Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

April Account  - 11am April 7th.

Investments

Fraser, Blackburn DNB, (lost, £40)

DoubleUp, Westwood, Masters, (£20, unsettled)

horseplayer, SL opening p'ship, (£30, WON, returned £56)

horseplayer, Masters Debut, Garrigus (£10 @ 16/1, BS, lost)

hummuspie, Swindon, Swindon, (WON, £50 @ 17/20, returned £92.50)

Dazzler, Bolton, (£25 @ 7/4, Bet365, unsettled)

Eso Kral, Walsall, (£25 @ Evens, BS, unsettled)

Matt50, Mumbai Indians, IPL, (£25 @ 9/2, BS, unsettled)

Silo, Chelsea, CL, (£25 @ 1.75, Betfair, WON, returned £43.50)

Bobby, Cantlay, (£3 EW, LOST) (converted to £3 EW from $5 EW)

Bobby, Cantlay, £5 @ 960, Betfair, unsettled)  

ACE2M, Rose, (£25 @ 7/2, BetVictor, unsettled)

Fraser, Hull, (£50 @ 13/10, BetVictor, unsettled)

Tighty, LAY SL-Eng Draw (£49 to win £25, Betfair, WON, returned £74)

Henrik, 72 hole MB Carbera etc, (£25, unsettled)

tikay, 18 hole MB, Carbera (lost)

TOTAL Invested (April) = £436

________________________________

Returns

horseplayer, SL openers, £56

hummuspie, Swindon, £92.50

Silo, Chelsea, £43.50

Tighty, SL-England, £74



Total returns £266.00

_________________________________


Profit/Loss April

£436 - £266= £170.00 loss, including £209 unsettled.

Unsettled bets carried forward - Anderson, Barnet (x2),£150, all of which has been accounted for in prev months accounts.

Unsettled bets April, Westwood Masters, Bolton, Walsall, Hull, Mumbai IPL, Cantlay, Rose, 72 hole MB, (8 bets, £200)


PROFIT EDITED, as I messed up the Betfair return.

[tikay]

Daily Summary.

No bets yesterday, a welcome rest after some frantic days.

The SL - England lay came in, well done Tighty, who gives us some cracking cricket sweats.

Barnet lost, which helped.

Most of the Masters stuff went, or is going, south, though I have £10 EW on Westwood @ 20/1 or thereabouts, I think, thanks to DoubleUP, so I'm still in with a shot, plus the Carbera 72 hole bet is still alive. Just.

Westwood is currently quoted on Betfair at 8 to back, or 8.2 to lay.....Will be good if he gets off to a decent start today. He played great yesterday, until blotting his copybook at the 18th. Anyway, we are still there with a chance.

Lots of football action today, with Bolton, Walsall, & Hull all playing, plus some new selections have been put up today, which I'll look at shortly. I need to see the Teams first, obv.....

[geordieneil]

Must be some value in Newcastle to finish top four, currently 11.5 with betfair. Arsenal and Spurs are 2points clear with a game in hand and Chelsea are 3 behind with a game in hand.
    Newcastle have 3 very winnable games coming next, Bolton (H) Stoke (H) and Wigan (A) with a good chance of being in the top four after these games, we then have 3 tough games Chelsea (A) Man City (H) and Everton (A) if Newcastle can pick up anything against Chelski or Citeh then I think it could be down to the final game of the season
   Newcastle are in great form winning their last 4, have 2 great strikers in Ba and Cisse and have a probably the best team spirit in the league, Arsenal too are playing well but lost there last game against QPR, but Spurs and Chelski have been very inconsistent of late.
   Its basically a four horse race with 2 winners, things have to go well for Newcastle but surely 11.5 is worth a "punt" (pretty much 10/1 after comm.)

   Must be worth a cheeky score

[jennymar86]

Hi Tikay,

I read earlier in this thread that you were opposed to doing multiple bets as you see the value in betting singles only.  Although this probably reduces variance I would also think that you were missing out some value in the long term.  I am a novice at this gambling lark but I read lots and study lots and slowly I am getting there and believe i have found a few decent judges to follow who often advocate Singles/Doubles on football with the occasional treble.  

Today from those that I follow.  One bet really sticks out for me.

Over 2.5 goal double in Southampton v Portsmouth and Coventry v Peterborough.  

In the first game taking the combined goals scored and conceded by Southampton on average there are 3 goals in each game they have played this season and by looking at the Portsmouth stats there record shows an average of 2.25 goals per game.   Both teams need a result for different reasons so will both be going at it hard.  Southampton have been overtaken at the top by Reading and West Ham are only 3 points behind in 3rd.   At the other end of the league Portsmouth who have started to get some decent results of late are only 5 points from safety and will be fighting all the way given some of the form of the other teams down there.  Infact had it not been for a 10 point deduction they would most likely be safe.

In the second game Coventry need points to secure survival in the championship and although the average number of goals in their games is generally quite low I am expecting that they will come under heavy pressure from Peterborough today who on average have 3 goals in each match they have played.   I expect that if Coventry are to win this game they are going to have to score a minimum of 2 goals as I don't see Peterborough not scoring here.  

The double should price around the 3.0 or 3.1 mark.  

Good luck.  

[doubleup]

slight prob with doubles is that it is rare to get the best price with the same book...

[tikay]

Going against the grain again...just really pointing out a very big (wrong ) price for Wigan to win at Chelsea today

Im not saying they will win but they have come into form ( Beating Liverpool away & Stoke )and the price is ridiculously big at 11-1 draw no bet

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/chelsea-v-wigan/draw-no-bet

I  think the main bet for me today are Norwich playing  Everton at fortress Carrow Road.

They represent decent value too as they can be backed at  11-10 draw no bet

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/norwich-v-everton-fc/draw-no-bet

Against the grain.....

Both bets, ON

Just £10 on Wigan, Fraser, I missed the price, but 9/1 is still way out of line with most books, so I've had a tenner.

£10 @ 9/1, Blue Square, DNB.


Wigan Athletic @ 9/1 
Market
 Draw No Bet
 
Event
 English Premier League
Chelsea v Wigan Athletic
2012-04-07 15:00:00
 
Bet Type
 
Bet Type
 Win Single
 
Unit Stake
 £10.00
 
Number of Units
 x1
 
Total Stake
 £10.00
 
Time and Date Placed
 2012-04-07 13:21:21
 
Receipt Number
 O/0891659/0000018

Had £25 on Norwich, too, DNB, @ 11/10, with Betvictor.

Norwich City v Everton
Norwich City
(Win Match - Draw No Bet)
Odds:  11/10
Stake:  25.00
Possible Return:  52.50

[tikay]

Thought i'd add my 10p worth to a great thread , so a nice easy start for me , On His Own 20/1 Grand National , I backed it off the boards in my small town for the thyestes chase after he was really unlucky to be brought down in previous race and he hacked up under casey at 10's and looked a real progressive stayer , likes a bit of cut and with rain forecast for most of the week I have backed him , now with the booking of ruby confirmed i'm going in again only small ew at a time , has the smell of a hedgehunter about it and could be fav by the off , obvs its the national and anything can happen but I sure he wont get any bigger after the ruby supporters get on , £25 ew

I'll look at this properly tomorrow or Monday, Judge, I need to get offline shortly, & am a bit busy.

Thanks for the nod.

[TightEnd]

Hi Tikay,

I read earlier in this thread that you were opposed to doing multiple bets as you see the value in betting singles only.  Although this probably reduces variance I would also think that you were missing out some value in the long term.  I am a novice at this gambling lark but I read lots and study lots and slowly I am getting there and believe i have found a few decent judges to follow who often advocate Singles/Doubles on football with the occasional treble.  

Today from those that I follow.  One bet really sticks out for me.

Over 2.5 goal double in Southampton v Portsmouth and Coventry v Peterborough.  

In the first game taking the combined goals scored and conceded by Southampton on average there are 3 goals in each game they have played this season and by looking at the Portsmouth stats there record shows an average of 2.25 goals per game.   Both teams need a result for different reasons so will both be going at it hard.  Southampton have been overtaken at the top by Reading and West Ham are only 3 points behind in 3rd.   At the other end of the league Portsmouth who have started to get some decent results of late are only 5 points from safety and will be fighting all the way given some of the form of the other teams down there.  Infact had it not been for a 10 point deduction they would most likely be safe.

In the second game Coventry need points to secure survival in the championship and although the average number of goals in their games is generally quite low I am expecting that they will come under heavy pressure from Peterborough today who on average have 3 goals in each match they have played.   I expect that if Coventry are to win this game they are going to have to score a minimum of 2 goals as I don't see Peterborough not scoring here.  

The double should price around the 3.0 or 3.1 mark.  

Good luck.  

Quite like both of these as singles, if you don't want to do the double or can't do it

[tikay]

Must be some value in Newcastle to finish top four, currently 11.5 with betfair. Arsenal and Spurs are 2points clear with a game in hand and Chelsea are 3 behind with a game in hand.
    Newcastle have 3 very winnable games coming next, Bolton (H) Stoke (H) and Wigan (A) with a good chance of being in the top four after these games, we then have 3 tough games Chelsea (A) Man City (H) and Everton (A) if Newcastle can pick up anything against Chelski or Citeh then I think it could be down to the final game of the season
   Newcastle are in great form winning their last 4, have 2 great strikers in Ba and Cisse and have a probably the best team spirit in the league, Arsenal too are playing well but lost there last game against QPR, but Spurs and Chelski have been very inconsistent of late.
   Its basically a four horse race with 2 winners, things have to go well for Newcastle but surely 11.5 is worth a "punt" (pretty much 10/1 after comm.)

   Must be worth a cheeky score

Thanks, wondered when you'd give us a bet, as I note you read the thread a lot!

I'll have a good look at that later today, thanks.

Newcastle seem to polarise opinions, violently one way or the other, for some reason. Some excellent judges seem to think they are outperforming, others not so much.

I'll ask someone with an independent view, perhaps. Where are you, Pleno?

[pleno1]

its going to be really really close, 11s seems super big but when it really really matters we have super tough games.

City at home who will most likely have a must win game
chelsea away who although we have a good record against probably have a stronger team and typically we dont do weell in london
everton away  although this looks a tough game, mot likely everton will have nothing to play for and our team spirit can come through.

I think betting now to lay later is a fantastic bet as most likely we will be in top 4 after wigan, bolton and stoke meaning we will probably be like maximum. So id siggest lumping the max on newcastle now and lay the bet before chelsea away.

[mondatoo]

Must be some value in Newcastle to finish top four, currently 11.5 with betfair. Arsenal and Spurs are 2points clear with a game in hand and Chelsea are 3 behind with a game in hand.
    Newcastle have 3 very winnable games coming next, Bolton (H) Stoke (H) and Wigan (A) with a good chance of being in the top four after these games, we then have 3 tough games Chelsea (A) Man City (H) and Everton (A) if Newcastle can pick up anything against Chelski or Citeh then I think it could be down to the final game of the season
   Newcastle are in great form winning their last 4, have 2 great strikers in Ba and Cisse and have a probably the best team spirit in the league, Arsenal too are playing well but lost there last game against QPR, but Spurs and Chelski have been very inconsistent of late.
   Its basically a four horse race with 2 winners, things have to go well for Newcastle but surely 11.5 is worth a "punt" (pretty much 10/1 after comm.)

   Must be worth a cheeky score

Thanks, wondered when you'd give us a bet, as I note you read the thread a lot!

I'll have a good look at that later today, thanks.

Newcastle seem to polarise opinions, violently one way or the other, for some reason. Some excellent judges seem to think they are outperforming, others not so much.

I'll ask someone with an independent view, perhaps. Where are you, Pleno?

The only reason I would back this is to lay it after the Wigan game if you think we'll do well in our next three : Bolton (H), Stoke (H) and Wigan (A), not sure of the others next three games though or how much the price would move if we found ourselves getting 7 or 9 points out of 9 and where in the top 4 at that point.

Basically I'd oppose it outright.

[tikay]

Hi Tikay,

I read earlier in this thread that you were opposed to doing multiple bets as you see the value in betting singles only.  Although this probably reduces variance I would also think that you were missing out some value in the long term.  I am a novice at this gambling lark but I read lots and study lots and slowly I am getting there and believe i have found a few decent judges to follow who often advocate Singles/Doubles on football with the occasional treble.  

Today from those that I follow.  One bet really sticks out for me.

Over 2.5 goal double in Southampton v Portsmouth and Coventry v Peterborough.  

In the first game taking the combined goals scored and conceded by Southampton on average there are 3 goals in each game they have played this season and by looking at the Portsmouth stats there record shows an average of 2.25 goals per game.   Both teams need a result for different reasons so will both be going at it hard.  Southampton have been overtaken at the top by Reading and West Ham are only 3 points behind in 3rd.   At the other end of the league Portsmouth who have started to get some decent results of late are only 5 points from safety and will be fighting all the way given some of the form of the other teams down there.  Infact had it not been for a 10 point deduction they would most likely be safe.

In the second game Coventry need points to secure survival in the championship and although the average number of goals in their games is generally quite low I am expecting that they will come under heavy pressure from Peterborough today who on average have 3 goals in each match they have played.   I expect that if Coventry are to win this game they are going to have to score a minimum of 2 goals as I don't see Peterborough not scoring here.  

The double should price around the 3.0 or 3.1 mark.  

Good luck.  

Thanks Jenny.

I never realised that the first bet was an early KO, & I misseed the p-rice quite badly I think, (currently 1-0) so I'd best swerve that.

I've had £25 on the Coventry one though, thank you, & GL us.

I'm not keen on Doubles, to be honest, we have to win twice to cash, & the bookies love that, & as so many in the thread say, "value" is all-important, DoubleUp makes the point perfectly. I got a black eye itt for taking 5/4 once when 11/10 was available, so I'm wary.......

ON


£25, BetVictor, 4/5.

Single Selections
Coventry City v Peterborough United
Over 2.5
(Over/Under 2.5)
Odds:  4/5
Stake:  25.00
Possible Return:  45.00

[geordieneil]

Must be some value in Newcastle to finish top four, currently 11.5 with betfair. Arsenal and Spurs are 2points clear with a game in hand and Chelsea are 3 behind with a game in hand.
    Newcastle have 3 very winnable games coming next, Bolton (H) Stoke (H) and Wigan (A) with a good chance of being in the top four after these games, we then have 3 tough games Chelsea (A) Man City (H) and Everton (A) if Newcastle can pick up anything against Chelski or Citeh then I think it could be down to the final game of the season
   Newcastle are in great form winning their last 4, have 2 great strikers in Ba and Cisse and have a probably the best team spirit in the league, Arsenal too are playing well but lost there last game against QPR, but Spurs and Chelski have been very inconsistent of late.
   Its basically a four horse race with 2 winners, things have to go well for Newcastle but surely 11.5 is worth a "punt" (pretty much 10/1 after comm.)

   Must be worth a cheeky score

Thanks, wondered when you'd give us a bet, as I note you read the thread a lot!

I'll have a good look at that later today, thanks.

Newcastle seem to polarise opinions, violently one way or the other, for some reason. Some excellent judges seem to think they are outperforming, others not so much.

I'll ask someone with an independent view, perhaps. Where are you, Pleno?

   There is no doubt we have been performing above expectations, we were after 5 games, also after 10 games and now after 32 games we're still over achieving,  think its time to admit Newcastle are genuine contenders for a CL spot.

   The truth is it will still be very tough to get a CL spot, but 11.5 has got to be too big for a 4 horse race with 2 winners, surely

EDIT: just checked the bet again now down to 5.4

[tikay]

Thanks for the extra feedback from plenners & Mondy on the Newcastle bet.

I'll have a major dither now.

Gotta go, things to do, places to see, photos to take, life to lead, balance & all that.

Back on tonight, & good luck everybody with today's football bets.

[tikay]

Must be some value in Newcastle to finish top four, currently 11.5 with betfair. Arsenal and Spurs are 2points clear with a game in hand and Chelsea are 3 behind with a game in hand.
    Newcastle have 3 very winnable games coming next, Bolton (H) Stoke (H) and Wigan (A) with a good chance of being in the top four after these games, we then have 3 tough games Chelsea (A) Man City (H) and Everton (A) if Newcastle can pick up anything against Chelski or Citeh then I think it could be down to the final game of the season
   Newcastle are in great form winning their last 4, have 2 great strikers in Ba and Cisse and have a probably the best team spirit in the league, Arsenal too are playing well but lost there last game against QPR, but Spurs and Chelski have been very inconsistent of late.
   Its basically a four horse race with 2 winners, things have to go well for Newcastle but surely 11.5 is worth a "punt" (pretty much 10/1 after comm.)

   Must be worth a cheeky score

Thanks, wondered when you'd give us a bet, as I note you read the thread a lot!

I'll have a good look at that later today, thanks.

Newcastle seem to polarise opinions, violently one way or the other, for some reason. Some excellent judges seem to think they are outperforming, others not so much.

I'll ask someone with an independent view, perhaps. Where are you, Pleno?

   There is no doubt we have been performing above expectations, we were after 5 games, also after 10 games and now after 32 games we're still over achieving,  think its time to admit Newcastle are genuine contenders for a CL spot.

   The truth is it will still be very tough to get a CL spot, but 11.5 has got to be too big for a 4 horse race with 2 winners, surely

EDIT: just checked the bet again now down to 5.4

Best price is now 5/4? In which case, your tip, by definition, was a cracker, & I missed it, ugh. At 5.4, not so much, I think you'd agree.

PS - I have no view on whether they are performing above or under expectation, just mentioning that is what many wise judges say. Opinion, the essence of everything in betting!