Tips for Tikay

[Dubai]

I prob bet shorter price team 95% time. I take the prices others hate taking, ie 1/6 when they are 1/8 bf etc

[redarmi]

With US sportsbooks it is often better to bet moneylines from a margin perspective because they retain a 20c line down to say -160 which is a theoretical margin against you of roughly 102.9 against 104.76 in a regular -110 each side handicap bet.  Also there is often more difference between moneylines with sportsbooks than spreads these days and you can sometimes catch a slow moving sportsbook out on moves on moneylines.  Having said that I am one of those mugs that hates betting odds on shorter than say 4/6 even though it is illogical.  In many ways betting long odds on is probably one of the last bastions of 'easy money' because bookies love laying a short one (it is drummed into you from an early age at the firms) and you are more likely to get a lumpy bet and less likely to get shut down etc.

[Hawk]

The "unsettled" £140?

Valencia are currently 1-0 up @ Stoke with 20 mins to go, that'd be handy, the Oscars bet looks nailed on, the Darts, too early to say.

MereNovice is the "Comeback Kid", both his selections got there after torrid starts, but I was only on one.

So, we are up to date, & all to play for.



Keep them coming, please, & thanks for the tips & guidance.

That Vince is a clever old Chap, a bit pedantic at times maybe , but usually spot on with tips with the egg shaped ball  

Define "bit" for me, please Dave.

In the idiomatic sense that it was used by Dave, it means "To a small degree; somewhat". I would add "hardly at all, almost imperceptibly".
I hope that clarifies it sufficiently for you.

P.S. Thanks for the kind words Dave.

Couldn't explain it any better tbf  #imnotgoingtocompetewithspreedsheetnovicewithwordageheisking,  

[Solaris]

Feel free to ignore this Tikay, but tomorrow in the tennis:

Niculescu to beat Kirilenko @ 2.04 is ridiculously big value. I make Niculescu a 1.75 shot.

Can't understand what possible reasoning the market have for making her the underdog. Has won their last two meetings and generally been in very good form. Hate watching her play, but her style is so unbelievably effective.

I'll leave the bet sizing to you, but 100% fancy that bet.

[Junior Senior]

1.87 on betfair niculescu

[Solaris]

1.87 on betfair niculescu

Back up to 1.98.

Very little liquidity in the market right now so odds flying about. Saw her at 2.08 at one point.

Anything above 1.75 is still huge imo.

[tikay]

Feel free to ignore this Tikay, but tomorrow in the tennis:

Niculescu to beat Kirilenko @ 2.04 is ridiculously big value. I make Niculescu a 1.75 shot.

Can't understand what possible reasoning the market have for making her the underdog. Has won their last two meetings and generally been in very good form. Hate watching her play, but her style is so unbelievably effective.

I'll leave the bet sizing to you, but 100% fancy that bet.

Placed this on Betfair, I had £50 @ 1.86, which, apparently, will win £43.

[tikay]

Fancy Michigan State away at Purdue in NCAA basketball. Michigan on good run and Purdue have had off court problems

Betfair around 1-2 AFTER commission on betfair.


Recommend 80 to win 40- starts 6pm

Sky bet are 5-11, which is around 1.45- if betting with them recommend £77 to win £35

Purdue 62, Michigan State 76.

Winner - thank you, Mr S!

19 Feb '12 at 15:33 Sports Betting Purdue Boilermakers v Michigan State Spartans (Michigan State Spartans) £35.00 Internet View Receipt   (Stake was £77)

[tikay]

Running Totals.

Starting Bank - £1,000

_______________________________

Investments;


Camel, Oscars, Best Director, £40 (unsettled)

redarmi, Lucky 15, £30 (returned £18.79)

Chompy, Celeb BB, £10 (lost)

Bobby1, Super Bowl, 1st Receiver, £50 (returned £92.50)

Camel, Super Bowl, MVP, £20 (lost)

Bobby1, Golf, £50 (lost)

Dubai, Super Bowl, Madonna, £100 (returned £150)

Bobby1, Super Bowl Shirt, £10 (lost)

Dubai, PL Darts, Anderson 180's, £50 (unsettled)

MereNovice, RL 2nd half points, £50, (returned £86.56)

Bobby1, Gunter goals, £20, (lost)

Bazzaboy, Darts, Hamilton, £50 (lost)

maldini, Valencia to beat Stoke, £50 (returned £125)

Horneris, Stoke to beat Crawley T, £50 (returned £102.50)

Dubai, Mich State, £77 (returned £112)

Solaris, Niculescu Tennis, £50 (unsettled)

TOTAL STAKES = £707

£1,000 minus £707 = £293

__________________________________

Returns,

Lucky15, (redarmi) £18.79

Super Bowl Receiver, (Bobby1) £92.50

Super Bowl Madonna (Dubai) £150

Rugby League (MereNovice) £86.56

Valencia (maldini) £125

Stoke (Horneris) £102.50

Michigan NCCA (Dubai) £112

TOTAL Returns = £687.35

____________________________________________


£1,000 minus £707 = £293 + £687.35 = £980.35

____________________________________________

Unsettled Bets £140

[tikay]

In summary, our original £1,000 is now £980.35, & we have £140 of bets are still "in-running". (Oscars Best Director, Darts, most 180's, & Niculescu,WPT Tennis).

I think.

[The Camel]

In summary, our original £1,000 is now £980.35, & we have £140 of bets are still "in-running". (Oscars Best Director, Darts, most 180's, & Niculescu,WPT Tennis).

I think.

You doing well, but not well enough sir.

You keep taking a worse price than advised, which really is aginst the point of the thread, no?

Solaris thought that tennis player was good value at 2.04, not sure what he thinks at 1.86!

[tikay]

In summary, our original £1,000 is now £980.35, & we have £140 of bets are still "in-running". (Oscars Best Director, Darts, most 180's, & Niculescu,WPT Tennis).

I think.

You doing well, but not well enough sir.

You keep taking a worse price than advised, which really is aginst the point of the thread, no?

Solaris thought that tennis player was good value at 2.04, not sure what he thinks at 1.86!

I cannot always get the "advised" price, mainly because I am not always available @ the right moment, & it has gone. As a general rule, if I can get a price pretty close to "advised", I make a judgement, & if the price still looks "value, I still make the bet.

The Tennis bet by Solaris is a good example, as I noted that he subsequently said (11.20pm last night) .....

Back up to 1.98.

Very little liquidity in the market right now so odds flying about. Saw her at 2.08 at one point.

Anything above 1.75 is still huge imo.

When I got Online @ around 2am today, 1.86 was the best available on Betfair (SkyBet went 5.6 both), & I would have swerved it, but as he had noted "anything above 1.75 is still huge, imo" I stuck it on.

I take your point completely, I just have to make judgement calls when I "miss" the advised price. He had said 1.75 was huge, so I took the 1.86.

[MereNovice]

It should be a good match anyway! Both players are in good form.
On Eurosport now.
1.86 still seems value to me.

[Ironside]

went in play at 1,79 so 1.86 still looks value

[Chompy]

Sigh, am I really about to watch a girly tennis match on Eurosport on a Monday morning?

If 1.86 is the biggest available, imo just ask for your bet at evens and leave it there. Fair chance it will be matched before it's turned in play. If not, no bet.