Tips for Tikay

[RickBFA]

That's the crux of the conundrum really. If you were to take the 2.98 now and it got shorter you would have a good bet, if you took it and it got longer it would be a bad bet because the price taken is bottom end. It is 7/4 with a couple of Asian books in a similarly defensive market too.

 the trick is to take your bet and maximise the price you get, its all down to opinion on the price but as a rule betting this early in big % markets will be tough to get the 'best' bet.

So if it is tough to typically get the "best" price this early, is there a typical a good time to take the best price? I appreciate there are some many variables in every situation.

I sometimes take the price the day before a game and often find this is value when compared to an hour before the game. Is this naive?

[The Camel]

interesting post.  First point to make is that generally it is the closing market (in Asia and on Betfair) that is a very good guide not the opening market.  This is largely because the big syndicates and market in general bet later and iron out any inefficiencies.  The opening market can be wrong and often very wrong.  On this particular game..in general I think most people think in terms of personnel Newcastle have over performed and Liverpool underperformed but it does seem a big price although generally I hate taking big prices on things that look big for really obvious, publicly available reasons and recent form, especially televised form.

Ok, well that's interesting. So if my reading of that market is correct, I should be getting on Newcastle now and the market will hopefully reflect that by KO.
My understanding of it was that the big teams were always inherently shorter than they should be due to the mug factor. I work with a Vietnamese guy who supports Pool. He backs them often. He sometimes asks my opinion. He doesn't ever ask whether the price is good, just "Liverpool, win, yes?" with a hopeful look in his eyes. I nearly always say no. It doesn't stop him. He's lost his conkers this season obv.
Lots of fans back their own teams and I would have thought the Asian market (where Pool and United are huuuuuuge) would have a large mug element to their market. Pool aren't terrible but they are where are in the league on merit. They are prob about the 7th best team in the Prem.
I just feel as though they are constantly priced on their reputation. You alluded to this with your 'underperformed' statement. I don't actually think they have underperformed. On paper they look good but as has been proven over 30 games, they simply aren't on the pitch. They have won 5 of their 15 home games. The bookies must love Pool home gameweeks. They are not being priced according to their ability or performances or results. This isn't the 1980's anymore.

Anyway, I have another question for you guys regarding 'draw no bet'.
Frasers bet on West Brom vs Newcastle was a dnb.
West Broms home form going into the game was W4 D 2 L8 and Newcastles away form was W5 D 3 L6.
5 draws from 28 games combined played. That is a low %. Should we, as a rule, avoid dnbs and just back the side we like in situations like this? I'm asking this as the same situation is occurring in the Newcastle vs Pool game. 6 draws from 30 combined games played.

The DNB price is a derivative from the match price. (As are the FT, time of first goal etc etc prices).

While you might get an extra tick or two of value occasionally, you are betting on the same thing. (As you are when taking the betfair price v the asian price).

[bobby1]

That's the crux of the conundrum really. If you were to take the 2.98 now and it got shorter you would have a good bet, if you took it and it got longer it would be a bad bet because the price taken is bottom end. It is 7/4 with a couple of Asian books in a similarly defensive market too.

 the trick is to take your bet and maximise the price you get, its all down to opinion on the price but as a rule betting this early in big % markets will be tough to get the 'best' bet.

So if it is tough to typically get the "best" price this early, is there a typical a good time to take the best price? I appreciate there are some many variables in every situation.

I sometimes take the price the day before a game and often find this is value when compared to an hour before the game. Is this naive?

no, very much the opposite imo. If you start on Friday morning and mine the team news on all the games you like that weekend, combine that with watching which way the Asian market is moving on those matches you will be ahead of a lot of the fixed odds firms. Then go thru all the games you didn't have a view on and see if the team news/Asian price changes your mind.

When you have done that you will prob be able to take advantage of the fixed odds firms prices which generally move late.

I would generally sit on what I fancy until Friday,unless some major injury or other team news becomes known. Or something like one of the teams I want to be against at the weekend plays extra time in a cup game on a Weds night, then I will prob bet earlier.

Again the real proof of the pudding is if you are then beating the market come game day, but if you do the work early you have more chance to do so.

[The Camel]

I have a question for Mr "Asian Handicap Man" adn.

I haven't checked, but I'm sure if you would be facing a huge level stakes loss if you had backed Liverpool blind at closing price (which you have stated is the correct price).

Do you think the scousers have been overrated by the market this season, or do you think it's variance?

[RickBFA]

That's the crux of the conundrum really. If you were to take the 2.98 now and it got shorter you would have a good bet, if you took it and it got longer it would be a bad bet because the price taken is bottom end. It is 7/4 with a couple of Asian books in a similarly defensive market too.

 the trick is to take your bet and maximise the price you get, its all down to opinion on the price but as a rule betting this early in big % markets will be tough to get the 'best' bet.

So if it is tough to typically get the "best" price this early, is there a typical a good time to take the best price? I appreciate there are some many variables in every situation.

I sometimes take the price the day before a game and often find this is value when compared to an hour before the game. Is this naive?

no, very much the opposite imo. If you start on Friday morning and mine the team news on all the games you like that weekend, combine that with watching which way the Asian market is moving on those matches you will be ahead of a lot of the fixed odds firms. Then go thru all the games you didn't have a view on and see if the team news/Asian price changes your mind.

When you have done that you will prob be able to take advantage of the fixed odds firms prices which generally move late.

I would generally sit on what I fancy until Friday,unless some major injury or other team news becomes known. Or something like one of the teams I want to be against at the weekend plays extra time in a cup game on a Weds night, then I will prob bet earlier.

Again the real proof of the pudding is if you are then beating the market come game day, but if you do the work early you have more chance to do so.

Thanks for the reply.

[MANTIS01]

This thread just keeps getting better and better.  I will be amazed if Tikay doesn't double his money at least by the end of the year.  

This debate about need to win is an interesting one.  Understanding and interpreting motivation is, these days, one of the best ways to beat the bookmakers but some people, odds compilers in particular, are lazy and interpret the need to win for positive motivation.  It isn't.  It can be but it isn't an automatic because these days footballers (or sportsmen in general) motivations aren't neccesarily 100% aligned with with their teams and certainly not to the extent we would hope and expect.  Many young players that are tied into long term contracts have clauses built into their contracts that allow them to leave if the team is relegated so it can be in their interests to see their team doing badly assuming they are only interested in their own success.  The Leeds team that got relegated from the Premiership is a good example of those kind of players I think.  On the flipside some teams really, really get extra motivated in those situationa but assuming a mid table side won't be motivated can similarly be sloppy and the ability gap still remains.  Of course you hve to do a LOT of reading and research to even be able to guess at those motivations but I find fans message boards can be useful as well as the usual places.  I nearly put a bet up here yesterday based on what i tend to find is one of the best motivational angles ever which is death/serious illness.  I really thought Bolton would be up for the game yesterday after what happened to Muamba.  Occasionally it can serve to distract and is a bit sick but if you can guarantee that the death or serious illnessis one that will be felt throughout the team you get a situation where they really want a tribute performance and everyone is 100% focussed on it.

I backed Bolton yesterday because of the Muamba effect. But it wasn't just the motivation of the team wanting to win for Fabrice (although that was a pretty big variable). Other important factors which were introduced into this match because of the Muamba incident were the fact Bolton played less than half a game at Spurs and their mid-week game vs Villa was cancelled so the physicality of the players was at it's peak whereas Blackburn played in the week. The Reebok was going to be packed creating immense home support and it wasn't that tense nail-biting support either. Importantly the pressure of the relegation fight was suddenly neutalised and Bolton players were going to be happy to be out there running around and playing a game of football because things were put into perspective. Bolton had a lot of advantages and were able to over-perform in a pressure situation because of it. But this was different I think to over-performing under pressure generally because the pressure was neutralised by euphoria allowing the players to play with freedom.

Being able to over-perform when the chips are down takes special characteristics. This is why needing to win is irrelevant. You must have the proven characteristics to be able to win in bad moments in order to make an outsider bet value. If we look at boxing and think of Nigel Benn. Here is a guy who would fight at his best when he was getting bashed up and he proved it time and time again. Hence when Benn was a big dog like he was vs McClellan it was a good bet because he was proven to over-perform in bad moments (of which there were going to be plenty). So when we think about football teams it's not enough to say they need to win we must ask if the team have the proven characteristics to be able to win under high pressure when things are bad.

[bobby1]

NP Rick, you will find the fixed odds firms get more competitive come game day but if you keep an eye on the Asian market before you bet you will see when a price you like is getting shorter and then bet it elsewhere , if it starts to drift you can re evaluate it, if you still like it wait for it to drift and make a calll as to when you bet it.


Not all shorteners win, but if you are going to bet them getting on with the steam is best. If you are betting the drifter then make a call as to what price you will take.

You will get a big benefit by bookmarking all the clubs official sites and also all the teams local newspaper. The amount of time I have spent pressing refresh on say the Northen-scot newspaper link looking for teams news for Elgin on a a Friday could be seen as excessive, and it is when you do it for all the games but you will find some gems along the way.

[TheDazzler]

I have a question for Mr "Asian Handicap Man" adn.

I haven't checked, but I'm sure if you would be facing a huge level stakes loss if you had backed Liverpool blind at closing price (which you have stated is the correct price).

Do you think the scousers have been overrated by the market this season, or do you think it's variance?

My two cents would be I'd guess it's a combination of the 2.
With hindsight it's easy to say something was over/underrated. I mean we'd all like to have been on V Persie top goalscorer @25/1 or whatever he was. But who was the pre season fav? Javier Hernandez.
Pool probably didn't get a lot of results they deserved earlier in the season (mainly due to their inability to score) and now after running so -EV for so long, they have started playing badly too. The market has probably somewhat adjusted in that Pool to win @ Newcastle would have been shorter earlier in the season than it is now for instance, even though I personally still think they are too short.
/ uninformed hijack.

I sent you a pm Camel regarding the Cheltenham thing.

[MereNovice]

Vince,

You stuck up a cricket bet @9am today, and I clean forgot about it, sorry.

I just went to put it on, and the price had drifted to 3.45 (you quoted 2.7 I think).

I now gather that it has already begun, and AustralIa are 201-3......

Another lucky swerve.

Unless you say otherwise, I will not get on now.

Sorry I missed it. Sort of.

Good judgement. The West Indies lost by 30 runs and were never in it.

New Zealand are 145/3 at lunch so look as though they should get a draw but South Africa are bowling well.
If you're looking for a silver lining in "the land of the long white cloud" Philander has taken two of the three wickets to fall.

[tikay]

More of a suckout than "good judgement" Vince, I plum forgot it, as I was offline most of the day.

Philander is good news, and if that one holds, we are in profit overall (on the match), but unless you know otherwise (incoming bad weather) with a day and a half to go, we still have a chance of a SA victory, no?

[MereNovice]

More of a suckout than "good judgement" Vince, I plum forgot it, as I was offline most of the day.

Philander is good news, and if that one holds, we are in profit overall (on the match), but unless you know otherwise (incoming bad weather) with a day and a half to go, we still have a chance of a SA victory, no?

New Zealand need to follow on for us to have a chance. Therefore they need to lose their last 7 wickets for less than 130 runs.
On the plus side, the ball shot through low for Philander's wicket just before lunch so fingers crossed.

[tikay]

More of a suckout than "good judgement" Vince, I plum forgot it, as I was offline most of the day.

Philander is good news, and if that one holds, we are in profit overall (on the match), but unless you know otherwise (incoming bad weather) with a day and a half to go, we still have a chance of a SA victory, no?

New Zealand need to follow on for us to have a chance. Therefore they need to lose their last 7 wickets for less than 130 runs.
On the plus side, the ball shot through low for Philander's wicket just before lunch so fingers crossed.

What happens if Philander and A N Other both get the same amount of wickets for SA?

[MereNovice]

More of a suckout than "good judgement" Vince, I plum forgot it, as I was offline most of the day.

Philander is good news, and if that one holds, we are in profit overall (on the match), but unless you know otherwise (incoming bad weather) with a day and a half to go, we still have a chance of a SA victory, no?

New Zealand need to follow on for us to have a chance. Therefore they need to lose their last 7 wickets for less than 130 runs.
On the plus side, the ball shot through low for Philander's wicket just before lunch so fingers crossed.

What happens if Philander and A N Other both get the same amount of wickets for SA?

The bowler who concedes the least runs is deemed the winner (for my bet, anyway).

[MereNovice]

New Zealand have avoided the follow-on by 1 run hitting two edged fours in their last over.
Philander took 6 for 81 so we have one winner at least.
It remains to be seen if South Africa are interested in trying to force a win.

[JaffaCake]

this boy Phil is a bit special Teeks, as a Test cricket fan you shoud make a point of watching him. He took his 50th wicket today, in his seventh Test, joint second-fastest in Test history, and the guy above him and equal with him were both around in the 19th century, maybe u can fill us in on them. He's got the second innings to come too. His sixth five-wicket innings already too...and it's not like he's the only one taking wickets in this team, the number one bowler in the world is coming in from the other end