Tips for Tikay

[MereNovice]

At what stage does the amnesty for cards kick in, if there is one?
If it's after the quarter-finals does that give players licence to get booked late in this match?
Does it work like that?

[TightEnd]

At what stage does the amnesty for cards kick in, if there is one?
If it's after the quarter-finals does that give players licence to get booked late in this match?
Does it work like that?

Single yellow card cautions are erased at the conclusion of the quarter-finals, and are not carried over to the semi-finals (so that a player can only be suspended for the final by getting a red card in the semi-final)

So yes, that might be an argument against.

[MereNovice]

Teams for the England v South Africa rugby on Saturday:

England : A Goode; C Ashton, J Joseph, M Tuilagi, B Foden; T Flood, D Care; A Corbisiero, D Hartley (capt), D Cole, T Palmer, G Parling, T Johnson, J Haskell, T Waldrom.

Replacements : L Mears, J Marler, M Botha, P Dowson, L Dickson, O Farrell, B Barritt.

South Africa : G Aplon; J P Pietersen, J de Villiers (capt), W Olivier, B Habana; M Steyn, F Hougaard; T Mtawarira, B du Plessis, J du Plessis, E Etzebeth, J Kruger, M Coetzee, J Potgieter, P Spies.

Replacements : A Strauss, W Kruger, F van der Merwe, R Kankowski, R Pienaar, B Basson, E Jantjies.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/18530538


I think that I'd have liked to see Johnny May on the wing and Foden at full-back.
Good decision to go with Waldrom, I reckon.

South Africa have picked a traditional open-side with Potgeiter - definitely more of a break-down specialist.
Waldrom is 6/1 to score a try any time.
http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/internationals/international-matches/south-africa-v-england/anytime-tryscorer

How's the weather?

[TightEnd]

Very promising.

http://www.weathercity.com/za/ec/port_elizabeth/

We need it heavy and wet, and to edge a kicking duel.


To do that, we have to hold the powerful SA forwards who ran amok at altitude last weekend for the first 40 minutes until England brought it back

We have a sweat, whatever.

[aaron1867]

I can't see the Czechs frustrating Portugal to be honest.

Czechs have come up against one good side in the tournament and they showed so much attacking ability, it just ripped them apart. I think Russia Ended up winning 4-1.

[Teacake]

I would tend to agree with Aaron on this one. The Czechs haven't set out to frustrate in any of their games so far. They have played one decent team in Russia and were very open and offensive against Greece and Poland. They have played above themselves so far, they came from Scotlands qualifying group and were dreadful in a weak group.  The argument really is on the price, I felt 4/5 was slightly too big and has gone now in any case, best price currently 3/4.

[bobby1]

England v Italy to be decided on penalties is 9/2.

The best price for a draw is 9/4, I have no idea how this market is priced up but surely double that for an additional 30 mins is too big?

£40 on this unless my theory can be blown out of the water.

Its a bad price Teacake, to win it obv has to be a draw at ft and a draw after extra time. At 9/4 the draw at ft, the 9/2 to be decided on pens makes the draw price in extra time about 1.69 which is miles too short. Draw would be about evens unless it had been a truly awful tight game but even then it wouldn't be as short as 1.69

At 9/4 the draw at ft and evens the draw should it go to extra time then it should be 11/2 to go to pens.

cheers

Thanks Bobby that makes sense when you break it down like that.

Enjoy it when someone like Bobby breaks this stuff down, I was with Teacake in thinking that looked like a rick. The one problem I have with it tho is that is it really evens a goal in extra time? Of all the games I've seen go to extra time I'd be shocked if one in two had any goals in them at all. If I knew where to get some stats to back them up I would find them. I defo wouldn't wanna lay anyone evens that a match that is level at 90 mins finishes level aet. Maybe I should just back every game I watch to be a draw aet to test my theory

Hi Jeff,

The evens in extra time was for any draw at the end of extra time.

I think the bet Teacake likes has every chance, the best way to bet it tho is to take a bet on the draw now ( Stan are now 11/5 from 9/4 and I cant see that being beaten) and then if it goes to extra time reinvest the winnings on the draw price before extra time kicks off.

cheers

[redarmi]

I am sure when I have seen both these teams play they both have had quite a few corners, so with this being simply a KO game, I can see the percentage chance of more corners to be more likely.

As for the game, Portugal are favourites (8/11 with Hills) and are a much better side than the Czechs. The Czechs had an easier group, scraped through, whilst Portugal had a much harder group and also scraped through and beat Holland! Not far away from getting something against Germany either.

Therefore I see a winning single for Portugal to win tonight.

Any specials? Ronaldo to score at anytime and Portugal to win is 2/1 with Hills also. In my view, a terrible price, but will it happen? I think so.

Postiga also seems to get a few chances every game too, but I see him as very slow, but I think there is a decent chance of him getting on the scoresheet too.

I can see a Portugal rout here.

PS how are things going since taking over?

Aaron - Do you think there is anything in your post here that the odds compilers haven't noticed or factored into their prices?  Do you think, for example, they may not have noticed that Portugal beat Holland?  or that the Czechs had a fairly easy group and Portugal a hard one?  If you want to win over a series of bets rather than just one then your analysis has to be so much deeper than this.  I think there is an argument that Portugal were too big at 4/5 but at 8/11 they need to win the game almost 60% of the time for the 8/11 to be a bet.  That 8/11 is an estimation that initally came about from some odds compilers that spend 40+ hours a week analysing football and then was put out to millions of bettors in the market to bet into shape.  Those millions of bettors include syndicates and groups that have invested huge amounts of time and money into the analysis of football and make a very good living from it. 

Now of course that doesn't mean that you can't beat the market or be better than it but a legitimate reason for a bet would be that you have analysed the stats and the Czechs are substantially worse in games where Rosicky doesn't play or, if you wanted to back the Czechs, Portugal have had to fly over 1500 miles to their first three games whilst the Czechs have had a five minute bus ride to their games.  Even something as simple as analysing the height of defenders versus the height of a teams attackers can give you an edge or an angle that might not have been considered by the odds compilers and public.

[MereNovice]

Not really a tip for this thread but Angelique Kerber can be backed at 66/1 for Wimbledon on Boylesport and laid at 45/1 on Betfair if anyone wants to tie up money on Betfair for an arb/freeroll.

[redarmi]

Ladbrokes occasionally throw up strange prices on the correct scores and tonight 2-0 Portugal seems to offer a bit of value @ 8/1.  I make the correct price 15/2 so not a big rick but worth a minimum bet imo.  They also have 1-0 Portugal at 6/1 which I make exactly the right price so for those that like Portugal and want an interest then dutching 1-0 and 2-0 with Ladbrokes is a decent way to play it.

[AceHighSuited]

just a quick e/w bet that i think reps some value in the opener at Ripon i have had positive vie for Smooth Handle if you can get ant of the 12/1 have £25 e/w  i have one for Ascot latertoday but want to check something out first.

Was unsure about posting this ter disaster sectors ins ball other day.

[MereNovice]

just a quick e/w bet that i think reps some value in the opener at Ripon i have had positive vie for Smooth Handle if you can get ant of the 12/1 have £25 e/w  i have one for Ascot latertoday but want to check something out first.

Was unsure about posting this ter disaster sectors ins ball other day.

Welcome to the thread.
May I ask where the positive vibes arose from?

Does anyone have any comments?

[JaffaCake]

England v Italy to be decided on penalties is 9/2.

The best price for a draw is 9/4, I have no idea how this market is priced up but surely double that for an additional 30 mins is too big?

£40 on this unless my theory can be blown out of the water.

Its a bad price Teacake, to win it obv has to be a draw at ft and a draw after extra time. At 9/4 the draw at ft, the 9/2 to be decided on pens makes the draw price in extra time about 1.69 which is miles too short. Draw would be about evens unless it had been a truly awful tight game but even then it wouldn't be as short as 1.69

At 9/4 the draw at ft and evens the draw should it go to extra time then it should be 11/2 to go to pens.

cheers

Thanks Bobby that makes sense when you break it down like that.

Enjoy it when someone like Bobby breaks this stuff down, I was with Teacake in thinking that looked like a rick. The one problem I have with it tho is that is it really evens a goal in extra time? Of all the games I've seen go to extra time I'd be shocked if one in two had any goals in them at all. If I knew where to get some stats to back them up I would find them. I defo wouldn't wanna lay anyone evens that a match that is level at 90 mins finishes level aet. Maybe I should just back every game I watch to be a draw aet to test my theory

Hi Jeff,

The evens in extra time was for any draw at the end of extra time.

I think the bet Teacake likes has every chance, the best way to bet it tho is to take a bet on the draw now ( Stan are now 11/5 from 9/4 and I cant see that being beaten) and then if it goes to extra time reinvest the winnings on the draw price before extra time kicks off.

cheers

Yeh Phil defo seems the best way, was just surprised u get evens on a draw at the end of extra time if u place it at the end of normal time, more than 50% of games seem to go to pennos when they go to extra time but I have no facts or proof of that, just seems that way to me

[ACE2M]

just a quick e/w bet that i think reps some value in the opener at Ripon i have had positive vie for Smooth Handle if you can get ant of the 12/1 have £25 e/w  i have one for Ascot latertoday but want to check something out first.

Was unsure about posting this ter disaster sectors ins ball other day.

Welcome to the thread.
May I ask where the positive vibes arose from?

Does anyone have any comments?

Tikay does not back 'tips'

[MereNovice]

Ladbrokes occasionally throw up strange prices on the correct scores and tonight 2-0 Portugal seems to offer a bit of value @ 8/1.  I make the correct price 15/2 so not a big rick but worth a minimum bet imo.  They also have 1-0 Portugal at 6/1 which I make exactly the right price so for those that like Portugal and want an interest then dutching 1-0 and 2-0 with Ladbrokes is a decent way to play it.

Portugal conceded a goal in each of their group matches.
Czech Republic scored in each of their group matches.

Does this get factored into these prices?

It's very difficult for us recreational punters to grasp what is involved in setting these prices.