Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Lol arbboy! "Like most fit birds in society"

Say what you like about Fred and his followers, never let it be said they don't put in the hours of furious concentration, in pursuit of knowledge.

As a coda, society does not have "fit birds"; it has ladies.



You'd never guess what carnal outrage lies within these dots.

you have ladies & then you have French ladies of the night! Putain

Glad someone got the reference

[TheDazzler]

I think Palace to win at 11/1 away to Man U is a good price for a bet.

Similar reasons why I thought we would score away to Everton. Very open at the back, and we have a lot of pace that can punish. The thought of Bolasie teeing off on Valencia is an interesting one. I fancy the Zaha vs. Shaw one too to favour the former.

We also have a decent defence on an "on" day, as was seen away to Everton and Arsenal.

Scored 9 in our 5 prem away games this season.

At the odds given I think we should be at most 8/1 and below. Of course they have an attack force that can hurt anyone and they often play well against us, but I still think it's value.

Take it or leave it, I don't really mind, I just wish everyone a nice day really . Suggest 20 quid with betvictor.

As I was watching Palace v Sunderland I was thinking they might give United a good game. They looked very dangerous going forward. But Jedinak out. Also Zaha can't play against parent club. 2 very big drawbacks.

Forgot about both embarrassingly.

With Zaha, Puncheon replacing means he adds a better goal threat, with less attacking flair, however he is still fast and can still run at wing backs well. So in terms of effectiveness it's sort of a like for like.

As for Jedinak he is a much bigger blow. Our stand out player, aside from when he is getting over jet lag after international duty where he becomes pretty awful. I think MacArthur steps in and we play Ledley alongside him in central midfield. I think Ledley could step up without Jedinak knowing he needs to be the the buffer of the defence and put in a great performance.

Jedinak not playing makes the margin of value smaller, but we could be pleasantly surprised by Ledley who could possibly put in a better shift with his better passing ability and maybe without Jedinak he may have a license to sit back more where he may be more comfortable, whereas playing with Jedinak he always had to push on to support.

Also the general effect MacArthur has on our side is big, very good connecting defence into attack.

Think the bet is still there, but thanks for bringing it up Dazzler.

Yeah I should have said, I don't mind the bet at all. I'm always interested in any 10/1 away side in the Prem and Man Utd are no great shakes at all with their own injury problems. God knows what defence they are going to put out.
+1 from me for a small bet.

[TightEnd]

betvictor

Manchester United v Crystal Palace Crystal Palace (Match Betting - 90 Mins) Odds: 21/2 Stake: 20.00 Possible Return:  230.00

 Leeds United v Blackpool Leeds United (Match Betting - 90 Mins) Odds: 5/6 Stake: 30.00 Possible Return:  55.00

[Tal]

Fazio has more red cards this season than Soldado has goals. That is the success rate of our transfer policy.

[tikay]

Fazio has more red cards this season than Soldado has goals. That is the success rate of our transfer policy.

At least you won. Don't think any of the English teams did that in the CL this week?

[arbboy]

Fazio has more red cards this season than Soldado has goals. That is the success rate of our transfer policy.

At least you won. Don't think any of the English teams did that in the CL this week?

Looking forward to Steve Freeth from 365 coming on at the races this Saturday morning for the football preview and telling us all how much the firms hate the champions league after filling their satchels so full this week they don't know what to do with it.

[Peter-27]

I LOVE that there is F1 chatter on here

I've had a look at the markets, and there is currently a lot of great spots on the table in my opinion.

Tighty, your analysis is good - and while you are right that I think "Mercedes are still a second ahead of the field", 20/1 on Ricciardo is a decent price - especially in Brazil!

My suggestions:

Race Winner - Daniel Ricciardo @ 20/1 with a tonne of bookies. Min bet. Reasoning as above.
Points Finish - Romain Grosjean @ 11/2 with Sporting Bet and Betway. Min bet. Again, it's Brazil, 11/2 is a great price!
Top 6 Finish - Nico Hulkenberg @ 10/1 with Paddy Power. Force India always strong at Brazil, worth a punt at this price. Min bet.
Group A (RIC/BOT/MAS/VET) - Valtteri Bottas @ 2/1 with Bet365 and Paddy Power. Stronger chance than 2/1. Min bet.
Group B (ALO/BUT/MAG/RAI) - Fernando Alonso @ EVS with Paddy Power. Can't quite believe this price against his teammate and the McLarens. Recommend £20, take advantage!

[Oxford_HRV]

what are the group A/B bets?

[Tonji]

what are the group A/B bets?

here:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/brazilian-grand-prix/group-a

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/brazilian-grand-prix/group-b

[Oxford_HRV]

thankyou

[Mark_Porter]

Stuart Downing is flourishing this season playing in behind the strikers.

He only has two goals so far but his stats have looked really good - particularly recently. In the last 4 games he has had 8 shots in the box - the only midfielder in the league who has managed more is Sanchez.

He is really starting to look threatening now at the tip of the diamond. West Ham themselves are also just a much better attacking side this season - 89 shots in the box sees them sit 4th behind City, Arsenal and Saints for close range efforts.

West Ham have Villa at home this weekend and they are well fancied. They actually have a nice run of fixtures up to Christmas, I fancy Downing to grab 3 or 4 more between now and then. He is 4/1 anytime in a few spots for this weekend, I wanted to see a smidge bigger to be honest but don't think its a bad bet for £10.

[arbboy]

This is one for the ISA's/long term money buyers out there but it's not very often you can lay a 40-50/1 shot at 8/1 for good money on betfair but this is one of these rare examples.  Several firms on oddschecker are freely offering 10/1 on a one way book without offering the other side of the bet - this usually means the 10/1 is a mile away from the true price on most 'one way specials'.  I put up a decent lump at 8/1 on betfair yday and it has all been hoovered within 24 hours) and the bet has a 27% chance of being settled by 3pm this Saturday.  I am not going to take the credit for this because Dubai put me onto this but i have done the maths on it and it's got to be close to a maximum bet if you have spare cash to tie up potentially for a few months.  I will let tighty decide what fred decides to tie up as i appreciate the forward book is large as a % of working capital but i have had a maximum bet on this fwiw.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/chelsea/to-remain-unbeaten

This is one of those markets which really attracts the casual punter who don't really think the bet through and how hard it is to stay unbeaten all season (28 games from now) and fav/longshot bias also comes into play as well as the time value of money.   Basically there is a massive imbalance between backers and layers of this type of bet on betfair which helps to cause these market 'inefficiencies'.

I have computed the rough price of Chelski to remain unbeaten for the rest of the league season using a conservative approach assuming chelski will be at full strength in every game (which they obviously won't be for 28 more league games) and what price they would be for each game given they are still unbeaten when the game takes place and i make the true price of this happening around a 40/1 shot.

If we factor in the fact if they are unbeaten approaching March/April it's virtually certain they will have the league wrapped up and rotate the squad a lot more for the later games for champions league/fa cup commitments (these are obviously more likely if they are still unbeaten in the league by this stage) which will mean they are a much shorter price potentially for several of these games than i have used to arrive at the 40/1 'true' price which would make the bet even more unlikely than 40/1.  

Secondly, their final two games are against potential relegation fighting teams (sunderland and WBA) but i have priced these as if they are competitive games (the league will be wrapped up if it goes down to the final two bets) and Chelski would be pretty likely to either be in the FA cup final and/or champions league final if they were this dominant and again rest players.  Conversely the other two teams could easily go off much shorter in the betting than i have used for this calculation.

Whatever scenario you use they are around 4/1 to still be unbeaten after the xmas period on the estimated match prices.  This highlights the value of this bet alone.  

Even if you don't want to lump on at 1/8 you can invest a large sum and 'arb' it every game by laying Chelski's opponents and 'save up' all the winnings on this 40/1 28 team acca to more than cover the losses of backing an 1/8 loser if you are really risk averse and you will get a much bigger totally risk free return on your money than any isa could offer.  Either way it merits a substantial investment and the bet is nearly 28% likely to be settled in just over 36 hours!

I will keep a record of the inverse of the bf sp of every Chelski opponent until the end of the season/the streak ends to try and demonstrate how much 'value' is on offer with this opportunity.  Barring the demolition job at Everton they have hardly been playing like world beaters in the EPL/Champions league(even the carling cup) to justify this incredibly short price so early on in the season.

They also have a very tough xmas fixture list on paper with 3 away games out of 4 in 10 days (Stoke/Spurs/Southampton) with West Ham on boxing day at home to break it up.

 

[arbboy]

If the 8/1 price is currently correct and they don't lose to Lolapool at the weekend they should be 11/2 to stay unbeaten after the game (9.0/1.39 (inverse of 13/5 the liverpool match price)=6.5ish=11/2).  I would be amazed if the price changes much at all which kinda illustrates the value.

As they are around a 4/1 shot to be unbeaten after the festival period this would also then make them a 4/5 shot (9.0/5.0 = 1.8 ) to remain unbeaten for the rest of the season after new years day.  When you look at these scenarios it makes you realise the value involved in the bet.

[TheDazzler]

Looks like a pretty terrific bet. 8/1 is so lol!
Off the top of my head, I might have thought 25/1 was about right but I'm sure your maths isn't far off.

[Stopsleyhatter]

Awful performance from Cincy abandoned the running game far too early and Dalton seems to be proving his critics right.