Tips for Tikay

[FUN4FRASER]

Newcastle 3.45
Draw 3.65
Liverpool 2.28

 

I'm On!

I can't resist backing newcastle when there is a HINT of value. If the price moves out i'll be getting more on as well

TOON TOON!

No doubt some dullards from another betting forum will come along and call me a mug but i'd rather be a mug-punter than a soul-less, grumpy lil nit

Love this thread btw, If I ever get a tip worth posting i'll jump in and contribute, but alas I am a mug lol

Hi Dave

Its highly likely we will be told you cant bet against a price move   

Good luck Us & everybody else on

[millidonk]

Even as a Liverpool fan I think the 11\8 DNB is a great value bet.
I stopped punting on us many moons ago, due to how unpredictable we are and the fact it hurts so much more when its your team that let you down. I Feel myself wanting to say GL to all but not sure if I fully mean it. GL anyway..

On a side not if anyone has any shortprice fancies which might not represent value per say for here don't be afraid to share them over here http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=57248.msg1539658#new

#noshame

[The Camel]

I'm reading the last few pages of this thread in utter disbelief.

What sort of pathetic life must you lead to have the urge to register on a forum, about whose subject you have no interest, in order to troll someone about a tip which has about 0.1% chance of winning.

And I thought I was a saddo.

[doubleup]

There was some talk earlier in the thread from an esteemed correspondent about ew betting.  The 3.55 at doncaster is a very naughty ew race indeed. 8 runners, so if they stand 3 places paid.  The race also has 3 handicappers running in it, that should have vey little chance on the official ratings, so only 5 of the eight have "legitimate" place chances.

As a comparative exercise here are the present BF place prices and the bookies place price (1/5 odds) for the five classier horses:

                 bf           bookie
navajo chief 3.4            5

penitent     1.96          2.8

questioning  1.42         1.6

side glance  1.13         1.2

st moritz     1.79         2.4  


The Bf price will prob ease a bit later but I think this kind of race illustrates when ew betting is profitable.

[FUN4FRASER]

I'm reading the last few pages of this thread in utter disbelief.

What sort of pathetic life must you lead to have the urge to register on a forum, about whose subject you have no interest, in order to troll someone about a tip which has about 0.1% chance of winning.

And I thought I was a saddo.

          ?

[MANTIS01]

I am glad the trolls arrived because they taught me a 2500/1 bet is a long shot. Those are the sort of skills that pay the bills. Bit tight of Sky to slash the odds in half on something that can't happen thou

Think might back this anyway because Cinderella Man is one of my favourite films and Stu Ungar. Love that comeback shit. Wonder what price you could've got on Denmark in '92 after they failed to qualify for the Euros?

Also why is Channing scared to post?

[mondatoo]

Are these ppl saying that my 1000/1 bet might not win ? GTFO

[Bad Beat]

Hello Mantis

 I'm not sure I'm exactly "scared" to post, just a little unsure.

 Recently I've had a few bad experiences with the internet. I sent out my "Cheltenham Newsletter" to about 50 people who usually make Cheltenham week even busier for me by calling for tips right when I'm trying to study. Tikay posted it here and I was totally vilified in a nasty way, real character assasination. I'm not at all upset that Tikay poated it, I would have 99% said yes if he'd have asked me, I just was sad that virtually the only comments the thread got, were pretty demoralising and then just after 80% of races were done somebody found something I'd said that didn't happen (I was highlighting lots of 25/1+ bets).

 I did an interview on with The Tower the other day and said the guy next to me was pretty tilting as he always folded in an exagerated/dramatic/flamboyant way. The guy called me a "confirmed douchebag" on Facebook. The weird thing was though he made the comment after setting his account so I couldn't read it (confirmed tosser).

 I am also a litle worried that I'll spend too much time on this thread. I have read every page of it and really enjoyed a lot of it. Some of the posters are extremely knowledgable and I'm sure I've learned. I can see how many emails I have to deal with right now though, and if I post every day, they will never get done.

 The other thing about posting is that the game gets harder every day. There are definitely things I do that involve walking round dozens of betting shops and if marked accounts start doing them on the internet - there goes another little edge.

[FUN4FRASER]

Neil

There are a lot of people who have nothing else better to do than be rude or troll

I stopped posting too because of hassle but Tikay suggested I carry on and ignore them

I suggest the same to you sir because you talk a lot of sense & you are definitely a good read  

Cheers

Fraser

[MANTIS01]

Hello Mantis

 I'm not sure I'm exactly "scared" to post, just a little unsure.

 Recently I've had a few bad experiences with the internet. I sent out my "Cheltenham Newsletter" to about 50 people who usually make Cheltenham week even busier for me by calling for tips right when I'm trying to study. Tikay posted it here and I was totally vilified in a nasty way, real character assasination. I'm not at all upset that Tikay poated it, I would have 99% said yes if he'd have asked me, I just was sad that virtually the only comments the thread got, were pretty demoralising and then just after 80% of races were done somebody found something I'd said that didn't happen (I was highlighting lots of 25/1+ bets).

 I did an interview on with The Tower the other day and said the guy next to me was pretty tilting as he always folded in an exagerated/dramatic/flamboyant way. The guy called me a "confirmed douchebag" on Facebook. The weird thing was though he made the comment after setting his account so I couldn't read it (confirmed tosser).

 I am also a litle worried that I'll spend too much time on this thread. I have read every page of it and really enjoyed a lot of it. Some of the posters are extremely knowledgable and I'm sure I've learned. I can see how many emails I have to deal with right now though, and if I post every day, they will never get done.

 The other thing about posting is that the game gets harder every day. There are definitely things I do that involve walking round dozens of betting shops and if marked accounts start doing them on the internet - there goes another little edge.

That's just standard interwebs. Learning from other posts and not posting yourself so others can learn is bad karma imo. Say what you want to say already.

[MereNovice]

Neil

There are a lot of people wh ohave nothing else better to do than be rude or troll

I stopped posting too because of hassle but Tikay suggested I carry on and ignore them

I suggest the same to you sir because you talk a lot of sense & you are definitely a good read   

Cheers

Fraser

I also enjoy Neil's posts and would definitely like to read any insights that he would share with us.

[Bad Beat]

 On the other hand it is possible to post, to be constructive and to add something - which I kind of feel some duty to do, seeing as I've enjoyed reading the thread and I've benefitted from the shared knowledge.

 I thought I'd try that the other day and I made the comment about the terrible ew bet (which obv then finished 3rd). Double-Up is well on the way to explaining what a good ew bet looks like and I'm sure there are lots of ways to judge what might be a good ew bet.

 Some rules you might try...

 Look at the number of runners.

 In non-handicaps ew races are 1/5th 1,2,3. You probably won't find good ew bets in 15-runner 1/5th 1,2,3 races and you often will in 8 and 9 runner ones. If there are 5-7 runners you'll be on 1/4 1,2. In 7 runner races that is generally going to produce a terrible ew bet.

 Handicaps of 12 runners are 1/4 1,2,3 and these are often Ok as ew bets. In 15-runner handicaps (1/4 1,2,3) these are terrible. 16+ runners in a handicap make ew bets 1/4 1,2,3,4. That means that 16-20 runners will often make for a great ew bet but 32+ will not.

 As in all these things Betfair have made it so much easier for people to see where the bookmakers are wrong and for people who know this stuff to benefit. You just have to look at the place market. The horse yesterday was trading at around 3.0 for a place. Your place bet was at 6/4 and you beat the sp by a fair bit.

 As is often the case the Betfair market is usually a better judge of the "true price".

[The Camel]

Hello Mantis

 I'm not sure I'm exactly "scared" to post, just a little unsure.

 Recently I've had a few bad experiences with the internet. I sent out my "Cheltenham Newsletter" to about 50 people who usually make Cheltenham week even busier for me by calling for tips right when I'm trying to study. Tikay posted it here and I was totally vilified in a nasty way, real character assasination. I'm not at all upset that Tikay poated it, I would have 99% said yes if he'd have asked me, I just was sad that virtually the only comments the thread got, were pretty demoralising and then just after 80% of races were done somebody found something I'd said that didn't happen (I was highlighting lots of 25/1+ bets).

 I did an interview on with The Tower the other day and said the guy next to me was pretty tilting as he always folded in an exagerated/dramatic/flamboyant way. The guy called me a "confirmed douchebag" on Facebook. The weird thing was though he made the comment after setting his account so I couldn't read it (confirmed tosser).

 I am also a litle worried that I'll spend too much time on this thread. I have read every page of it and really enjoyed a lot of it. Some of the posters are extremely knowledgable and I'm sure I've learned. I can see how many emails I have to deal with right now though, and if I post every day, they will never get done.

 The other thing about posting is that the game gets harder every day. There are definitely things I do that involve walking round dozens of betting shops and if marked accounts start doing them on the internet - there goes another little edge.

While I can understand why you were upset with what Trigg posted, I'm 100% sure he it wasn't meant as "totally vilified in a nasty way, real character assasination.".

Problem with the internet forums (and emails in general) is that it is virtually impossible for a reader to distinguish between a bit of friendly piss taking (which I think Trigg's posts were meant as) and nasty bitchy trolling like "confirmed douchbag" seems to be.

In conclusion, Trigg is a good bloke. But he's from Yorkshire. You need to remember both of these facts when reading anything he posts.

[Bad Beat]

 It is a pet peeve when I see people ramble on about value and then give away money by making a bad ew bet just because the price was 33/1 and they would be sad to see it come 3rd.

 The other thing I posted about the other day was annoying.

 I wanted to simply point out that a guy I like, who has worked in the industry for years, and who goes to many, many BlueSq Premier games had highlighted the -1 handicap with Fleetwood as his best bet of the week.

 I actually do think that in the lower leagues it is possible to be an expert on some teams and have a chance of meeting the Asian Market. I actually do generally agree that the Asian Market is simply correct at the time of kick-off and therefore hard to beat, but I also feel that if it is going to have weakspots it will be in Fleetwood vs Bath and not in Man City vs Spurs.

 I actually am aware that some bookmaker PR reps are pretty stupid and lose in the long-term on punting. I also know that this is a guy I like who adnmdv hasn't met. I'm also pretty sure that adnmdv hasn't got access to the guys betting accounts or bank account. I would stress that Alan backed the handicap and mentioned that 4-0,5-0 and 6-0 could be value. I was merely stating that to support the bet that was put up here on the handicap.

 I didn't need a lecture on how fixed-odds correct scores are generally bad value because of overound (I have actually been aware of this for a while).

 I would say though that it is quite possible in games where the prices are at the extreme for things to be really wrong.

 I think it's possible that the 1/3 price should have been 1/5 but it's highly unlikely that Wolves should have been 7/2 yesterday.

[Bad Beat]

 Trigg wrote and apologised. All is cool now. His mate was a bit of a tosser.