Tips for Tikay

[henrik777]

so you doubled up the Sunderand bet to £200?

Yup! WE averaged 21/20 for the £200.

Biggest bet we've had. Gulp.

3-1 winner.

Sandy

[horseplayer]

fantastic shout with sunderland

and an even better one with wigan really pleased for them love there setup they have there no panic and play the "right" way.

just back from lingfield and was great to see p loco win the derby probably my fav horse in training , didnt back him but he is a real beauty and luckily managed to get fairly close to him after the race.. Baker gave a superb exhibition of how to ride lingfield sitting off a slow pace and kicking at ideal time, great stuff.

[action man]

great coup on wigan

[henrik777]

Excellent tipping. It's not often these days a market is shown to be so completely incorrect. That post may singlehandedly change the market for 'versus Taylor avg scoring' in the future.

On my Wigan bet, adnmdv is absolutely correct. I think it is probably virtually impossible to make a longterm profit regularly taking even slightly shorter prices than are available as markets are so efficient (the previous darts bet withstanding).
9/1 is available on that bet with Betfair, BlueSq and 888sport. I was just saying that I backed myself @ 8/1 on Bet365 as that is the only online betting account I have.
I freely admit I'm a losing mug punter and I don't have any computer operated models to base my opinions on. I consider myself a decent Fantasy football player and therefore think I have a good feel for Premiership probabilities and stats and instinctively feel that this bet is good. I think Pool are probably over rated and Wigan are underrated and ANYTIME you see a team at 10/1+ in any Prem match, you're not going to be too far off getting some value. I'd be very interested in adnmdv's pricing (as I think he is pretty shrewd) on the DNB price for Wigan in this game, I personally feel ~6/1 is prob about right, or am I being way too optimistic?
Anyway coach Tikay, put me in. You can trust me coach. Put me in. Just for a cheeky £10?

ON

£25 @ 9/1, Blue Square, DNB.

Go Dazzler!




Selection 1
 
Selection Wigan Athletic @ 9/1 
Market
 Draw No Bet
 
Event
 English Premier League
Liverpool v Wigan Athletic
2012-03-24 15:00:00
 
Bet Type
 
Bet Type
 Win Single
 
Unit Stake
 £25.00
 
Number of Units
 x1
 
Total Stake
 £25.00
 
Time and Date Placed
 2012-03-23 19:10:03
 
Receipt Number
 O/0891659/0000007
 

2-1 Wigan - winner.

Sandy

[Horneris]

good stuff Dazzler

[Graham C]

great coup on wigan

[TightEnd]

Brilliant stuff on Wigan. Extremely solid bet on Sunderland

Well done on both guys

[TightEnd]

so so day for the Barnet bet would you say Camel?

Daggers won, Plymouth a point so not too bad, and Barnet's tough run starts now

[ripple11]

Brilliant stuff on Wigan. Extremely solid bet on Sunderland

Well done on both guys

 

[smashedagain]

Brilliant stuff on Wigan. Extremely solid bet on Sunderland

Well done on both guys

 

great stuff. When and how much does Tony have to start winning before he hits problems getting bets on?

[TheDazzler]

Delighted with the Wigan win obviously but a lot of things had to go right for it to come off. The Sunderland win was just solid, never in doubt. Good bet Camel.

I've another bet that I think might be decent.
Man United -2 vs Fulham @ 15/8 with Corals.

United are flying with 8 wins and 1 draw in the last 9, everyone is back fit bar Nani (and Vidic + Fletcher obv).
They love playing Fulham and have won their last 8 home games against Fulham scoring 22 (nearly an average of 3 which we need) and have conceded 15 in their last 5 visits. United have scored 73 from 29 games which is more than Chelsea had at this stage of the season when they evenually scored 103.
Ferguson is well aware and has gone on record as saying that goal difference may play a part. They have cut Citys +GD advantage to just 3. They will be looking to wipe it out completely in this game. Rooney has scored 10 in his last 8 games. They won 5-0 at Craven Cottage already this season.

Fulham are the lowest scoring away team in Prem (8 goals) and failed to score in their last 2 matches, which they lost. They are in that 'safe from relegation but nothing to play for' zone so motivation could be a problem for them. Ummmm, what else? Oh yeah, Fulham are just proper crap. Would anybody be surprised if they got done 7-0? I wouldn't.
I think -2 goals is the sweet spot in this bet so maybe £25 on that but I might also look at £10 on -4 goals which is 10/1 with Will Hill. I don't really like 10/1 but I don't see any BetFair prices. If a higher price can be got like 14/1, I'd like it more.
 

[FUN4FRASER]

On Sunday (4pm kick off )West Brom to beat Newcastle  draw no bet looks value @4 -6 with Boyles or Stan James (8-15 elsewhere)  If you cant get 4 -6 or better I suggest no bet

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/west-brom-v-newcastle/draw-no-bet

[TheDazzler]

On Sunday (4pm kick off )West Brom to beat Newcastle  draw no bet looks value @4 -6 with Boyles or Stan James (8-15 elsewhere)  If you cant get 4 -6 or better I suggest no bet

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/west-brom-v-newcastle/draw-no-bet

Why is it value? Not saying it isn't but I think you should make a case.
At a very quick look, West Broms home record (W4 L8) is worse than Newcastles away record (W5 L6) so just from that raw data, I'd prefer Newcastle DNB @ 11/8.

Ok, Olsson is back, Odemwingie may be back and Newcastle have Tiote doubtful and Ryan Taylor still out. West Brom won at Newcastle and are unbeaten in their last 3 against them. Newcastles main threat Ba hasn't scored in 5 games but Cisse has come in and looked decent.
West Brom won their last 2 home games 4-0 vs Sunderland and 1-0 vs Chelsea, which is very good form. Newcastle won last time out but didn't win in 4 previous to that.
Newcastle still have Europe to play for, West Brom have nothing.
A bit of a mixed bag there imo so a no bet match for me either way but maybe others have thoughts.

[MereNovice]

South Africa 474/9 dec.
New Zealand 65/0.

A very gutsy fight from the NZ openers - rather unexpected.

[tikay]

South Africa 474/9 dec.
New Zealand 65/0.

A very gutsy fight from the NZ openers - rather unexpected.

That was not in the plan, but it may work in our favour for the Philander bet. When the going gets tough, the better bowlers should prevail, & the wicket can only worsen, surely? A good pre-lunch session today might turn the tide.