Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Loss on Month £14.37

Outstanding Bets £4120.61

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=32

NFL player prop betting should be a simple thing. Look at where teams are strong and weak, look for player match ups, correlate with statistics over career and season, check quotes and wait for the game to play out as expected

Except its the NFL, and often it doesn't. Last night the Bengals starting quarterback Andy Dalton had the fifth worst quarterback performance, as measured by the QB rating the NFL uses, since 1960. Almost out of nowhere too.

10 completions from 33 attempts, 88 passing yards, 0 touchdowns and 3 interceptions was enough for a QBR of 4.0, and this is a scale that runs from 0 to 153 (a perfect performance)

Click to see full-size image.

This abjectivity, for us, in part attributable to an offensive line that could have been replaced  by five turnstiles and not noticed much difference was compounded by play-calling so eccentric Tal could have been on the sidelines. Jeremy Hill has 44 yards on 11 carries at half-time, but the game is getting away from the Bengals,  17-3 down. Still plenty of time though, and your quarterback is struggling so run the ball a bit, take the pressure off

They gave Hill the ball once in the second half, he ran it for 11 yards. Team after team does it, panics, abandons the run and puts the ball in the hands of a quarterback who is performing poorly

I went to bed in a huff, shortly before Dalton was benched

Anyway, as you might be able to tell, my bet lost. He finished with 55 yards on 12 carries. Its not rocket science. 20 carries = 100 yards or so, more first downs and stay in the game

Two other implications from the result

The Cleveland Browns were excellent and went to 6-3, joint top of the division with the Steelers (who are in two of our forward book bets). Played with a lot of fire, dominated division rivals and have their best record after nine games since 1994.

To compound my frustration, they ran the ball 48 times in the game, the most by any team in any game this year. Thats the way to do it. Great.

Click to see full-size image.

Aside from the tribulations of the offense, the Bengals defense is a shadow of its former self. Injury ridden and playing a scheme so vanilla it might as well have a flake stuck in it. Badly missing their co-ordinator Mke Zmmer who went to coach the Vikings. Its very unlikely the team will concede the least points in the league this season, as we require.

Onwards

the Houston Rockets beat the Spurs 98-61 last night

and in the other game the Portland trailblazers smacked the Dallas Mavs 108-87

Click to see full-size image.

so that was two losers out of two

I spotted this yesterday

"The @Sixers' @NerlensNoel3 keeps his No. 1 perch as new names enter @NBAcom Rookie Ladder: http://on.nba.com/10zSgch "

He is one of our rookie of the year bets

Click to see full-size image.

For the Cavs, this is a good read "what's going on with the Cavs. Is it the players or their coaching? http://nmbr.fr/10su2R5"

the Cavaliers at 1-3, only 5 team have ever won the NBA Championship after Starting 1-3 all-time, none since the 1990-91 Bulls.

Sadly for you all i can feel myself getting drawn into basketball stattery.

[tikay]

Too many golden lines there Rich, but these were the pick of the bunch for me....


This abjectivity, for us, in part attributable to an offensive line that could have been replaced  by five turnstiles and not noticed much difference was compounded by play-calling so eccentric Tal could have been on the sidelines


Injury ridden and playing a scheme so vanilla it might as well have a flake stuck in it.


Wonderful!

[TightEnd]

I LOVE that there is F1 chatter on here

I've had a look at the markets, and there is currently a lot of great spots on the table in my opinion.

Tighty, your analysis is good - and while you are right that I think "Mercedes are still a second ahead of the field", 20/1 on Ricciardo is a decent price - especially in Brazil!

My suggestions:

Race Winner - Daniel Ricciardo @ 20/1 with a tonne of bookies. Min bet. Reasoning as above.
Points Finish - Romain Grosjean @ 11/2 with Sporting Bet and Betway. Min bet. Again, it's Brazil, 11/2 is a great price!
Top 6 Finish - Nico Hulkenberg @ 10/1 with Paddy Power. Force India always strong at Brazil, worth a punt at this price. Min bet.
Group A (RIC/BOT/MAS/VET) - Valtteri Bottas @ 2/1 with Bet365 and Paddy Power. Stronger chance than 2/1. Min bet.
Group B (ALO/BUT/MAG/RAI) - Fernando Alonso @ EVS with Paddy Power. Can't quite believe this price against his teammate and the McLarens. Recommend £20, take advantage!

betfred
Brazilian Grand Prix
Race Winner
   Ricciardo, Daniel    20/1    
Total stake   £ 10.00
Estimated return   £ 210.00
Full stake   £ 10.00
Full estimated return   £ 210.00


top 6 finish, PP 7/1, took the best available


Brazilian GP

    £10
    9/1
    £100.00
    Nico Hulkenberg
    Top 6 Finish


i can't do the group bets, neither in places we can get on

tikay i need the sportingbet password to do the Grosjean bet

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000106

[Tal]

Too many golden lines there Rich, but these were the pick of the bunch for me....


This abjectivity, for us, in part attributable to an offensive line that could have been replaced  by five turnstiles and not noticed much difference was compounded by play-calling so eccentric Tal could have been on the sidelines


Injury ridden and playing a scheme so vanilla it might as well have a flake stuck in it.


Wonderful!

Yes, he was a loss to the Blackadder writing team.

Anyway, never mind that basketball nonsense. Proper Fred sweat coming up tonight.

[TightEnd]

This is one for the ISA's/long term money buyers out there but it's not very often you can lay a 40-50/1 shot at 8/1 for good money on betfair but this is one of these rare examples.  Several firms on oddschecker are freely offering 10/1 on a one way book without offering the other side of the bet - this usually means the 10/1 is a mile away from the true price on most 'one way specials'.  I put up a decent lump at 8/1 on betfair yday and it has all been hoovered within 24 hours) and the bet has a 27% chance of being settled by 3pm this Saturday.  I am not going to take the credit for this because Dubai put me onto this but i have done the maths on it and it's got to be close to a maximum bet if you have spare cash to tie up potentially for a few months.  I will let tighty decide what fred decides to tie up as i appreciate the forward book is large as a % of working capital but i have had a maximum bet on this fwiw.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/chelsea/to-remain-unbeaten

This is one of those markets which really attracts the casual punter who don't really think the bet through and how hard it is to stay unbeaten all season (28 games from now) and fav/longshot bias also comes into play as well as the time value of money.   Basically there is a massive imbalance between backers and layers of this type of bet on betfair which helps to cause these market 'inefficiencies'.

I have computed the rough price of Chelski to remain unbeaten for the rest of the league season using a conservative approach assuming chelski will be at full strength in every game (which they obviously won't be for 28 more league games) and what price they would be for each game given they are still unbeaten when the game takes place and i make the true price of this happening around a 40/1 shot.

If we factor in the fact if they are unbeaten approaching March/April it's virtually certain they will have the league wrapped up and rotate the squad a lot more for the later games for champions league/fa cup commitments (these are obviously more likely if they are still unbeaten in the league by this stage) which will mean they are a much shorter price potentially for several of these games than i have used to arrive at the 40/1 'true' price which would make the bet even more unlikely than 40/1. 

Secondly, their final two games are against potential relegation fighting teams (sunderland and WBA) but i have priced these as if they are competitive games (the league will be wrapped up if it goes down to the final two bets) and Chelski would be pretty likely to either be in the FA cup final and/or champions league final if they were this dominant and again rest players.  Conversely the other two teams could easily go off much shorter in the betting than i have used for this calculation.

Whatever scenario you use they are around 4/1 to still be unbeaten after the xmas period on the estimated match prices.  This highlights the value of this bet alone. 

Even if you don't want to lump on at 1/8 you can invest a large sum and 'arb' it every game by laying Chelski's opponents and 'save up' all the winnings on this 40/1 28 team acca to more than cover the losses of backing an 1/8 loser if you are really risk averse and you will get a much bigger totally risk free return on your money than any isa could offer.  Either way it merits a substantial investment and the bet is nearly 28% likely to be settled in just over 36 hours!

I will keep a record of the inverse of the bf sp of every Chelski opponent until the end of the season/the streak ends to try and demonstrate how much 'value' is on offer with this opportunity.  Barring the demolition job at Everton they have hardly been playing like world beaters in the EPL/Champions league(even the carling cup) to justify this incredibly short price so early on in the season.

They also have a very tough xmas fixture list on paper with 3 away games out of 4 in 10 days (Stoke/Spurs/Southampton) with West Ham on boxing day at home to break it up.

 

I am struggling to do this, and making it worthwhile, without affecting the operation of the thread, which is a shame but i need to have a portfolio manager think!

Laying £50 at 9 ties up £400 and thats 70% of the betfair balance which, with fewer places to get on these days, gets traded quite a lot

I suppose i could do it and hope for a loss sooner rather than later

[tikay]

Too many golden lines there Rich, but these were the pick of the bunch for me....


This abjectivity, for us, in part attributable to an offensive line that could have been replaced  by five turnstiles and not noticed much difference was compounded by play-calling so eccentric Tal could have been on the sidelines


Injury ridden and playing a scheme so vanilla it might as well have a flake stuck in it.


Wonderful!

Yes, he was a loss to the Blackadder writing team.

Anyway, never mind that basketball nonsense. Proper Fred sweat coming up tonight.

Yup, we have an MMA/UFC bet tonight, proper man's game that. No sequins or chess nonsense here.

[tikay]

I LOVE that there is F1 chatter on here

I've had a look at the markets, and there is currently a lot of great spots on the table in my opinion.

Tighty, your analysis is good - and while you are right that I think "Mercedes are still a second ahead of the field", 20/1 on Ricciardo is a decent price - especially in Brazil!

My suggestions:

Race Winner - Daniel Ricciardo @ 20/1 with a tonne of bookies. Min bet. Reasoning as above.
Points Finish - Romain Grosjean @ 11/2 with Sporting Bet and Betway. Min bet. Again, it's Brazil, 11/2 is a great price!
Top 6 Finish - Nico Hulkenberg @ 10/1 with Paddy Power. Force India always strong at Brazil, worth a punt at this price. Min bet.
Group A (RIC/BOT/MAS/VET) - Valtteri Bottas @ 2/1 with Bet365 and Paddy Power. Stronger chance than 2/1. Min bet.
Group B (ALO/BUT/MAG/RAI) - Fernando Alonso @ EVS with Paddy Power. Can't quite believe this price against his teammate and the McLarens. Recommend £20, take advantage!

betfred
Brazilian Grand Prix
Race Winner
   Ricciardo, Daniel    20/1    
Total stake   £ 10.00
Estimated return   £ 210.00
Full stake   £ 10.00
Full estimated return   £ 210.00


top 6 finish, PP 7/1, took the best available


Brazilian GP

    £10
    9/1
    £100.00
    Nico Hulkenberg
    Top 6 Finish


i can't do the group bets, neither in places we can get on

tikay i need the sportingbet password to do the Grosjean bet

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000106

PM on way.....

[TightEnd]

Stuart Downing is flourishing this season playing in behind the strikers.

He only has two goals so far but his stats have looked really good - particularly recently. In the last 4 games he has had 8 shots in the box - the only midfielder in the league who has managed more is Sanchez.

He is really starting to look threatening now at the tip of the diamond. West Ham themselves are also just a much better attacking side this season - 89 shots in the box sees them sit 4th behind City, Arsenal and Saints for close range efforts.

West Ham have Villa at home this weekend and they are well fancied. They actually have a nice run of fixtures up to Christmas, I fancy Downing to grab 3 or 4 more between now and then. He is 4/1 anytime in a few spots for this weekend, I wanted to see a smidge bigger to be honest but don't think its a bad bet for £10.

Shine bright like a (top of a) diamond?

two years ago one would have said that we had really jumped the shark. Downing anytime? i can picture the reaction now

Good for the tactical genius that is Big Sam, getting the best out of the Teeside string-puller

 
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
West Ham v Aston Villa
Score Anytime
   Downing, Stewart    4/1    
Total stake   £ 10.00
Estimated return   £ 50.00
Full stake   £ 10.00
Full estimated return   £ 50.00

[Tal]

Too many golden lines there Rich, but these were the pick of the bunch for me....


This abjectivity, for us, in part attributable to an offensive line that could have been replaced  by five turnstiles and not noticed much difference was compounded by play-calling so eccentric Tal could have been on the sidelines


Injury ridden and playing a scheme so vanilla it might as well have a flake stuck in it.


Wonderful!

Yes, he was a loss to the Blackadder writing team.

Anyway, never mind that basketball nonsense. Proper Fred sweat coming up tonight.

Yup, we have an MMA/UFC bet tonight, proper man's game that. No sequins or chess nonsense here.

Exactly.

Ish.

[TightEnd]

Unit Stake

        Bet Type: Single
            Brazil Grand Prix - Points Finish Points Finish
                Romain Grosjean 11/2
        Possible Payout (inc. stake) 65.00 GBP
    1 bet @
    10.00 GBP

    Total Cost: 10.00 GBP
    Total Possible Payout (inc. stake): 65.00 GBP

Sportingnobet

[samurai]

Politics.

This week Lord Ashcroft published results of polling that he'd done in marginal constituencies.

This showed the Tories ahead in 3 constituencies Kingswood. Blackpool North and Loughborough.

As a rule of thumb the closer to a General Election we get the more support returns to the party currently in power. Ergo we could realistically expect the Tory lead in these constituencies to increase as we approach May 2015.

Current prices. In Kingswood the Tories are Evs with PP and 10/11 with Lads. This seems like a great price particularly as Labour are really struggling in the south and the current Mp will have the boost of first term  incumbency.

Any views from politics heads gratefully received?

[TightEnd]

Politics.

This week Lord Ashcroft published results of polling that he'd done in marginal constituencies.

This showed the Tories ahead in 3 constituencies Kingswood. Blackpool North and Loughborough.

As a rule of thumb the closer to a General Election we get the more support returns to the party currently in power. Ergo we could realistically expect the Tory lead in these constituencies to increase as we approach May 2015.

Current prices. In Kingswood the Tories are Evs with PP and 10/11 with Lads. This seems like a great price particularly as Labour are really struggling in the south and the current Mp will have the boost of first term  incumbency.

Any views from politics heads gratefully received?

no knowledge about Kngswood, but your premise seems logical

from memory, there is a 4% swing con to lab in opinion polls currently from 2010 and the Aschcroft marginals are showing 4.5% to 6%..so if 6 months ahead a marginal in this polling is staying blue then its less marginal than you would think

i gather there is quite the conservative campaign to try to shore up ed miliband's position. they do not want him replaced before the election!

[samurai]

Yes I think a change of Labour leader could cause carnage in the betting markets. Would completely kill of the Lib Dems so good for Freds position I think.

[horseplayer]

Enjoyed this

https://www.timeform.com/Racing/Articles/Jamie_Spencer_End_of_an_Era

[Tonji]

Click to see full-size image.

Mini update on Mikaela Shiffrin.

Her coach this week: "She showed she has speed (in GS) now," said Roland Pfeifer, who coaches the U.S. World Cup women in GS and slalom. "I'm totally satisfied that she is also going to shoot for the globe (World Cup title) in GS."

She has a slalom race next week in Finland. Next GS race will be in Aspen, US on 29th.