Tips for Tikay

[The Camel]

Going to reask my question, seeing as Liverpool have been backed off the boards on the Asian line again this week..

I have a question for Mr "Asian Handicap Man" adn.

I haven't checked, but I'm sure if you would be facing a huge level stakes loss if you had backed Liverpool blind at closing price (which you have stated is the correct price).

Do you think the scousers have been overrated by the market this season, or do you think it's variance?

[smashedagain]

Result was good last night, but the performance was worryingly promising by Barnet.

Barnet were much the better the team in the first half. They missed a penalty and the Torquy keeper was lucky not to see red in the incident.

Torquay were a little better in the 2nd half but scored from really their only chance in the match and were lucky to get that.. the Barnet right back collapased on turning (and was stretchered off) and left the winger clear on goal.

Barnet huffed and puffed after the goal but never really looked like equalising.

Still, onwards on upwards. Really fancy Plymouth today and hopefully some positive results for Hereford, Macclesfield and Dagenham.

And on to Tuesday.

In Paolo we trust.

Love some of his antics as much as the goals. Pure passion

[tikay]

Unsure if I should post this, a friend at work gave me it and I hate reading blind tips but his confidence is infectious. So fk it, your a degen now anyway. There is some story about it that I can't be arsed sharing. Get on get paid...

Mayson 2:40 Doncaster @ 7/1

Very thin grounds Chris, "mate @ work", but we need you on the scorecard, so you take the flak when I get moaned at - right? Anyway, I got a better price, so I might have "reasonable grounds" to bet......

ON, £10.00 EW, Paddy Power.

 DONCASTER 14:40 LISTED STAKES (3Y0+) 6f
31-03-2012 14:40
Win or E/W
Each Way Odds: 1/4 places 1,2,3
Mayson @ 15/2 (GP)
 
Your Bets When placing an E/W bet, your total stake will be double the amount you enter in the stake box.
Single: Mayson @ 15/2
2 lines at £10.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £20.00
Potential returns: £113.75
No: O/23146337/0000006
 

[tikay]

Rugby Union
Super 15
Brumbies v Sharks
Brumbies to win @ 5/4 on Sportingbet (and others)

Brumbies are at home and have won 3 of 4 games this season. Sharks have lost 3 of 5.
Both teams are near full strength and I can't see why Sharks are favourites apart from reputation.
Sharks have Michalak instead of Lambie at fly-half. This is a definite negative for them.

Kick-off at 9:40am.

ON! £50 with Paddy Power, @ 5/4

Thanks Vince.

Bet Stake Brumbies v Sharks - Brumbies @ 5/4  -£50.00"

[Simon Galloway]

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=57273.0

[Sighmuns]

Myself and Fraser mentioned this match back on page 132. We both felt the price was wrong then. Since then Newcastle have drifted.
The team news is overall a plus for Pool.
Coloccini has been confirmed out so that may account for Newcastles market drift as he is indeed a big loss. Ryan Taylor is back after a few games out and he is a welcome addition to a stretched backline. He will presumably take the left back spot with Perch moving into the centre. Tiote is also back and will surely slot into centre mid. Both of those returning are decent additions but Coloccinis loss probably overshadows the pluses. The 2 games he's missed this season have been a 0-3 at home to Chelsea (off injured after 26 mins at 0-0) and a 2-4 away defeat to Norwich. It does however help the 'over 2.5 goals' bet.
Pool may have Glen Johnson, Martin Kelly and Dan Agger back. If either Johnson or Kelly are back they could come in for the inexperienced Flanagan and Agger would replace Carragher who seems to be on a steep decline.
Pool have won more away matches (6) than at Anfield (5) possibly due to the pressure of home fans expectations and I would be more inclined to lay them at home where their price is obviously shorter. I think they are a cracking lay at home to Villa on 7th April.

A stat maybe worth noting is that Pool have won 6 of the last 7 meetings. The other game being Newcastles 3-1 in this fixture last season. I think that stat can be discounted slightly by the fact that the Newcastle sides that were losing those games were struggling sides and not the current one vying for Europe.
Having said all that, I still think Newcastle are too big and have backed accordingly. Maybe wait until Sunday for updated team news before having a bet but if it looks like Flanagan + Carragher are playing, I'll be having a bet on over 4.5 goals (6/1 Ladbrokes).

Thanks for the views... made me think a bit. Realised you're right about Coloccini only missing 2 games... I was under the impression that they had survived a spell without him; I think I'll be looking to lay out of my unders bets depending on the teams.

Fairly happy with my lay of Liverpool still though. There are players in the team who can perform well individually, but Newcastle are much more of a team than Liverpool this season; imo Liverpool should not be favourites to go there and get a win.

The talk that I've read about the match is about Andy Carroll... no basis to think that he'll do anything in this match for me.

As far as your overs bet goes Tikay, I agree with Dazzler that if the teams are right it looks like a good bet; if they are then the flip-flop half-time full-time results (i.e. Liv /Newc FT, and the opposite) could be worth a couple of quid at the high odds.

[Eso Kral]

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=57273.0

Lol Simon
This is a tipping thread not a gambling one 
Brent fancies Mayson also so if I dont win I hope this one does!!

GL

[MereNovice]

Brumbies lead 16-15 at half-time following a very see-saw half.
An "unfortunate" interception try cost them 7 points and it looks like a very tense second half.

[Sighmuns]

Ugh, so unlucky for the Brumbies, tough one guys

[MereNovice]

Ugh, so unlucky for the Brumbies, tough one guys

Yup, not looking good.
Three bad tries conceded.
Looks like they've just dropped the ball over the line, too.

[MereNovice]

Sharks win 29-26.
Almost looked as though the impossible was possible at the end.

Apologies to anyone (apart from tikay) who took the bet.

[ACE2M]

Going to reask my question, seeing as Liverpool have been backed off the boards on the Asian line again this week..

I have a question for Mr "Asian Handicap Man" adn.

I haven't checked, but I'm sure if you would be facing a huge level stakes loss if you had backed Liverpool blind at closing price (which you have stated is the correct price).

Do you think the scousers have been overrated by the market this season, or do you think it's variance?

A combo of both perhaps, though it's difficult to say with hindsight. If Liverpool had won loads of games there would be no real debate over whether the markets were wrong or not. I think saying outright 'the market is consistently wrong here' is very results-orientated. For it to be wrong you'd have to assume the smart big hitters have a blind spot on Liverpool which they haven't thought about fixing!

that blind spot is called Stewart Downing.

[Bad Beat]

 I've read all 160 pages of this thread without posting once. I feel like I could have written thousands of words every week and I'm just a bit too busy at the moment.

 I would say one thing though...


 That horse bet at Doncaster is a terrible each-way bet win or lose. I'm pretty sure there are many smart people that can explain why this is not a good race to be betting each-way and so I'll leave it to them.

 It does frustrate me when I see punters backing each-way just on the basis that the price is bigger than 5/1 and not considering the number of runners or the shape of the betting. I haven't been to the Betfair market but I would make it a heavy odds-on favourite that the place only is trading at bigger than you got on the place part of this fixed odds bet.

 I have so much I could say about the football betting here, but there are only so many hours in the day. I do spend a bit of time with Alan Alger of BlueSq at the moment and every week he tells me his best bet in the BlueSq premier. He does pretty well with them This week he suggested Fleetwood on the handicap and Fleetwood 4-0 5-0 6-0.

[scotty2hatty]

I've read all 160 pages of this thread without posting once. I feel like I could have written thousands of words every week and I'm just a bit too busy at the moment.

 I would say one thing though...


 That horse bet at Doncaster is a terrible each-way bet win or lose. I'm pretty sure there are many smart people that can explain why this is not a good race to be betting each-way and so I'll leave it to them.

 It does frustrate me when I see punters backing each-way just on the basis that the price is bigger than 5/1 and not considering the number of runners or the shape of the betting. I haven't been to the Betfair market but I would make it a heavy odds-on favourite that the place only is trading at bigger than you got on the place part of this fixed odds bet.

 I have so much I could say about the football betting here, but there are only so many hours in the day. I do spend a bit of
time with Alan Alger of BlueSq at the moment and every week he tells me his best bet in the BlueSq premier. He does pretty well with them This week he suggested Fleetwood on the handicap and Fleetwood 4-0 5-0 6-0.

Quite a lot of words without really saying much, maybe you can explain why it's a bad each way bet? TIA.

[Bazzaboy]

One in tonights boxing.

Brian Rose to win by decision/technical decision @ 6/4 with Lads, PP, Sky

He is fighting Max Maxwell who stopped him in their first fight two years ago although there were excuses for Rose on that occasion as his head wasn't right due to his previous opponent collapsing and ending up in a coma although he has since made a full recovery.  Rose has since kicked on from them and put his demons behind him by winning 4 in a row and comfortably outpointing Prince Arron to win the British title (despite what one jusdge thought).  Rose is not a big puncher though and of his 18 wins only 5 have come by KO/TKO.  Maxwell on the other hand isn't much more than a journey man with a 15-10-3 record and only 3 of his wins coming by KO/TKO.  Of his 10 defeats he has only been stopped twice and both of those have been in the first round when he has been caught cold, he has proven to be pretty durable otherwise.  Given Rose was KO'd in their first fight I imagine he will be pretty circumspect in the opening round.  I expect Rose to box his way to a wide UD.