Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £253.88

Outstanding Bets £4089.94

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=23

A profit of £275 yesterday

Duke beat Wisconscin to win the NCAA Basketball title for a profit of £200

Duke's freshmen scored 60 of Duke's 68 points. No team of freshmen has ever scored more in a National Championship.

Click to see full-size image.

Crystal Palace beat Man City for a profit of £90



one loss, Leeds beat Wakefield by 28 points, not enough to cover the handicap -£15


ongoing positions

the Crystal Palace win was a seriously good result for a number of positions including

- Arsenal to finish 2nd

Click to see full-size image.

- Palace to finish with over 40 points



- Palace premier league handicap



- Palace v WBA and Palace v Hull season points bets
- Palace v Newcastle finishing position

Teams managed in games by Pardew have now won 48 points this season.

Palace have taken 2.0 pts per game with Pardew & 0.85 without him this season. Newcastle have 1.36 with him, 0.69 without him.

In the Championship Watford beat Middlesborough 2-0 and with five games to go are a point off the top, and we have 8-1 on promotion

Click to see full-size image.

Deeney scored and the golden boot table looks as follows, and still an outside chance at the scoop rather than the each way return at 50-1

23 Murphy (Ipswich)
20 Deeney (Watford)
19 Ighalo  (Watford)
18 Jerome (Norwich)
17 Martin (Derby)

In League one Peterborough drew 0-0 at home to Walsall, now 10th six points off the top six and four points above Doncaster who have two games in hand

No goals for Garner in the league one golden boot race, Preston scored 3 yesterday and he remains tied with Williams at the top of the charts with 20 goals each

In League Two Newport lost 2-0 at Exeter and are in 7th, the last play off spot with five games to go

Our two bets so far began their MLB seasons. The Red Sox beat the Phillies 8-0, hopefully a sign that their powerful rebuilt offense will take them somewhere this season. Conversely the White Sox went to World Series runners up Kansas City Royals and were tonked 10-1.

Click to see full-size image.

In Tennis, Delbonnis won his first round match at the US claycourt champs, beating R Berankis 7-6 6-2

In the NHL The Minnesota Wild lost 2-0 to the Winnipeg Jets

 

[tikay]

I never realised how many bets we had riding on Palace, & last night even helped the "Arse to finish 2nd" bet.

I shall now mainly be a Palace fan.

Keep us up to date Ant, please.

[hector62]

Morning Mr T's.

A few weeks ago a young player came up on my radar and tonight he plays in the Houston open. Hyeon Chung is nearing his 19th birthday and is ranked 118 in the world, 20 places higher than tonight's opponent. They have never met before but his performances over the last few weeks should have made him favourite tonight. I can only think that he is not because Arguello is an Argentinian clay courter. I would counteract that by saying that these courts are faster than the European and South American clay courts.

From now on I shall refer to him as Joe 90 so as to avoid typos.

Suggest £15 Joe 90 @ 13/10 bet victor but the 5/4's around are OK too.

[tikay]

Joe 90.

I sense a new Fred hero, & it will give Tighty so much Daily Report ammo.

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Morning Mr T's.

A few weeks ago a young player came up on my radar and tonight he plays in the Houston open. Hyeon Chung is nearing his 19th birthday and is ranked 118 in the world, 20 places higher than tonight's opponent. They have never met before but his performances over the last few weeks should have made him favourite tonight. I can only think that he is not because Arguello is an Argentinian clay courter. I would counteract that by saying that these courts are faster than the European and South American clay courts.

From now on I shall refer to him as Joe 90 so as to avoid typos.

Suggest £15 Joe 90 @ 13/10 bet victor but the 5/4's around are OK too.

Hyeon Chung v Facundo Arguello Hyeon Chung (Match Betting - Match) Odds: 5/4 Stake: 15.00

[BigAdz]

Is it a case of "Everybody Hyeon Chung Tonight"?

[Horneris]

I really like Hyeon, hes going to be good, one to keep an eye on definitely.

I want to join in and get involved tonight but I'm concerned by the fact that he seems to have played 4 matches on clay in his entire life, growing up on hard courts whereas Arguello has probably played about 15,000 matches on clay in his life in South America.

Saying that, its probably factored into the price and it doesn't seem to have hampered him much so far this week.

[Ant040689]

Keep us up to date Ant, please.

May live to regret that.

[TightEnd]

could we have a small value play on Rajasthan in the IPL please?

14/1 e/w 1/3 1,2 Betfrd

17.5 on Betfair

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/indian-premier-league/winner

8 teams, top 4 make the quarters, round robin group stage, they play each other home and away

Rajasthan are the outsiders of 8.

Look at this line up and then ask why?

Rahane
Nair
S Watson
S Smith
Samson
Faulkner
Binny
Southee
Bhatia
Tambe
Kulkarni

Rahane, Smith and the rest of the top six is a competitive line up
they have Faulkner for the death bowling
A touch short in bowling depth, but its a steady line up probably lacking a real match winner especially amongst the spinners

obviously the big boys like CSK, KKR, RCB, Mumbai have a lot of "star power" and in terms of competitive balance this is especially important in the Indian players, as each team has to play 4 overseas only

but we're getting 14-1+ in an 8 horse race in a randomising format where any team can beat any other....we have two of the world's best batsmen, two more world cup winning all-rounders and a decednt shot at being competitive

a column out last week went through every team and wrote as follows

"Rajasthan Royals 16.00

Strengths: In Shane Watson, the captain, Steve Smith and James Faulkner the Royals boast the core of Australia World Cup winning squad. They are another side who are well balanced having hitters at the top, middle and bottom, death bowlers and an army of spinners.

Weaknesses: Although they have an army of spinners, most of them are legspinners and it would be nice if they had a star twirler to complete the line-up. But then they are 16.00.

Squad: Shane Watson(c), Abhishek Nayar, Ajinkya Rahane, Ankit Nagendra Sharma, Ben Cutting, Deepak Hooda, Dhawal Kulkarni, Dishant Yagnik, James Faulkner,Karun Nair, Pravin Tambe, Rahul Tewatia, Rajat Bhatia, Sanju Samson(wk), Steven Smith, Stuart Binny, Tim Southee, Vikramjeet Malik, Chris Morris, Juan Theron, Barinder Singh Saran, Dinesh Salunkhe, Sagar Trivedi, Pardeep Sahu"

https://betting.betfair.com/cricket/indian-premier-league---ipl/ipl-2015-squads-players-teams-060415-194.html"

the betfair price is out over a point since. ignored, under-rated and not particularly fashionable a pick, but therein lies the opportunity

if you look through the squads you'll see its a very competitive heat, probably more competitive than a range of prices 5-2 to 14-1 suggests

small stuff, a £10 in the win market and £10 each way

a value stab at a tough event to bet with much confidence

 

[tikay]

Do it please, Tighty.

And if anyone has any other perceived value bets for this, post them up please, & we can take a look at them as well.

[TightEnd]

 Placed (matched)
Back (Bet For)    Odds    Stake    Profit
Indian Premier League 2015
Rajasthan Royals Winner    17.5    £10.00    
£165.00
Ref: 48643080886M Matched: 16:31 07-Apr-15

£10.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
Indian Premier League - Outrights And Specials
Outright Winner
EW 1/3 1,2    Rajasthan Royals    14/1    
Total stake   £ 20.00
Estimated return   £ 206.67
Full stake   £ 20.00
Full estimated return   £ 206.67

[TightEnd]

peters 11/2 fred

newton 12/1 fred

top northamts scorer div 2 cc

let you decide how much

and i just reminded myself that i forgot about these from Mr Newton which were posted again last night

maiden thread bets

£10.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
County Championship Division 2 - Top Team Batsman
Northamptonshire
   Peters, Stephen    11/2    
Total stake   £ 10.00
Estimated return   £ 65.00
Full stake   £ 10.00
Full estimated return   £ 65.00

£10.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
County Championship Division 2 - Top Team Batsman
Northamptonshire
   Newton, Rob    12/1    
Total stake   £ 10.00
Estimated return   £ 130.00
Full stake   £ 10.00
Full estimated return   £ 130.00

sadly for the rest of you, prepare for tales from Wantage road, erstwhile home of northampton Town FC

[Tal]

A busy few days on Fred, by the looks of it! Well done Moony and others. Fab daily reports, as ever, Tighty.

Scalextric racing and Wealthy Businessman-Sponsored Pyjama Cricket, eh?

Still, all adds to the Novelty portfolio, while we wait for Strictly to start.

[nuros]

Was just looking at the Villa QPR game tonight and was surprised to see over 2.5 goals was odds against. QPRs last 5 have gone over 2.5 (the 2 away games in that period had 4 and 5 goals), Villas last 5 have seen 3 games go over 2.5 tho only 1 was at home, and the last two meetings of Villa at home to QPR have both gone over 2.5 (4 and 5 goals) though the last 3 games where QPR have hosted villa haven't. More importantly both QPR and Villa must try to win this game with a draw not really benefiting either team (although worse for QPR). This along with QPRs defensive record and Sherwoods more offensive Villa makes this a bet imo. Rec £20 @ 23/20 on bfsb

[HutchGF]

could we have a small value play on Rajasthan in the IPL please?

14/1 e/w 1/3 1,2 Betfrd

17.5 on Betfair

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/indian-premier-league/winner

8 teams, top 4 make the quarters, round robin group stage, they play each other home and away

Rajasthan are the outsiders of 8.

Look at this line up and then ask why?

Rahane
Nair
S Watson
S Smith
Samson
Faulkner
Binny
Southee
Bhatia
Tambe
Kulkarni

Rahane, Smith and the rest of the top six is a competitive line up
they have Faulkner for the death bowling
A touch short in bowling depth, but its a steady line up probably lacking a real match winner especially amongst the spinners

obviously the big boys like CSK, KKR, RCB, Mumbai have a lot of "star power" and in terms of competitive balance this is especially important in the Indian players, as each team has to play 4 overseas only

but we're getting 14-1+ in an 8 horse race in a randomising format where any team can beat any other....we have two of the world's best batsmen, two more world cup winning all-rounders and a decednt shot at being competitive

a column out last week went through every team and wrote as follows

"Rajasthan Royals 16.00

Strengths: In Shane Watson, the captain, Steve Smith and James Faulkner the Royals boast the core of Australia World Cup winning squad. They are another side who are well balanced having hitters at the top, middle and bottom, death bowlers and an army of spinners.

Weaknesses: Although they have an army of spinners, most of them are legspinners and it would be nice if they had a star twirler to complete the line-up. But then they are 16.00.

Squad: Shane Watson(c), Abhishek Nayar, Ajinkya Rahane, Ankit Nagendra Sharma, Ben Cutting, Deepak Hooda, Dhawal Kulkarni, Dishant Yagnik, James Faulkner,Karun Nair, Pravin Tambe, Rahul Tewatia, Rajat Bhatia, Sanju Samson(wk), Steven Smith, Stuart Binny, Tim Southee, Vikramjeet Malik, Chris Morris, Juan Theron, Barinder Singh Saran, Dinesh Salunkhe, Sagar Trivedi, Pardeep Sahu"

https://betting.betfair.com/cricket/indian-premier-league---ipl/ipl-2015-squads-players-teams-060415-194.html"

the betfair price is out over a point since. ignored, under-rated and not particularly fashionable a pick, but therein lies the opportunity

if you look through the squads you'll see its a very competitive heat, probably more competitive than a range of prices 5-2 to 14-1 suggests

small stuff, a £10 in the win market and £10 each way

a value stab at a tough event to bet with much confidence

 

I've backed the Sunrisers at 9-1, based on the Warner/Dhawan and Steyn/Boult batting and bowling opening combinations. They are a little light in the spin bowling department but there pace attack is the strongest in the tournament imho.

I've also backed Steve Smith at 28-1ew for top run scorer. Not necessarily 'strongly' recommending either of these bets, just in case anyone wants a little interest bet.

I actually think the teams are failrly evenly balanced this year. There isn't really a hugely standout team, although I suppose Chennai will be there or there abouts come the end.