds hoping to have them taken?

I'm VERY happy to be educated.

I don't really get what you are saying here Mere but  am almost certain you are very wrong.  Firstly, you are not seeing every shot on TV.  Secondly, there are people watching that are clearly seeing and betting before the pictures.  Today someone put up Watney on Betdaq for a lump at 50 when he was available to lay at 27 on Betfair.  Surprise, surprise he double bogeyed the hole that wasn't showing as completed on TV or on the PGA site. 

Betting in running on Betfair always reminds me of this quote from Guys and Dolls - "One of these days in your travels, a guy is going to show you a brand-new deck of cards on which the seal is not yet broken. Then this guy is going to offer to bet you that he can make the jack of spades jump out of this brand-new deck of cards and squirt cider in your ear. But, son, do not accept this bet, because as sure as you stand there, you're going to wind up with an ear full of cider."  I learnt more about gambling when I first read that at age 16 or so than any other thing I have ever read.

[horseplayer]

do not green out unless you think the current price is to short relative to the chance

[redarmi]

Why is Furyk still such long odds?

He isn't, he's @ 6 right now, dunno where you are getting your prices from :-p

Looking at the Britsh Open prices perhaps?

Today for a while Betfair front page golf event was actually the British Open....second piece of incredible incompetence I have seen from a firm today.  The other was my mate at one of the firms telling me they had two golf traders there and both had been given this week off.  The mind boggles!!!!

[MereNovice]

With the time delay of pictures, you put up say, 2.8 Woods.

IF he plays a great shot you'll get matched. If if puts one in the heavy rough and looks like dropping a shot or two you won't get matched.

The only time I don't absolutely detest greening out on golf is between rounds when it's a level playing field.

But no-one watching TV would put up 2.8 if 2.82 is available to lay?
The time delay between shots means that TV coverage gives you plenty of time to make a decision.
You take the existing odds if you like them or you wait - you never post odds hoping to have them taken?

I'm VERY happy to be educated.

I don't really get what you are saying here Mere but  am almost certain you are very wrong.  Firstly, you are not seeing every shot on TV.  Secondly, there are people watching that are clearly seeing and betting before the pictures.  Today someone put up Watney on Betdaq for a lump at 50 when he was available to lay at 27 on Betfair.  Surprise, surprise he double bogeyed the hole that wasn't showing as completed on TV or on the PGA site. 

Betting in running on Betfair always reminds me of this quote from Guys and Dolls - "One of these days in your travels, a guy is going to show you a brand-new deck of cards on which the seal is not yet broken. Then this guy is going to offer to bet you that he can make the jack of spades jump out of this brand-new deck of cards and squirt cider in your ear. But, son, do not accept this bet, because as sure as you stand there, you're going to wind up with an ear full of cider."  I learnt more about gambling when I first read that at age 16 or so than any other thing I have ever read.

Thanks for that - love it.
I was thinking more of betting odds after you have just seen a shot on TV - specifically for someone like Tiger where every shot is covered in (near) real-time.
You can make a reasoned decision on the odds because you know that he hasn't played his next shot although you can't be confident on the latest situation on all his near rivals.
I'm sure that I've seen Betfair odds react late to a situation that I've seen on TV though.
Perhaps I'm deluding myself.

[redarmi]

I'm sure that I've seen Betfair odds react late to a situation that I've seen on TV though.
Perhaps I'm deluding myself.

Yeah you have....but do you know that the insiders aren't already on.  I am not quite as anti trading in running as Keith but generally what he says is right.  You should almost certainly not leave any orders up because you best case scenario is that you get matched with both you and the other party both having seen everything and having full information but you could easily be laying him after he has holed out and you will not know until it is too late.  IMO this tips any +EV you had into -EV.

[doubleup]

Basically, if greening out is the correct thing to do you should be switching your position completely.

You have £10 at 100

And he is now 10, and you think this is a value lay.

You should be laying £100 at 10.

Don't you think that there might be some variance reduction arguments?  ie paying a small price to take advantage of other opportunities?

[Karabiner]

I should clarify that in the examples that I gave they were the biggest prices that I would consider greening out at if I thought that I was getting the value. They were not to be used as stop-losses whenever that price was achieved.