Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Morning both Mr T's.

A tentative toe back in the waters. Last week I was close to putting Huddersfield to beat Leeds at Rugby League as a tip. I backed it myself and saw Huddersfield give away an easy 3 score lead, then come back and take the lead with 3 minutes to go only for a fluke kick to go against them and lose by 4 points. Leeds still have the old men, Sinfield, Maguire, and Peacock in the crucial positions. At times it was a bit like watching an episode of Last of the summer wine.

Playing away at Hull will be Leed's hardest game so far and we get almost 2-1 on Hull. To beat Leeds they have to defend well in the outside channel as in Hall, Hardaker, and Watkins they have 3 big powerful runners. But apart from that Leeds have little to offer and I will continue to look to oppose them.

Suggest £20 Hull @ 15/8 with betfred.

    Bet Reference: 702806805
    Single
            Hull FC v Leeds Rhinos
            Hull FC 9/5   
        Match Winner
    Total Stake: (20.00 x 1) 20.00
    Possible Payout (inc. stake) 56.00


Betfred is currently resting, unfunded, so had to go elsewhere

we will sort a few accounts out when time and allotments allow, as long as it doesn't all kick off again :-)

[TightEnd]

Line for snp seats is currently 42.5 i would think they will do much better maybe not aswell as current polls though
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/04/snp-set-for-56-of-59-scottish-seats-in-general-election-poll-suggests

suggest £30 @10/11 or better for over 42.5 seats for snp in mays election

Ashcroft was interesting yesterday

i was reading http://www.psa.ac.uk/sites/default/files/PSA%20GE%20Election%20Predictions%20Report.pdf

and in that it contains the following predictions (on page 5)

Click to see full-size image.

i was trying to marry that, and Ashcroft up to o/u 42 seats and wondering whether incumbency and the (proven, i think, usually for the tories but the libdems apply this time) shame factor of telling a pollster you were voting for an unpopular party, only to reverse at the ballot box could mean that Ashcroft was way overstating the snp?

anyway, you've plenty of time in hospital to read the pdf. Hope you are felling a bit better

[TightEnd]

and this was one analysis of the PSA report that would back up Ironside's view

http://may2015.com/featured/experts-dont-think-snp-will-fade-but-inexplicably-predict-they-will-only-win-29-seats/

(throwing it open to feedback anyway, lest there are other opinions on here)

[Doobs]

I haven't got the original handicap, but suspect Liverpool and Palace are probably just about above average right now.  There isn't much between them on handicap.  I expect Southampton, Stoke and West Ham are probably on top right now.  Maybe Swansea and Man U overachieving too?? I am guessing 1st isn't really possible but top 4 is still a possibility for both.

I might email Hills and try and get the original handicap.  

Hills hcap for EPL as per the RP pre season football guide (i still got a copy)

chelski scr
MC +2
MU +8
ars +8
liverpool +14
spurs +20
everton +26
Newc +34
Stoke+36
soton +34
Swans +40
sund +40
villa +38
WH +40
hull +42
WBA +42
Leics +42
CP +46
QPR +44
Burnely +50

Cheers.  Will do a spreadsheet tonight, but guessing top 4 are Southampton, Stoke, Swansea and Wham.  We need a couple of them to fade, but think our 2 must be average or better.

[TightEnd]

8 left in the champ hurdle.  How likely all 8 run?  just thinking of getting the 1/4 1,2,3 now nrnb as every horse is ew value anyway.  If there are 1 or 2 nr's then 1/4 123 is a gift.  Anyone got any thoughts?

Ladbrokes gone 10/3 the new one today for example (so 5/6 a place when its 1/2 a place on bf) and that assumes all 8 run if it cuts up to 5 or 6 runners then it's a massive freeroll betting early.

Be careful with this, lads are apparently saying antepost rules don't apply and will only pay 2 places with an NR

Seems sneaky but just check terms with different books I guess

Incredible if Lads are pulling that stunt.  How is this not an ante post market?  If you were betting on a Monday morning for the feature race on the Saturday Ante post rules would apply.  This is 6 days away from the race so how do ante post rules not apply?  It's not my fault they want to bet to 1/4 123 and go top price every horse in the race in a terrible ew race.

for reference

[BigAdz]

Wonderful stitich up job on UKIP on last night.

Made out everyone that even dares to think they have a point was a complete lunatic. Great viewing, and pretty sure it won't help their cause.

[Ironside]

In the last election in scotland snp took 53 out of 73 seats in first past the post. That was before the referendum. The 45% are more likely to vote in the general election and are very vocal at present with many former labour fans switching to snp. There is no reason for snp not to take a near clean sweep in election with the only reason given for 29 was that 50 seems a very high number

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-snp

its 10/11 o/u 43.5 at 365

as it stands there is nowhere i can get on at 10/11, unless someone can help

[exstream]

League of Legends. Possible to bet with 365 and Paddy Power.

Elements at 11/10 to beat Unicorns of Love is a great price. Elements now have one of the best supports in Europe starting in their side. They have been inconsistent however, UoL are a new team to the LCS up against the veteran side Elements. Elements are on blue side, the favourable side with first choice of bans and picks and I reckon the odds are the wrong way round.

Paddy power link - http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go_type&category=SPORTS&disp_cat_id=&ev_class_id=403&ev_type_id=25379&ev_oc_grp_ids=1988201&bir_index=

[Ironside]

I can hardly get on blonde nevermind a bet on lol

As with the scottish election i am much more on the side of the bookies line than the experts although i think they have under estimated the feelings on the 45. In scotland snp are the major party now and no one really disgruntled with the way they are running holyrood people are flocking to them in large numbers

[T_Mar]

8 left in the champ hurdle.  How likely all 8 run?  just thinking of getting the 1/4 1,2,3 now nrnb as every horse is ew value anyway.  If there are 1 or 2 nr's then 1/4 123 is a gift.  Anyone got any thoughts?

Ladbrokes gone 10/3 the new one today for example (so 5/6 a place when its 1/2 a place on bf) and that assumes all 8 run if it cuts up to 5 or 6 runners then it's a massive freeroll betting early.

Be careful with this, lads are apparently saying antepost rules don't apply and will only pay 2 places with an NR

Seems sneaky but just check terms with different books I guess

Incredible if Lads are pulling that stunt.  How is this not an ante post market?  If you were betting on a Monday morning for the feature race on the Saturday Ante post rules would apply.  This is 6 days away from the race so how do ante post rules not apply?  It's not my fault they want to bet to 1/4 123 and go top price every horse in the race in a terrible ew race.

Friend was at preview evening in Leeds last night and Sky were openly saying they were doing same... Not that anyone can get on with sky for this to matter but def worth checking when placing bets

[arbboy]

8 left in the champ hurdle.  How likely all 8 run?  just thinking of getting the 1/4 1,2,3 now nrnb as every horse is ew value anyway.  If there are 1 or 2 nr's then 1/4 123 is a gift.  Anyone got any thoughts?

Ladbrokes gone 10/3 the new one today for example (so 5/6 a place when its 1/2 a place on bf) and that assumes all 8 run if it cuts up to 5 or 6 runners then it's a massive freeroll betting early.

Be careful with this, lads are apparently saying antepost rules don't apply and will only pay 2 places with an NR

Seems sneaky but just check terms with different books I guess

Incredible if Lads are pulling that stunt.  How is this not an ante post market?  If you were betting on a Monday morning for the feature race on the Saturday Ante post rules would apply.  This is 6 days away from the race so how do ante post rules not apply?  It's not my fault they want to bet to 1/4 123 and go top price every horse in the race in a terrible ew race.

Friend was at preview evening in Leeds last night and Sky were openly saying they were doing same... Not that anyone can get on with sky for this to matter but def worth checking when placing bets

Skybet have the race in their ante post section.  I appreciate it is not a good race to lay ew bets in but then no one is forcing these firms to go NRNB, 1/4 123 etc when the race is still an ante post race and therefore ante post rules should apply.  It doesn't mention anywhere on their website below that if there are less than 8 runners then the place terms will change so why would any punter expect not to be paid out 3 places under standard ante post rules?  Are they only going to pay two places on ante post bets placed last year if there are only 7 runners?

https://www.skybet.com/horse-racing/cheltenham/event/17556785

[T_Mar]

8 left in the champ hurdle.  How likely all 8 run?  just thinking of getting the 1/4 1,2,3 now nrnb as every horse is ew value anyway.  If there are 1 or 2 nr's then 1/4 123 is a gift.  Anyone got any thoughts?

Ladbrokes gone 10/3 the new one today for example (so 5/6 a place when its 1/2 a place on bf) and that assumes all 8 run if it cuts up to 5 or 6 runners then it's a massive freeroll betting early.

Be careful with this, lads are apparently saying antepost rules don't apply and will only pay 2 places with an NR

Seems sneaky but just check terms with different books I guess

Incredible if Lads are pulling that stunt.  How is this not an ante post market?  If you were betting on a Monday morning for the feature race on the Saturday Ante post rules would apply.  This is 6 days away from the race so how do ante post rules not apply?  It's not my fault they want to bet to 1/4 123 and go top price every horse in the race in a terrible ew race.

for reference

That's as it stands Tighty, but lads are claiming these are now 'early prices' and terms subject to change if any NR's as opposed to antepost rules which means 3 places regardless of any NR.... It's pretty dirty on their part

Might not be all books though do just putting it out there to check

[TightEnd]

League of Legends. Possible to bet with 365 and Paddy Power.

Elements at 11/10 to beat Unicorns of Love is a great price. Elements now have one of the best supports in Europe starting in their side. They have been inconsistent however, UoL are a new team to the LCS up against the veteran side Elements. Elements are on blue side, the favourable side with first choice of bans and picks and I reckon the odds are the wrong way round.

Paddy power link - http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go_type&category=SPORTS&disp_cat_id=&ev_class_id=403&ev_type_id=25379&ev_oc_grp_ids=1988201&bir_index=

I must be old

what does this mean? "Elements now have one of the best supports in Europe starting in their side."

what does this mean? "Elements are on blue side, the favourable side with first choice of bans and picks "

anyway, how much do you want on and can anyone get on? (thread can't at b365 or pp)

[TightEnd]

I can hardly get on blonde nevermind a bet on lol

As with the scottish election i am much more on the side of the bookies line than the experts although i think they have under estimated the feelings on the 45. In scotland snp are the major party now and no one really disgruntled with the way they are running holyrood people are flocking to them in large numbers

thanks

if anyone can get us on, great

if not, plenty of indivduals will no doubt follow the tip in anyway