Tips for Tikay

[TL900]

both teams get the opportunity to possess the ball unless the first team scores a touchdown, if after both teams have had one possession the score is tied then it is proper sudden death (next fg wins basically) Cincinnati missed a FG in the last seconds to win it.

[horseplayer]

Breeders' Cup ‏@BreedersCup  17m17 minutes ago
NEWS: Wise Dan will miss #BC14 Mile due to ankle injury. More: http://www.breederscup.com/article/two-time-breeders-cup-mile-winner-wise-dan-will-not-defend-title-santa-anita-due-ankle …
Get Well Soon, Champ #WiseDan





Wise Dan out of the breeders cup

It will probably kill any accounts but racebets and sportsbook are asleep and still up

Back any of the others in the top half of the betting is obviously a great bet

[horseplayer]

All pulled now

hope some got some valooo

[Tal]

Possible market for tonight's neffle:

The rams are rubbish at stopping the run (150 yards allowed per game). The niners have a cannonball called Frank Gore who likes running through the middle of teams who are rubbish at stopping the run.

Click to see full-size image.

Gore has been handed the rock 24 and 18 times in his last two games and, with an extra day's rest, it seems fairly obvious he'll be getting some action tonight. But those are high compared to the previous weeks. The line for number of rush attempts by him personally is 18.5, according to the formerly labelled shouty red man. The problem is Gore isn't getting any younger and, if the Rams close up the middle a bit (as they did in the second game against the niners last season), it's more likely Kaepernick will go airborne or run the outside himself. There's also a decent backup in Carlos Hyde, who has had a few carries this year in support.

I think the line is a little high. I've never had a bet on this market before, so open to views before committing myself or anyone else to it.

Tentatively thinking Under 18.5 Frank Gore rush attempts @ 10/11 with Mr LA. de Brooks.

[TightEnd]

18 carries is in theory about right

if you look at http://www.nfl.com/player/frankgore/2506404/gamelogs

you see he has 77 carries so far this season in five games

split 16 ((leading, so he gets carries to control the game),13 (team losing so move away from the run),6 (team losing big so no room for the run ),24 (leading, so he gets carries to control the game),18 (leading, so he gets carries to control the game)

obviously he has been in the league a long time so you have a 137 game sample size to go at

and he averages 16.5 carries per game, and in the early years of his career when the 49ers were being rebuilt there wasn't much in the way of receivers, no kaepernick etc. He was the offense so this 16.5 is skewed to when he was younger

As you say he has a very talented rookie behind him now in Hyde who is being groomed to take over

looking at the type of game it might be...

the Rams have tended to play from behind this season, and recover when they air it out later in the game

if the 49ers take the lead, then running it with Gore is the name of the game to control the clock

personally i think 18 rushes, and rushing yard quotes of 85-95 i think when i looked are about right


not that i will do anything myself but i thought Colin Kaepernick FTS around 20-1 was sporting, as the Rams and their many defensive linemen have to stop the run, but don't have the linebackers to control the read option

[Tal]

Both pass rushes are poor, too, which lends to the theory that the quarterback will have more time to select targets.

Thought I'd ask the question anyway. Good to get a professional opinion on these things

Thanks muchly.

[bobby1]

I would rather be on your side than the over Tal, think Hyde has had 20 carries in the last two games . even if 49ers are winning well and looking to run the clock out there is still no guarantee they give all the carries to Gore. If behind they are likely to be passing more so think you have a few ways to win with your bet.

[horseplayer]

Thanks Tal

You certainly dont owe me anything of late so will follow again to keep me awake

cheers

[TightEnd]

Tal you have edited your post? Originally it read that you were tempted by overs which I was cautioningagainst!

[Tal]

No, I was always advocating the unders. Thought the obvious was worth opposing.

Right ho. Becoming a fun Tuesday morning sweat, waking up to find out how the Monday night bet went.

What's happened to Kingston Hill btw? It's snorkel weather, so would have thought right up his street?

[exstream]

If you are wanting to back Royal Club in the final again, they are 11/2 vs 1/10 Samsung White.

[Tal]

The reports suggest the Rams covered the run on the inside, so Kaepernick had a field day passing instead, the Niners winning comfortably. Gore and Hyde averaged less than 2 yards per carry, but that wasn't for the want of trying. I believe Gore had 16 attempts for 38 yards.

Looks like a win.

[horseplayer]

Lord tal

Your doing a pretty good job on the nfl better than that actually

Thanks

 🏈

[Tal]

Lord tal

Your doing a pretty good job on the nfl better than that actually

Thanks

 🏈

Must be quite a fun one to sweat while watching. Say he has 14 touches with six minutes on the clock and they're running the clock down with runs, you must find yourself counting out loud like on Sesame Street

Glad to get another W in the column anyway.

[horseplayer]

I still dont understand it enough to follow the stats

Nfl.com is my late night friend