Tips for Tikay

[FUN4FRASER]

Amazing stuff from Dubai. Sort of thing that should make odds setters change markets in the future. Unless we take the analysis down  

If requested, I would.

Its is great analysis for sure  ..How about a "secret room " where only certain people could view  ? (not really possible I assume )I know that generally people will put their bets on before posting but thats not always possible due to account restrictions etc. I have no doubt that " betting industry people " lurk in the shadows so shame to tip them off .

Bet for today Tikay is double your stake on Sunderland. Having watched all the Liverpool  QPR game, QPR were dreadful for 75 minutes (again) then a ridiculous chain of events turned things around. Martin O Neil rested a lot of players against Blackburn but Im sure they will be at full strength tomorrow (even with a cup game due against Everton next Tuesday ) so as Keith says 11-10 is massive and evens is still very good.

[tikay]

Excellent tipping. It's not often these days a market is shown to be so completely incorrect. That post may singlehandedly change the market for 'versus Taylor avg scoring' in the future.

On my Wigan bet, adnmdv is absolutely correct. I think it is probably virtually impossible to make a longterm profit regularly taking even slightly shorter prices than are available as markets are so efficient (the previous darts bet withstanding).
9/1 is available on that bet with Betfair, BlueSq and 888sport. I was just saying that I backed myself @ 8/1 on Bet365 as that is the only online betting account I have.
I freely admit I'm a losing mug punter and I don't have any computer operated models to base my opinions on. I consider myself a decent Fantasy football player and therefore think I have a good feel for Premiership probabilities and stats and instinctively feel that this bet is good. I think Pool are probably over rated and Wigan are underrated and ANYTIME you see a team at 10/1+ in any Prem match, you're not going to be too far off getting some value. I'd be very interested in adnmdv's pricing (as I think he is pretty shrewd) on the DNB price for Wigan in this game, I personally feel ~6/1 is prob about right, or am I being way too optimistic?
Anyway coach Tikay, put me in. You can trust me coach. Put me in. Just for a cheeky £10?

Lol, great stuff.

I WLL do this, even though maybe only for £20 or £25, & thread owes you a favour after you got Man City over the line on Wednesday for us.

This interested me.....

ANYTIME you see a team at 10/1+ in any Prem match, you're not going to be too far off getting some value

Add in the "DNB" element, & you are surely not far off.

It is available in 3 places (regular betting) @ 9/1, but Betfair currently go 11 (almost 10/1 after comm I assume).

Deffo worth a small investment, I'll await further comment before placing though.

[tikay]

Amazing stuff from Dubai. Sort of thing that should make odds setters change markets in the future. Unless we take the analysis down  

If requested, I would.

Its is great analysis for sure  ..How about a "secret room " where only certain people could view  ? (not really possible I assume )I know that generally people will put their bets on before posting but thats not always possible due to account restrictions etc. I have no doubt that " betting industry people " lurk in the shadows so shame to tip them off .

Bet for today Tikay is double your stake on Sunderland. Having watched all the Liverpool  QPR game, QPR were dreadful for 75 minutes (again) then a ridiculous chain of events turned things around. Martin O Neil rested a lot of players against Blackburn but Im sure they will be at full strength tomorrow (even with a cup game due against Everton next Tuesday ) so as Keith says 11-10 is massive and evens is still very good.

Might just consider that Fraser - currently a best priced 11/10 with Boyles.

Hmm....

[MereNovice]

Excellent tipping. It's not often these days a market is shown to be so completely incorrect. That post may singlehandedly change the market for 'versus Taylor avg scoring' in the future.

On my Wigan bet, adnmdv is absolutely correct. I think it is probably virtually impossible to make a longterm profit regularly taking even slightly shorter prices than are available as markets are so efficient (the previous darts bet withstanding).
9/1 is available on that bet with Betfair, BlueSq and 888sport. I was just saying that I backed myself @ 8/1 on Bet365 as that is the only online betting account I have.
I freely admit I'm a losing mug punter and I don't have any computer operated models to base my opinions on. I consider myself a decent Fantasy football player and therefore think I have a good feel for Premiership probabilities and stats and instinctively feel that this bet is good. I think Pool are probably over rated and Wigan are underrated and ANYTIME you see a team at 10/1+ in any Prem match, you're not going to be too far off getting some value. I'd be very interested in adnmdv's pricing (as I think he is pretty shrewd) on the DNB price for Wigan in this game, I personally feel ~6/1 is prob about right, or am I being way too optimistic?
Anyway coach Tikay, put me in. You can trust me coach. Put me in. Just for a cheeky £10?

Lol, great stuff.

I WLL do this, even though maybe only for £20 or £25, & thread owes you a favour after you got Man City over the line on Wednesday for us.

This interested me.....

ANYTIME you see a team at 10/1+ in any Prem match, you're not going to be too far off getting some value

Add in the "DNB" element, & you are surely not far off.

It is available in 3 places (regular betting) @ 9/1, but Betfair currently go 11 (almost 10/1 after comm I assume).

Deffo worth a small investment, I'll await further comment before placing though.

When Betfair quote "11" it is "decimal odds" which is equivalent to 10/1 in old money. If you factor in the 5% commission then you are about 9.5/1.

[FUN4FRASER]

Make sure you take the biggest price avaliable though...you dont want to be told off  

[FUN4FRASER]

Make sure you take the biggest price avaliable though...you dont want to be told off  

just double checking prices for you

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/sunderland-v-qpr/winner

11- 10  @boyles by far the best price if you can get it + if you havent already an account you get a £20 free bet

2.06 on betfair but after commision not goiing to be too far off evens with your deduction rates ...which is the second best price (Evens )same at BET365 sky and Paddy Power

[tikay]

Thanks Mr B.

Just gotta decide if we can risk another £100, what with our roll being a bit thin right now.

Does look a great price though. 

[RickBFA]

Excellent tipping. It's not often these days a market is shown to be so completely incorrect. That post may singlehandedly change the market for 'versus Taylor avg scoring' in the future.

On my Wigan bet, adnmdv is absolutely correct. I think it is probably virtually impossible to make a longterm profit regularly taking even slightly shorter prices than are available as markets are so efficient (the previous darts bet withstanding).
9/1 is available on that bet with Betfair, BlueSq and 888sport. I was just saying that I backed myself @ 8/1 on Bet365 as that is the only online betting account I have.
I freely admit I'm a losing mug punter and I don't have any computer operated models to base my opinions on. I consider myself a decent Fantasy football player and therefore think I have a good feel for Premiership probabilities and stats and instinctively feel that this bet is good. I think Pool are probably over rated and Wigan are underrated and ANYTIME you see a team at 10/1+ in any Prem match, you're not going to be too far off getting some value. I'd be very interested in adnmdv's pricing (as I think he is pretty shrewd) on the DNB price for Wigan in this game, I personally feel ~6/1 is prob about right, or am I being way too optimistic?
Anyway coach Tikay, put me in. You can trust me coach. Put me in. Just for a cheeky £10?

Lol, great stuff.

I WLL do this, even though maybe only for £20 or £25, & thread owes you a favour after you got Man City over the line on Wednesday for us.

This interested me.....

ANYTIME you see a team at 10/1+ in any Prem match, you're not going to be too far off getting some value

Add in the "DNB" element, & you are surely not far off.

It is available in 3 places (regular betting) @ 9/1, but Betfair currently go 11 (almost 10/1 after comm I assume).

Deffo worth a small investment, I'll await further comment before placing though.

I've been meaning to post about this and ask for people's views for a while.

I have been pricing up teams myself and then comparing to the market for a couple of months. After years of being one of the 98% losing punters I've woken up and (on only a 2 month sample) I'm making a regular profit from bets that to me offer value.

One thing has struck me. The odds compilers and then the market seem to shorter the big favourites too much (the Man Utd's etc) and offer too generous odds on the outsider. The classic example of this earlier in the season was Blackburn away at Man Utd being available at 25/1.

It's similar for me in the Premiership with teams like West Brom, Norwich and Swansea playing away from home. In the Championship, where almost anyone can beat anyone else, there can be value from away teams to win/DNB.

Maybe it's because joe public love to pile on home teams and big football favourites when maybe the real value is elsewhere? Or am I missing something?

[The Camel]

Excellent tipping. It's not often these days a market is shown to be so completely incorrect. That post may singlehandedly change the market for 'versus Taylor avg scoring' in the future.

On my Wigan bet, adnmdv is absolutely correct. I think it is probably virtually impossible to make a longterm profit regularly taking even slightly shorter prices than are available as markets are so efficient (the previous darts bet withstanding).
9/1 is available on that bet with Betfair, BlueSq and 888sport. I was just saying that I backed myself @ 8/1 on Bet365 as that is the only online betting account I have.
I freely admit I'm a losing mug punter and I don't have any computer operated models to base my opinions on. I consider myself a decent Fantasy football player and therefore think I have a good feel for Premiership probabilities and stats and instinctively feel that this bet is good. I think Pool are probably over rated and Wigan are underrated and ANYTIME you see a team at 10/1+ in any Prem match, you're not going to be too far off getting some value. I'd be very interested in adnmdv's pricing (as I think he is pretty shrewd) on the DNB price for Wigan in this game, I personally feel ~6/1 is prob about right, or am I being way too optimistic?
Anyway coach Tikay, put me in. You can trust me coach. Put me in. Just for a cheeky £10?

Lol, great stuff.

I WLL do this, even though maybe only for £20 or £25, & thread owes you a favour after you got Man City over the line on Wednesday for us.

This interested me.....

ANYTIME you see a team at 10/1+ in any Prem match, you're not going to be too far off getting some value

Add in the "DNB" element, & you are surely not far off.

It is available in 3 places (regular betting) @ 9/1, but Betfair currently go 11 (almost 10/1 after comm I assume).

Deffo worth a small investment, I'll await further comment before placing though.

I've been meaning to post about this and ask for people's views for a while.

I have been pricing up teams myself and then comparing to the market for a couple of months. After years of being one of the 98% losing punters I've woken up and (on only a 2 month sample) I'm making a regular profit from bets that to me offer value.

One thing has struck me. The odds compilers and then the market seem to shorter the big favourites too much (the Man Utd's etc) and offer too generous odds on the outsider. The classic example of this earlier in the season was Blackburn away at Man Utd being available at 25/1.

It's similar for me in the Premiership with teams like West Brom, Norwich and Swansea playing away from home. In the Championship, where almost anyone can beat anyone else, there can be value from away teams to win/DNB.

Maybe it's because joe public love to pile on home teams and big football favourites when maybe the real value is elsewhere? Or am I missing something?

Odds compilers know that mug punters doing their Saturday coupons love to put the short priced home teams in.

As long as I've been gambling, as a general rule, Man Utd, Celtic, Liverpool, Arsenal, Rangers are almost always under priced, especially at home.

A good way of learning to spot value is to price up games to 95% or even 90% to be mega careful.

Then if a price offered is bigger than your price you might have found some value.

Don't bet these teams blind though.. do some extra research to see if your number might be incorrect. See if there's something you might have missed that the odds compiler has seen.

If not, get your betting boots on.

[TightEnd]

Further to that, this year more than any other recent years the Premiership is quite weak at the top (as shown in Europe) and the incidence of coupon busting shocks is higher. In part this is 2 of the 3 promoted teams doing well too, and being over-priced.

The thing about Wigan is they are are always capable of a big day, quite a bit of flair going forward and occasionally it clicks. Furthermore they tend to come good late in seasons, with a result out of nowhere...

[AndrewT]

Also, I think this season, that even the top teams have quite shonky defences. This has led to some absolute rapes (Man U 8 v Arsenal, Man City 6 at Old Trafford) but it does also mean that if a lesser team can shut down the better team's attack, they have a pretty good chance of nicking a goal or two themselves, whereas in the past those games may have been more likely to finish 0-0.

[tikay]

"shonky"?

Please.

[Graham C]

Wolfsberg to beat Hamburg  at 11/10

Hamburg are in pretty bad form with only 1 win from their last 6 matches.  Wolfsberg are playing quite well at home, 4 wins, 1 draw and a loss in the last 6.  Could be a few goals too, Hamburg have let in 10 in their last 3 games alone where as Wolfsberg have score 3 in both their last two games.

[tikay]

Wolfsberg to beat Hamburg  at 11/10

Hamburg are in pretty bad form with only 1 win from their last 6 matches.  Wolfsberg are playing quite well at home, 4 wins, 1 draw and a loss in the last 6.  Could be a few goals too, Hamburg have let in 10 in their last 3 games alone where as Wolfsberg have score 3 in both their last two games.

That's 7.30 tonight, Mr Tall Person, yes?

[Graham C]

It is