Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Been reading this thread every day and loving it, and now it is time for me to put forward my first tip.

Mumbai Indians to win the IPL @ 9/2 (Bet365, Betfred, BlueSquare)
Starts tomorrow with a match between Mumbai and reigning champions Chennai

Mumbai were losing semi-finalists in this last season and then went on to win the 2011 Champions League T20

They have made a number of decent signings, including South African opening batsman Levi, Wicket keeper batsman Karthik and two of the highest IPL Wicket takers RP Singh and Ojha.
Add those to the already impressive squad including Tendulkar, Pollard, Harbihjan Singh and Malinga and in my opinion they should be favourites.
Tendulkar has stepped down as captain to concentrate on his game leaving the way for Harbihjan to captain the side as he did to the Champions League title.

Will leave the bet amount up to you Tikay if you decide to go for it.

Like that, & nobody has spoken against, thanks Matt. 

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/domestic/indian-premier-league/winner

ON

£25 @9/2. Blue Square.


Mumbai Indians @ 9/2 
Market
 Outright Winner
 
Event
 Indian Premier League
Indian Premier League 2012
2012-04-04 15:00:00
 
Bet Type
 
Bet Type
 Win Single
 
Unit Stake
 £25.00
 
Number of Units
 x1
 
Total Stake
 £25.00
 
Time and Date Placed
 2012-04-04 08:34:43
 
Receipt Number
 O/0891659/0000016
 

[tikay]

Surely Swindon are a bet tonight at 1.8?  Swindon with 6 clean sheets in thier last 8 games, the only downside is that they've lost thier last two away games.  Swindon are top of the league, Barnet 22nd.  Win for Swindon puts them 5 points clear with a game in hand and 8 points clear of third place.   Barnet as we know aint good.  

You were spot on, Graham, but "huumus" got in first!

Hope you had a nice touch.

[tikay]

Something to file under speculative but I couldn't back it and not put it on here given the price Tony. Obv it is unlikely to win but I think its the wrong price as this guy is in with all the has been's and can't win guys, when his career is barely starting.

Try a fiver ew on Patrick Cantlay to be leader after round 1 in the Masters at 300/1 with the Tote, Betfred or Bodog. Basically this guy is still at Uni but is currently the number 1 ranked amateur in the world. It is simply a matter of finishing his schooling before he turns pro.

What makes him interesting is he played 5 times on the main PGA tour last year and ran top 25 in 4 of them, that included a 21st in the US Open. The week after that he got an invite to play in the Travelers Championship on the PGA Tour where he shot a second round of 60, to lead after 36 holes, he then shot around level par for the weekend to fall away. He played one event this year as an invitee in the Nissan Open and missed the cut.

Obviously its a big ask to lead the Masters after round 1 but it is only last years Open championship where an amateur led after round one, when Tom Lewis did it. Lewis then turned pro soon after and won an event on the Euro tour str8 away, so it can happen if the amateur is good.

I think he is in with about the same chance as the guys at 150/1 in the market, so getting 75/1 he finishes in the top 5, I have bet it each way.

I've also thrown a pony at him at 1000 in the outright as it will give something to play with if he does start well.

That's an interesting punt, Phil!

The question is, it seems, is it the wrong price?

Nobody commented, & if nobody does, I'll do the degen thing & chuck £5 ew at it.

It raises, again, the "ew" debate. At the price quoted, it looks worth doing EW, to me, anyway.

We have until tomorrow to decide.

Not on yet. 

[tikay]

Friday is huge.

Cheltenham v Barnet. First time I've been interested in a result from the Cotswolds outside of March.

Hereford v Plymouth. At this point, we need a Hereford win imo. Although a Plymouth win will make them totally safe, the bottom two need to catch up a bit!

Dagenham v Burton. Dagenham's big chance to get out of the mire. They've won their last 2 and 3 out of 4. A win here and they are virtually safe.

Macclesfield v Shrewsbury. This is tough.. But Plymouth beat the Shrews. One time for the Silkmen.

(Played - Goal Difference - Points)

19 Dag & Red  40 -26 41

20 Bradford  40 -7 40

21 Plymouth  40 -16 40

22 Barnet  40 -26 39

23 Macclesfield  40 -17 36

24 Hereford  40 -23 35


Seems to be about Macclesfield &/or Hereford nicking a win. The GD is worth a point to us.

[Graham C]

Surely Swindon are a bet tonight at 1.8?  Swindon with 6 clean sheets in thier last 8 games, the only downside is that they've lost thier last two away games.  Swindon are top of the league, Barnet 22nd.  Win for Swindon puts them 5 points clear with a game in hand and 8 points clear of third place.   Barnet as we know aint good. 

You were spot on, Graham, but "huumus" got in first!

Hope you had a nice touch.

For me I did thanks, was quite pleased but I did get concerned by the fairly large drift on Swindon.

[doubleup]

It raises, again, the "ew" debate. At the price quoted, it looks worth doing EW, to me, anyway.

If the win price is an accurate reflection of the true odds, a place bet of 1/4 odds 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 will always be a good bet.

[tikay]

It raises, again, the "ew" debate. At the price quoted, it looks worth doing EW, to me, anyway.

If the win price is an accurate reflection of the true odds, a place bet of 1/4 odds 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 will always be a good bet.

Thanks.

Our Senior Golf Geek bobby, (ignoring, for the moment, Karabiner who gets the nod on age terms), thinks his true odds are the same as several 150/1 shots, but the guy is quoted @ 300/1 by several books.

So we'd be getting 75/1 place odds, which is half the "real" win odds. Or have I got that wrong?

[bobby1]

That is right Tony,300 for the win and 75/1 for him to run in the top 5 on the place part.

There might be a bit of draw bias given the weather forecast so we got to factor in that but it's deffo not set in stone.

Your Garrigus bet is in a nice spot, he was tipped up by one of the better pre game tipsters.He is now shorter in the market for top debutant than the price you took.

[Dubai]

At least I was right about this Sri Lankan attack, cost me money admittedly but they really are dross

[TightEnd]

At least I was right about this Sri Lankan attack, cost me money admittedly but they really are dross

Yes

Great to see us batting properly.

Still don't think it will be a draw!

[Sighmuns]

Arb on Rory in the Masters if anyone wants it... know it might not be in the Tipping-thread budget for you TK, but he's 9/1 with WillHill, now just over 7/1 on Betfair... was better an hour ago or so.

[horseplayer]

agreed the seamers would not worry me much in the club league i play in

[Chompy]

9/1 Rory is an obscenely big price

[Dubai]

£50 max on Rory so not really worth hassle

[Chompy]

Good for the two-bob punters...

I hereby recommend £50 win on Rory @ 9/1 Hills