Tips for Tikay

[ripple11]

I can hardly get on blonde nevermind a bet on lol

As with the scottish election i am much more on the side of the bookies line than the experts although i think they have under estimated the feelings on the 45. In scotland snp are the major party now and no one really disgruntled with the way they are running holyrood people are flocking to them in large numbers

thanks

if anyone can get us on, great

if not, plenty of indivduals will no doubt follow the tip in anyway

On...Fred has £30.

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/racing-specials/long-term/cheltenham-festival/biggest-winning-sp

Been looking at this market for a while and i think 365's 2/1 on biggest sp being 50/1 or bigger (assume there won't be any 45/1 returned in this modern age) in any race at the festival looks big to the naked eye.  I have done no research on this stats wise.  Can't believe this will only cop 33% of the time.  Given how many shorties there are this year might actually help this bet as well.  Anyone got any thoughts/stats on this?

[simonnatur]

I make over 40-1 :

36% over last 25 years
40% over last 10 years, but only once in last 6 years - maybe just an anomaly or a new trend?

[arbboy]

I make over 40-1 :

36% over last 25 years
40% over last 10 years, but only once in last 6 years - maybe just an anomaly or a new trend?

Given bf has made the sp % tighter generally the chance of a bigger priced winner should be slightly more likely imo in the last 10 years all other things being equal.  Looks a bet then at 2/1 this year imo.

ty for the stats Simon btw.

[simonnatur]

Arb, Thought this made interesting reading and somewhat related to your question:
http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/tips/2015/outsiders-chance

[arbboy]

Arb, Thought this made interesting reading and somewhat related to your question:
http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/tips/2015/outsiders-chance

Good article by a well informed writer.  Who is the writer?  Never heard of him.

[simonnatur]

Don't know his background, he has a series of articles on that site picking ante post bets for Chelts.

[bunnydas8888]

On phone atm and it doesn't work too good so can't check properly, but, chizzy's price tonight seems a bit out of line? Unbeaten so far, been playing to a decent standard, Ando inconsistent on the perm stage, 5/2 available for chizzy, worth a score? Understand about the draw bets, on that front, barney v huybrechts most likely in my mind.  Arbboy to comment maybe?

[arbboy]

On phone atm and it doesn't work too good so can't check properly, but, chizzy's price tonight seems a bit out of line? Unbeaten so far, been playing to a decent standard, Ando inconsistent on the perm stage, 5/2 available for chizzy, worth a score? Understand about the draw bets, on that front, barney v huybrechts most likely in my mind.  Arbboy to comment maybe?

If you like Chizzy i would be laying Ando (or back Chizz and the draw coupled at best prices to equal take out amounts) rather than backing Chizzy as the current draw price is too big if you think this match is closer than the market does.  You will squeeze another 2% of ev out of the bet long term laying ando rather than backing Chizz.

[tikay]

Lovely to see Fred buzzing again.

Hope you get the lot in tonight's Darts. 

[Marky147]

Lovely to see Fred buzzing again.

Hope you get the lot in tonight's Darts. 

Shouldn't you be getting your whistle on, and your blusher applied?

[MahoganyVic]

Are ladbrokes allowed to get away with this?    Never in my life have I seen a bookmaker change the rules and have EP's more than a week before the race. They even print No Runner No Bet on the slip to make it seem like ante-post.

[arbboy]

Are ladbrokes allowed to get away with this?    Never in my life have I seen a bookmaker change the rules and have EP's more than a week before the race. They even print No Runner No Bet on the slip to make it seem like ante-post.

I know it is a total disgrace.  I bet it is only the champion hurdle they are doing this for as well.  I bet if only 7 run in any other race they will still pay 3 places for bets struck today.

[tikay]

Lovely to see Fred buzzing again.

Hope you get the lot in tonight's Darts. 

Shouldn't you be getting your whistle on, and your blusher applied?

Won't take me long to get my make up on, hard to improve on my natural looks.

Whistle? I'm dressed up to the nines, & look the abso bizz.

[Marky147]

Are ladbrokes allowed to get away with this?    Never in my life have I seen a bookmaker change the rules and have EP's more than a week before the race. They even print No Runner No Bet on the slip to make it seem like ante-post.

I know it is a total disgrace.  I bet it is only the champion hurdle they are doing this for as well.  I bet if only 7 run in any other race they will still pay 3 places for bets struck today.

Pretty sad to see how the mighty have fallen...

Makes you laugh how they weren't even NRNB on many races, and we were a week from the festival!

Saw it mentioned that you had bookies like 'Betbright', 'Betway', and other new/smaller firms all trying to get the punters in, and they were worst price on races they weren't even NRNB on.

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