Tips for Tikay

[bobby1]

Incoming text from Senior juju Camel (unedited)......


"Wiiiiii"

perfect night, lets get a few good results in 2morrow too.

[bobby1]

Both the cricket bets have come in with 4 overs to spare.
Sorry you didn't get on.

good going that mate

[MereNovice]

At half-time in the cricket, West Indies made 160 after looking like making 200.
They scored five sixes so both bets are borderline.

They scored all five sixes in the first 10 overs in contrast to the first game where they scored the first of their 5 sixes off the last ball of the 13th over.

The two main Men both out for a grand total of 1 and both Bets won pretty easy.
Can't work out why WI were priced up so low in the 6's Match Bet?

Nor me.

[MereNovice]

Both the cricket bets have come in with 4 overs to spare.
Sorry you didn't get on.

good going that mate

Thanks.
They don't call me the "blind squirrel" for nothing.

[Graham C]

Pleased brum won.  Blonde outing for barnets last game of the season so we can all cheer when they officially go down?

[bobby1]

I'm a sicko.

£100 train journey.

£125 hotel room.

£20 ticket.

I'm on my way to Underhill to see Barnet v Torquay. (Another ground off the list I suppose)

Come on you Gulls! (Might get to see Helen Chamberlain too)

Good grief Keith, you are a sicko!

Good manners prevents me from asking how much you must have on Barnet being relegated, but I hope you get the lot.

If you are a Hells Bellls fan, come see me at my Office any Thursday, Friday, or Saturday in the footie season, & I'll introduce you to Lady Chamberlain. What you see on Soccer AM is what you get with Helen, she is huge fun, though make it this season, as rumours abound that Soccer AM is about to change greatly, or even retire, as we know it. Last time I saw Helen she called me a grumpy old fart. Marv.

Incoming thin......

 

Click to see full-size image.

She's nicked your haircut Teeks.

[bobby1]

I've met her once Tony, She had a thing about going upstairs, or going in lifts or summat I seem to recall. Her dog also pissed in Vicky Coren's handbag.

[bobby1]

Hi Dancer 10/1 + 4:20 Wetherby.

£10 or £20 E/W

Price won't last, don't back it at less than 10's.

booom, excellent Ace.

[ACE2M]

great shouts on the cricket bets.

[TheDazzler]

We have a Mondy footie bet lined up for Sunday, over 2.5 goals needed in Newc v Liverpool.

I've been away for a bit but came on to post my thoughts on this match... have flicked through the last 5 pages or so but can't find where this was recommended, so I'll post anyway and you can do what you will with the advice!

I'd actually like some 'neutral' feedback on this, as in the past I have stayed away from betting for or against Liverpool, as I support them and find my heart often rules my head when thinking about them, however I've thought quite a lot about this match.

Firstly I tried to imagine what the Match Odds would be considering recent form; Liverpool have been shocking recently, disjointed and when goals have come they have tended to be flashes of individualism rather than team goals- Newcastle on the other hand looked mighty impressive against West Brom, have virtually their full team back and the game is being played at St James'. With that in mind I thought that the Match Odds would be Newcastle: 2.4-2.6, Liverpool:3.3ish, Draw: 3-3.2. I was shocked to see that the odds are actually Newc 3.15, Liv 2.44, Draw, 3.55. I believe there is value on all three prices; backing Newcastle, laying Liverpool, backing Draw. Personally I've laid Liverpool at 2.46, but I think the draw at 3.55 is a good bet.

As far as how I expect the game itself to play out, I actually think it'll be tight (sorry to go against the previous tip). Last week Newcastle's goals all came on the counter-attack, with Ben Arfa, Ba and Cisse working dynamically together, however Liverpool this season have set themselves up so that they are not very vulnerable to the counter-attack; even if a Liverpool attack starts quickly the ball tends to be played backwards so that the team keeps the solid shape, so if the ball is lost there are generally not big gaps they can be exploited with. I think the game will be cagey and that neither side will find it easy to score, but for me if anyone will win the game it'll be Newcastle.

A counter-argument to this is that Liverpool do tend to play better against the 'big' teams, and I think they'll be treating Newcastle as such on Sunday, especially after their own recent slump; it's also possible that Suarez or Gerrard will come up with something special, but I think Newcastle are good enough to keep them at bay.

The last time the two played each other was 30/12/11 at Anfield, Liverpool won 3-1, with two good goals from Bellamy and Gerrard (who had just returned from injury) very influencial, scoring the 3rd goal. We should note that Newcastle were on a bad run of form at the time, having won one of the previous 8 games. This time it's Liverpool who are on the bad run (lost five of their last six Premier League matches, including their last three on the road), and Newcastle really impressed me last week, when many expected West Brom to do well.

Sometimes when I write this much about a match it's a case of 'who are you trying to convince?', but on this occasion I truly believe that the match odds are wrong. I'd be very happy to hear any other points of view that agree or disagree with me.

Myself and Fraser mentioned this match back on page 132. We both felt the price was wrong then. Since then Newcastle have drifted.
The team news is overall a plus for Pool.
Coloccini has been confirmed out so that may account for Newcastles market drift as he is indeed a big loss. Ryan Taylor is back after a few games out and he is a welcome addition to a stretched backline. He will presumably take the left back spot with Perch moving into the centre. Tiote is also back and will surely slot into centre mid. Both of those returning are decent additions but Coloccinis loss probably overshadows the pluses. The 2 games he's missed this season have been a 0-3 at home to Chelsea (off injured after 26 mins at 0-0) and a 2-4 away defeat to Norwich. It does however help the 'over 2.5 goals' bet.
Pool may have Glen Johnson, Martin Kelly and Dan Agger back. If either Johnson or Kelly are back they could come in for the inexperienced Flanagan and Agger would replace Carragher who seems to be on a steep decline.
Pool have won more away matches (6) than at Anfield (5) possibly due to the pressure of home fans expectations and I would be more inclined to lay them at home where their price is obviously shorter. I think they are a cracking lay at home to Villa on 7th April.

A stat maybe worth noting is that Pool have won 6 of the last 7 meetings. The other game being Newcastles 3-1 in this fixture last season. I think that stat can be discounted slightly by the fact that the Newcastle sides that were losing those games were struggling sides and not the current one vying for Europe.
Having said all that, I still think Newcastle are too big and have backed accordingly. Maybe wait until Sunday for updated team news before having a bet but if it looks like Flanagan + Carragher are playing, I'll be having a bet on over 4.5 goals (6/1 Ladbrokes).

[tikay]

hi tikay i think i may hopefully have one for you, im big into speedway (probably a sport your not into ) but i think ive found a nice bet for you , its in the speedway gp series which starts tonight , round 1 is from auckland new zeland  and im picking chris holder to grab a podium finish priced at 3/1 , so in a nutshell in the top 3 1st 2nd or 3rd no matter where the bet to win, the price is available with william hills and is available till 4am sat morning when the meeting gets under way live on sky sports 1, im having a nifty 50 on it myself and im backing the rider chris holder as hes been in tremendous early season form having won his own australian title with flawless ease and when back a week or so ago in europe he won a big individual meeting of which a lot of the gp boys where competing,  im taking him like i say to finish top 3 and hope you take the hint , cheers big lew !!!!

Hi Lew,

Bad news (for me), I left this too late, the price has gone, and I can't get on at anything even near 3/1, and I need to get to bed now, so I am gonna have to miss this one I'm afraid.

Hope he gets top three for you, and anyone else who got on.

[tikay]

March Account.

Investments;

Dubai, PL Darts, Anderson 180's, £50 (unsettled)

Chompy, Cloudy Lane, Chelters, £25 (lost)

Bobby, Leishman, Golf (£20, lost)

Camel, Barnet relegation, (£50, unsettled)

Camel, Al Ferof, Chelters, (£50, lost)

Dubai, Darts Bet # 1, £50 (WON, returned £91.67)

Dubai, Darts Bet # 2, £66 (LOST)

Dubai, Darts Bet # 3, £110 (LOST)

Dubai, Darts bet # 4, £48,  (WON, returned £88)

Snowball, Cricket, £50 (lost)

Mere, RL Scorer, £50 (WON, returned £110)

Whisper, 'Boro, £25, (WON returned £48.50)

maldini, WBA, £25 (WON, returned £82.67)

Ralph, Rory Lay, £120 (lost)

Dubai, CL Goals, £75 (WON, returned £135)

Dubai, CL Result, £60 (WON, returned £129)

Mere, Cricket, SA v NZ, £50 (lost)

Chumpy, Blackpool football, £100 (lost)

Dubai, Darts, £120 (Lost)

Simon G, Chelt Top Trainer, £50 (WON, returned £200)

Dean, San Antonio, £100 (lost)

ChipRich, Brighton, £100 (WON)

Tighty, Arsenal Novelty Bet, £30 (lost)

redarmi, BM CL lay (£22, lost)

ACE2M, PP FB enhanced, (£20, lost)

MahagonyVic, Finians Rainbow (£50 EW, WON, returned £412.50)

Pokercade, The New One, (£25EW, lost)

Chompy, Bilbao v Man U (£50, WON, returned £143.75)

Tighty, Napoli, (£50 x 2, lost)

Redarmi, OW & TS (£40x2, lost)

Bobby, Gold Cup “WO” top 2 (£50, lost)

Fraser B, Wigan, DNB (£100, returned £100)

Horseplayer, $$ Mick (£50, lost)

Horseplayer, Pugnacity, (£20, lost)

Camel, Barnet, (£50 @11/2, unsettled)

Dazzler, Man C, (£50, WON, returned £95.45)

ChipRich, Leeds, (£50, lost)

Fraser, QPR v ‘Pool, (£100, lost)

Tighty,  Blackpool, (£80, lost)

Horseplayer horse, (£40, lost)

Jaffa, Hornets, (£50, lost)

Mere, Philander best bowler (£50 @ 5/2, WON)

Mere, SA to win Test, (£50 @ evens, lost)

Camel, Sunderland (£100 @ WON, returned £200)

Dubai, Darts Bet # 1 (£60 @ 5/6, WON, returned £110)

Dubai, Darts Bet # 2 (£45 @ 4/9 & 5/6, WON, returned £119.11)

Dubai, Darts Bet # 3 (£60 @ 6/5, WON, returned £110)

Silo, Wolfsburg, (£50 @ 11/10, WON, returned £102.50)

Dazzler, Wigan, (£25 @ 9/1, WON, returned £250)

Bobby, Rochdale, (£100, lost)

Tighty, SL v MCC, (£50 @ 13/8, WON, returned £131.38)

Mondy, Newc v L'Pool over 2.5 goals (£50 @ 2.06, unsettled)

Jaffa, 2 NBA Scoring bets, (2 x £25, both lost)

Mere, 6's, WI v Aus, (£50 @ 4/5, WON) * - USED FREE BET

Fraser, Sheff U v C'Field (£50 @ 8/15, WON, returned £76.64)

Claypole, Both Teams to score, (£50, lost)

Ralph, Miss Hedwall Golf, (£25 EW unsettled)

ACE2M, Hi Dancer, (£10 EW @ 10/1, WON, returned £145)

RickBFA, Fleetwood (£50 @ 5/6, SkyBet, unsettled)

Total invested = £3,396.00
_____________________________

Returns

PL Darts # 1, (Dubai) £91.67

PL Darts # 4, (Dubai) £88

RL, Scorer, (Mere), £110

M'Boro (Whisper) £48.50

WBA (maldini), £82.67

Arsenal Goals (Dubai) £135

Arsenal Result (Dubai) £129

Brighton (ChipRich), £206

Cheltenham (Mahagony Vic) £412.50

Simon G (Top Trainer) £200

Chompy, (Bilbao) £143.75

Fraser B (Wigan) £100

Man C, Dazzler, £95.45

Dubai, Darts, £110

Dubai, Darts, £119.11

Dubai, Darts, £110

Silo, Wolfsburg, £102.50

Dazzler, Wigan, £250

Camel, Sunderland, £200

Mere, 6's, Wi - Aus, £90

Mere, Phil Ander, £175

Fraser, Sheff U, £76.64

Tighty, SL, £131.38

ACE2M, Horse, £145 

Total Returns = £3,353.00.

__________________________

March Profit/Loss = £3,396 minus £3,353 = £43 loss. (Includes £300 cost of unsettled bets)

6 Unsettled bets , Anderson, Barnet (x 2) , NU v L'pool, Hedwall, Fleetwood (6 bets), = £300     

[The Camel]

Result was good last night, but the performance was worryingly promising by Barnet.

Barnet were much the better the team in the first half. They missed a penalty and the Torquy keeper was lucky not to see red in the incident.

Torquay were a little better in the 2nd half but scored from really their only chance in the match and were lucky to get that.. the Barnet right back collapased on turning (and was stretchered off) and left the winger clear on goal.

Barnet huffed and puffed after the goal but never really looked like equalising.

Still, onwards on upwards. Really fancy Plymouth today and hopefully some positive results for Hereford, Macclesfield and Dagenham.

And on to Tuesday.

In Paolo we trust.

[tikay]

Summary for Friday 30th.

Winners.

One bet, one win!

The clear highlight was ACE2M, who gave us a 10/1 shot, bravo Tom! I gather quite a few got on, too, all the better.

Unsettled.

Of the running bets, we got the right result from Barnet, though our Barnet Corry tells us we were a shade fortunate. We need other results to go for us today, now, as noted in Camel's TR.

Caroline Hedwall (LPGA) made the cut, but is 10 shots off the lead. Still, you never know. A proper 40/1 shot.

We are on Fleetwood today - a huge match - to beat Bath, on a one goal handicap.
 
The much discussed Newc v Liverpool game is not until Sunday.

Missed!

I missed Mere's two excellent Cricket bets (both won) as I was asleep.

Silo put a football tip up, Birmingham, I thought it was for today (Saturday) & never got on. It was for last night, & won......Sorry Graham, but hopefully you & others had a nice touch.

I also missed the price on a speedway bet from bigtadger, & I can't bet if I miss the price. Turned out to be a lucky swerve for me, if not for Lew, ul mate.

Today sees the end of the March Account, hopefully we won't do too much damage.

I'll be offline for a goodly while today, but keep the tips coming, half of blonde follow them now. 

[MereNovice]

Rugby Union
Super 15
Brumbies v Sharks
Brumbies to win @ 5/4 on Sportingbet (and others)

Brumbies are at home and have won 3 of 4 games this season. Sharks have lost 3 of 5.
Both teams are near full strength and I can't see why Sharks are favourites apart from reputation.
Sharks have Michalak instead of Lambie at fly-half. This is a definite negative for them.

Kick-off at 9:40am.