Tips for Tikay

[redarmi]

Basically, if greening out is the correct thing to do you should be switching your position completely.

You have £10 at 100

And he is now 10, and you think this is a value lay.

You should be laying £100 at 10.

Don't you think that there might be some variance reduction arguments?  ie paying a small price to take advantage of other opportunities?

Variance should only be reduced if you are underrolled though.  Otherwise it should be embraced because you will be paid a premium by those that want to reduce their own variance.

[MereNovice]

I'm sure that I've seen Betfair odds react late to a situation that I've seen on TV though.
Perhaps I'm deluding myself.

Yeah you have....but do you know that the insiders aren't already on.  I am not quite as anti trading in running as Keith but generally what he says is right.  You should almost certainly not leave any orders up because you best case scenario is that you get matched with both you and the other party both having seen everything and having full information but you could easily be laying him after he has holed out and you will not know until it is too late.  IMO this tips any +EV you had into -EV.

Thanks for the clarification.
Yes, I strongly believe in not "leaving orders up" in-play where I know I am behind real time.
That was the point I was, clumsily, trying to make earlier.

[redarmi]

Actually I tend to find that one of the more profitable strategies is to lay a team, player etc a minute or two after they have done something good especially something very good because everyones first reaction is to get with them and they end up getting overbet.  Especially love betting on teams that have just lost wickets in cricket and then greening when they start batting in.  I have no evidence but I wouldn't be surprised if that was blindly profitable.

[Chompy]

Yup, agree with Keith too re: greening. I was an habitual greener upper on horseys IR but it's the right thing to do there coz the swings are so big and quick. Any other sport I'd rarely take back more than the initial stake. Can't see much value in doing anything else.

[JaffaCake]

My mate used to work on the BBC football desk. He said their golf guy was filling his boots on pictures they got to see at the BBC 10 seconds or so (defo a decent time because they would be able to be called in to see a great shot before it was on our tv) before the rest of the world. He can't be the only one. Put me off ever betting inn running on golf tbh

[Karabiner]

Well I just greened out £150 on Toms @ 9 on BF having bet him £20 @ 250, he still wins me £3800.

So there 

[MereNovice]

Well I just greened out £150 on Toms @ 9 on BF having bet him £20 @ 250, he still wins me £3800.

So there 

Nice.

[tikay]

Well I just greened out £150 on Toms @ 9 on BF having bet him £20 @ 250, he still wins me £3800.

So there 

Lol, nice one Ralph.

Must say, I loved that debate yesterday as to greening out or not, it was, for the vast majority of us, very helpful.

[hector62]

When faced with a tricky dilemma I try to put myself in the mind of one of the greatest thinkers of our time and utilise the acronym WWSD ( What Would Spock Do).

Here we are having backed a number of golfers to win a tournament. Only 1 player can win and therefore only 1 of our bets can win. This is totally illogical. We can however make all of our bets  win by greening out  all bar 1. The solution is simple when you look at it like a Vulcan! Now which bets to green out , that is a wee bit harder to fathom. Oh and when to do it.

I wonder if this kind of thinking takes place in betting shops?

P.S I am sorry for the Zhang bet Mr Tikay, I will strive to give you a better golf tip next time.

[smashedagain]

What did Zhang finish up on?

[tikay]

When faced with a tricky dilemma I try to put myself in the mind of one of the greatest thinkers of our time and utilise the acronym WWSD ( What Would Spock Do).

Here we are having backed a number of golfers to win a tournament. Only 1 player can win and therefore only 1 of our bets can win. This is totally illogical. We can however make all of our bets  win by greening out  all bar 1. The solution is simple when you look at it like a Vulcan! Now which bets to green out , that is a wee bit harder to fathom. Oh and when to do it.

I wonder if this kind of thinking takes place in betting shops?

P.S I am sorry for the Zhang bet Mr Tikay, I will strive to give you a better golf tip next time.

"What Would Spock Do?"

Who is Spock? What score is he?

"Sorry" for Zhang bet? FINAL WARNING.

Any more apologies, & a 24 hour Thread Veto follows.

We backed a basket, 1 or 2 toppled out, 1 or 2 are handily placed to win. That's why we had a basket.  Our basket runneth over.

[tikay]

What did Zhang finish up on?

+16. But there were plenty who were plenty worse!

The Cut was all those +8 or better survived. Luke Donald was +11, Rory +10 - that was after TWO rounds!

You can see the carnage here, Jase.....

http://www.majorschampionships.com/usopen/2012/scoring/

If you scroll to the bottom, some poor chap shot +28. In two rounds.

[tikay]

Daily Update, as @ 0810, Saturday June 16th

LOSS on Month = £14.84

Unsettled Bets = £932.50


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=8

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 08.30, Saturday June 16th.

We run pretty good yesterday, & are at last away from the -£200 -£300 area, we are just £15 down on the month, with all to play for, & we have a little wriggle room now.

Mere gave us TWO Tennis bets - & as his "bet" frequency is VERY low, far & few between, I back them almost blind. As it happens, I decided to choose just one, when Fred is £300 down I get ultra nitty, & we happily chose the correct one for a nice £50 profit.

Bobby, who tipped us a £90 winner on Thursday in the golf, gave us a quirky bet on Euro12, "Method of 1st Goal - header" - in the England Game, & we had £40 @ 4/1. There were 5 goals in all, only one was from a header - the first. That's called rungood, I think.

Not much else of note yesterday, (except the US Open Golf, which I'll deal with seperately) though Carroll scoring might yet pay dividends, we have him for £40 @ 15/2 Top England scorer.

Carroll is now 3/1 to be Top England Scorer, so we have a good bet thanks to Fraser, though I'd personally be quite interested in Rooney @ 7/1.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/euro-2012/england-euro-2012-specials/top-goalscorer

We have had very little "match" action so far in Euro12, focussing more on sub-markets, & I think that's good, as there has been very little visible or perceived value in the games so far. We have plenty of long-term interest in it, plus sub-market bits & bobs, so I'm not fussed if we don't find any match bets.

In NBA, Miami never played yesterday.

Our T20 bet was not in action yesterday, we are with Surrey, & Glamorgan. All going nicely so far, though the journey has hardly begun......

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/cricket/counties/results_fixtures_tables/4432503.stm

We had a first class discussion on Exchange Betting, too.

Fred had a good day.   

[tikay]

Whilst I remember.....

Tighty suggested WI to beat England in the 3 match ODI series which commences today. I bungled the bet & placed it as the FIRST match.

I am therefore REMOVING that Bet from Fred, & will take it on my personal account.

I have this morning placed the Tighty bet correctly, as follows.....

WI to win the 3 match ODI Series v England, £80 @ 5/4, Ladbrokes.

ON