Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

No offence intended but I say 'no' on the chess bet. As world champion in a minority (betting wise) sport, I can't see how Carlsen could possibly be overpriced by the bookies. If anything, probably underpriced. I would think any bet would be to oppose him in some form.

No offence taken Dazzler.

Based on ELO ratings Nate Silver was bullish on Magnus Carlsen chances in relation to the odds: 
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/magnus-carlsen-world-chess-championship/

I'll happily elaborate on the bet in the morning.

He is saying that 1/4 is value overall, which isn't the same as saying 1.81 is value with a 1.5 start?  I guess I'd have to build a spreadsheet with his assumptions in to test, but if you are expecting many draws then the handicap bet could be worse?  Still plenty of money at 1.9 for -1.5.  Don't know if you can get better if you ask as there is only just over £200 total bet on the market so far.

[TightEnd]

Tighty.

For spreadsheet clarity, we accidentally but happily double booked the Chess Bet - two people trying to help, combined with awkward timing for me last night. Quite happy with that, though, we'll have plenty of value with this one.

We have £30 via "nuros", which has now been paid for by Bank TX.

We have £30 via Sequin Bloke, which will be settled, either way, after the event. 

Off we go, good luck all who are aboard.

at what price is the second bet on?

the first was 41/50

[tikay]

Tighty.

For spreadsheet clarity, we accidentally but happily double booked the Chess Bet - two people trying to help, combined with awkward timing for me last night. Quite happy with that, though, we'll have plenty of value with this one.

We have £30 via "nuros", which has now been paid for by Bank TX.

We have £30 via Sequin Bloke, which will be settled, either way, after the event.  

Off we go, good luck all who are aboard.

at what price is the second bet on?

the first was 41/50

The Bet Tal put on for us was £30 @ 1.82 which, I suspect, is somewhat similar to 41/50. I'll get Doobsy on the case to work it out.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £33.72

Outstanding Bets £4201.26

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=32

A loss of £19 yesterday. Palalei v Harris MMA, Palalei won in the 2nd not in the 1st, I gather

A Mercedes 1-2 in FP1-2 in Interlagos yesterday. A couple of interesting tidbits though

Two red flags in FP2 made it hard to read the race-simulation times, especially on the soft tyre. However, Ricciardo looked strong. On both types of tyre, Ricciardo's peak lap time was faster than the fastest Mercedes (Rosberg) - by 0.2secs on soft and 0.4secs on medium. On medium tyre, averages were as follows: RIC 1:15.659; ROS 15.804; HAM 16.308.

We'll get an idea today if anything can be read into this

Also, this was a Rosberg soft tyre after ten laps

Click to see full-size image.

A bit of rain over the weekend and a fun race awaits


Basketball from last night, our teams in bold

Toronto beat Washington 104-83

Dallas beat Utah 105-82

Cleveland Cavs went to Denver and halted their skid, winning 110-101

LeBron James had 22 points and a season-high 11 assists and Kevin Love added 19 points and eight rebounds

Click to see full-size image.

[Doobs]

Tighty.

For spreadsheet clarity, we accidentally but happily double booked the Chess Bet - two people trying to help, combined with awkward timing for me last night. Quite happy with that, though, we'll have plenty of value with this one.

We have £30 via "nuros", which has now been paid for by Bank TX.

We have £30 via Sequin Bloke, which will be settled, either way, after the event.  

Off we go, good luck all who are aboard.

at what price is the second bet on?

the first was 41/50

The Bet Tal put on for us was £30 @ 1.82 which, I suspect, is somewhat similar to 41/50. I'll get Doobsy on the case to work it out.

Think I'll need a spreadsheet for 41x2.

[tikay]

Tighty.

For spreadsheet clarity, we accidentally but happily double booked the Chess Bet - two people trying to help, combined with awkward timing for me last night. Quite happy with that, though, we'll have plenty of value with this one.

We have £30 via "nuros", which has now been paid for by Bank TX.

We have £30 via Sequin Bloke, which will be settled, either way, after the event.  

Off we go, good luck all who are aboard.

at what price is the second bet on?

the first was 41/50

The Bet Tal put on for us was £30 @ 1.82 which, I suspect, is somewhat similar to 41/50. I'll get Doobsy on the case to work it out.

Think I'll need a spreadsheet for 41x2.

Exactly as I suspected.

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

The rugby " friendlies" start today and there is a bet that I like in the evening match. I find myself, yet again, at odds with the compilers as I make Scotland favourites to beat Argentina. Scotland have a new coach, and have based their team around their Glasgow players, who are doing very nicely this season. Glasgow stuffed Bath, and won away at Montpelier both of which are solid results. Add into the mix that Scotland won away at Argentina in the Summer, albeit both sides were very different, and I am having a great deal of consternation as to how anyone makes Argentina favourites. With the final factor of the weather being cold and wet then we can forget about when Scotland lost a year ago to Tonga and get on them.

Suggest £20 Scotland @ 6/5 with Coral or Ladbrokes.

[TightEnd]

Morning Mr T.

The rugby " friendlies" start today and there is a bet that I like in the evening match. I find myself, yet again, at odds with the compilers as I make Scotland favourites to beat Argentina. Scotland have a new coach, and have based their team around their Glasgow players, who are doing very nicely this season. Glasgow stuffed Bath, and won away at Montpelier both of which are solid results. Add into the mix that Scotland won away at Argentina in the Summer, albeit both sides were very different, and I am having a great deal of consternation as to how anyone makes Argentina favourites. With the final factor of the weather being cold and wet then we can forget about when Scotland lost a year ago to Tonga and get on them.

Suggest £20 Scotland @ 6/5 with Coral or Ladbrokes.

Your bet has been placed with William Hill.
Thank you and good luck! Print Receipt
Single

08 Nov 2014 - Scotland v Argentina - Match Betting

Scotland @ 6/5

Stake : £20.00
Estimated Returns : £
44.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001124/F


What were your views on the big one at Twickenham?

[hector62]

I think New Zealand will win but the weather may affect the score. I like the price of England to score fewer than 18.5 points. I see a score like 26 - 12. Of course if Sonny Bill decides to run at the midget all game it could get a bit messy and a big win could happen.

[TightEnd]

browsing around Ladbrokes have this today for all accounts

Click to see full-size image.

i suppose this is a fair punt for a bookie, given liverpool are un-prolific currently so you might think BTTS is actually longer than the 8/11 available

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/liverpool-v-chelsea/both-teams-to-score 

if anything appeals, post away

its a lunchtime kick off

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/liverpool-v-chelsea/winner

[arbboy]

Leeds close to evens now v Bpool on bf and probably worth topping up on following Horsey's rec earlier in the week if they go the other side of evens.  Tough to see why Bpool are being backed so heavily in this spot given the midweek stuff we spoke about earlier in the week.

[TightEnd]

I think New Zealand will win but the weather may affect the score. I like the price of England to score fewer than 18.5 points. I see a score like 26 - 12. Of course if Sonny Bill decides to run at the midget all game it could get a bit messy and a big win could happen.

thank you, i can't see any prices there yet

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/internationals/england-v-new-zealand/total-home-team-points

i put my thoughts up on BE, by the way. Midgets feature

Here's Kyle




Here's Sonny Bill



In addition, and not one i or thread can do, but there is a severe mis-price in first yellow card

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/internationals/england-v-new-zealand/first-team-booking

Egland should be odds on. likely to be under pressure, trying to slow down ball, generally less disciplined too

[arbboy]

browsing around Ladbrokes have this today for all accounts

Click to see full-size image.

i suppose this is a fair punt for a bookie, given liverpool are un-prolific currently so you might think BTTS is actually longer than the 8/11 available

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/liverpool-v-chelsea/both-teams-to-score 

if anything appeals, post away

its a lunchtime kick off

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/liverpool-v-chelsea/winner

Understandably Ladbrokes have gone incredibly short all the correct scores which don't involve both teams scoring which we should be focusing on for the offer and none of them are anywhere close to the true price.  Similar can be said about the first goalscorer prices. That being said given the free bet offer there is probably still a bit of juice having a bet giving the cashback offer.  It's online only as well doesn't apply to shops.

2-0 Chelski 10/1 and Costa 4/1 FGS look the two best options fwiw.  Would suggest £25 on each as long as tikay's ladbrokes account hasn't had all money back offers stopped.

[Newportlad]

Is the bet void if there is no yellow card?   If not, then are the odds not correct?

[tikay]

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