Two quid? Thought Fred's minimum stake was a fiver? What happened to 'Bet Like Men'?
I think it was interesting that Green Bay played exclusively last week with Aaron Rodgers in either the shotgun or the pistol formations (for non-NFLers, that means he was a little further back than normal), with the point being he has a little more time in theory to do his thing. Against Seattle, that won't work, because they rank far far better against that set-up than they do against quarterbacks under
center (where they're a surprising 19th in the NFL on opposing Quarterback Rating -
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nfc-championship-preview-packers-vs-seahawks/).
My own armchair expectation is that Seattle will look to attack Eddie Lacy. If he gets hurt, he gets hurt. He's already carrying a knock, after all. With James Starks getting carries, Seattle's odds get even better and they know it. They want to force Rodgers to stand still with the ball and make him gamble on third and long. So, get tight inside and attack round one side, rather than blitz and risk leaving holes. It's not like Rodgers is going to want to run into the space left in the other side when chased. This is Defensive Coordinator thinking 101 here, but sometimes the simplest tactics are the best.
When the teams played in week one, GB took a lot of stick for not targeting the side of the field that Seattle's supreme Cornerback Richard Sherman was defending. That won't change dramatically, but it surely has to change at some point tonight. Sherman will likely end up covering Davante Adams, who you can get 10/11 for over 38.5 yards if that appeals.
An interesting one might be
Andrew Quarless. He's a tight end for the Packers and is a common look for Aaron Rodgers in the redzone. In games where the Packers have lost this season, he's tended to get more receptions.
WK Game Date Opp Result G GS Rec Yds Avg Lng TD
1 09/04 @ SEA L 16-36 1 0 3 26 8.7 18 0
2 09/14 NYJ W 31-24 1 0 1 8 8.0 8 0
3 09/21 @ DET L 7-19 1 0 4 43 10.8 18 1
4 09/28 @ CHI W 38-17 1 1 -- -- -- -- --
5 10/02 MIN W 42-10 1 1 2 19 9.5 10 0
6 10/12 @ MIA W 27-24 1 1 2 11 5.5 7 1
7 10/19 CAR W 38-17 1 1 1 9 9.0 9 0
8 10/26 @ NO L 23-44 1 1 2 19 9.5 13 0
9 Bye -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
10 11/09 CHI W 55-14 1 1 2 10 5.0 6 1
11 11/16 PHI W 53-20 1 1 2 35 17.5 24 0
12 11/23 @ MIN W 24-21 1 0 2 50 25.0 34 0
13 11/30 NE W 26-21 1 1 2 17 8.5 9 0
14 12/08 ATL W 43-37 1 0 3 52 17.3 30 0
15 12/14 @ BUF L 13-21 1 1 1 7 7.0 7 0
16 12/21 @ TB W 20-3 1 1 2 17 8.5 16 0
17 12/28 DET W 30-20 1 1 0 0 -- -- 0
TOTAL 16 11 29 323 11.1 34 3
And last week:
19 01/11 DAL W 26-21 1 0 4 31 7.8 13 1
I've tried to find a comparable game or two to match this up to today. The easy one is the week one game against Seattle and, while there are some differences, Rodgers was put under a lot of pressure on one side in that game and it was one of the defining features of the game. Against Detroit, the Lions roared towards Rodgers and limited him to 162 passing yards, sacking him twice (with a third called back for defensive holding). In the New Orleans game, it's worth noting that the Saints are the best ranked team against opposing Tight Ends (DVOA, per football outsiders) and Buffalo are number 2 in the same list. Seattle are only 18th.
You can get over 22.5 receiving yards at 10/11 with the Shouty Red Man. I think this is a nice spot. Depending on what our Elders think, recommend either £22 or £33.
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