Tips for Tikay

[WarBwastard]

This thread has overtaken Red Dogs diary as the one i check out first whenever I enter the forum. Thought processes, value betting and gut instincts on all types of potential bets being thoroughly debated, before an old man has to make the decisions- terrific stuff.

On Saturday I recommended a bet, on a draw in a  rugby match, that the vast majority of the time was going to lose. I did it in the belief that the price was far too high. Of course it did lose but I am happy to have recommended it. I did however say to only wager £10 as bankroll management in all forms of gambling is even more important than seeking value.

So the recommendation to back Wigan to beat Arsenal to my mind is not an awful choice at 9-1. I like the fact that Wigan are fighting for their premiership survival, and have found some form. Also going for the bet is the fact that Arsenal are relatively clear in 3rd place and won't be getting 2nd, and the also that even at my advanced age I would still fancy myself to get a place in Arsenals central defence.

However, like my draw bet the amount to bet is important and  and I would hate to see Tikay investing more than £20 on a bet that like mine is more than likely going to be a loser. Is the bet value? Well on that " I haven't got a scooby!"

Now time to check out and see if that man who's wife recently died can win the UKIPT.

Actually Arsenal have a great defence now.  Since the turn of the year they have been transformed from the chaos that ran about the place in a Teutonic Polish shouty red blur (with the exception of the San Siro debacle).  Koscielny has been my player of the season other than Robin van Persie.  Sadly he's suspended tonight, but even if Johan Djourou has to play who worth roughly 1 goal a game to the opposition I still fancy Arsenal to win comfortably.

[hummuspie]

I've gone for Arsenal (-1) @ 13/20 with Hills (£500)

They were the best price out off the bookies i use online

[bobby1]

I have a question for Bobby1 or anyone with the knowledge.

Earlier in this thread you mentioned needing a larger sample of bets to cut out the effects of variance and to establish whether a strategy was really profitable.

Is there a timescale/number of bets where you can safely think variance can be discounted as a factor?

As an example, my spreadsheet since logging bets and betting on single football matches in a disciplined fashion has 191 entries. Would 500 bets or a 1000 bets give you a clear picture of real success or failure??

It depends on the odds and what you're doing. If you're betting short odds stuff, your winrate will converge in less bets, obv if you're betting 33/1+ shots all the time you're gonna need a massive sample. You can get a good idea of your true winrate if you're betting Asians/Totals by looking at closing price, but for others you're looking purely at your results. If you're betting the match odds, you could probably compare to Betfair close as well and get a good idea where you stand. If you're ahead of the moves on average, %-wise, you're probably good, if you're losing 1-2% each time, you're in for losing probably.

However, like my draw bet the amount to bet is important and  and I would hate to see Tikay investing more than £20 on a bet that like mine is more than likely going to be a loser. Is the bet value? Well on that " I haven't got a scooby!"

Kelly Stake. You need to be able to (roughly) define your edge under Kelly, but if you can't do that, well, you're probably not going to win anyway.

Horseplayer has a thread on here tipping up horses, I think his figs at the moment are losing, but he is putting up win bets on big priced horses that a lot of the time get shorter. Given he is going to back so few winners at those prices it needs a lot of bets to work thru to get a complete picture because 15 losers can be turned around in 1-2 bets.

If you are betting football teams then 191 is still a small sample but 500 just gives you more information and so on 1000. If you are winning after 191 bets tho, you are deffo doing good things. What might help too is if you split those bets into all different types. You will then see clearly where you are doing well and where you are doing so so. I had a light bulb moment years ago when I mined my own data and saw how completely clueless I was at cricket betting. I think its prob saved me a few quid since then by admitting I was just a bad judge and simply eliminating it.

[Ironside]

a little tennis flutter if your intrested

raonic is playing montanes today and should easy win and the 1.2 - 1.25 that is being offered is about right but if he wins he will win 2-0 his serve is so strong
and i think the 1.67 available on skybet is value stan james has him as low as 1.53 to win 2-0

i have even put on my first bet since trigg and camels dirty ew lucky 15 last month

[typhoon13]

Some people counter argue that there are now 2 boxes left, so they are both now evens to be right. the best way to over egg it is If you extrapolate the example to 10 boxes and you take box 1. I then have 9 boxes and take 2 to 8 away leaving just box 9, so it is now your box 1 v my box 9. You have got a massive amount of extra info since you made your first choice and because of that the odds are now massively in your favour to take box 9.

Bobby

Do you think you would have an edge over joe public playing deal or no deal?

[bobby1]

Some people counter argue that there are now 2 boxes left, so they are both now evens to be right. the best way to over egg it is If you extrapolate the example to 10 boxes and you take box 1. I then have 9 boxes and take 2 to 8 away leaving just box 9, so it is now your box 1 v my box 9. You have got a massive amount of extra info since you made your first choice and because of that the odds are now massively in your favour to take box 9.

Bobby

Do you think you would have an edge over joe public playing deal or no deal?

The edge would be understanding what the correct value of the bankers offers should be given which boxes were left. ( I havent watched it for ages so I apologise if the format has changed) but if I had an edge there I reckon Neil Channing/ADM  would be far more reliable/quicker in the long run than me so I would prob be disadvantaged if it was a str8 match against them.

[bobby1]

If that game is the same as I remember it tho then aren't there some theoretical situations that could throw up brilliant examples of how turning down value is the right thing to do from a staking point of view?

[tikay]

Terrific stuff, this, keep it coming, please.

Meanwhile, we have every angle on Arsenal Wigan covered. If we only knew which was the right one!

[Ant040689]

a little tennis flutter if your intrested

raonic is playing montanes today and should easy win and the 1.2 - 1.25 that is being offered is about right but if he wins he will win 2-0 his serve is so strong
and i think the 1.67 available on skybet is value stan james has him as low as 1.53 to win 2-0

i have even put on my first bet since trigg and camels dirty ew lucky 15 last month

On Raonic £50 to win 2-0 @ 4/6, having a punting day, no idea whats going on. Gl us!

[Ironside]

a little tennis flutter if your intrested

raonic is playing montanes today and should easy win and the 1.2 - 1.25 that is being offered is about right but if he wins he will win 2-0 his serve is so strong
and i think the 1.67 available on skybet is value stan james has him as low as 1.53 to win 2-0

i have even put on my first bet since trigg and camels dirty ew lucky 15 last month

On Raonic £50 to win 2-0 @ 4/6, having a punting day, no idea whats going on. Gl us!

its on sky so hoping to catch a bit of it when i final get my backside moving

[superwomble]

New manager for Barnet: http://www.barnetfc.com/page/LatestNews/0,,10431~2737524,00.html

Really hope they go down now, and I'm not even on the bet!

[bobby1]

That's not good news imo, Allen does have a record of improving teams in the short term.

[tikay]

New manager for Barnet: http://www.barnetfc.com/page/LatestNews/0,,10431~2737524,00.html

Really hope they go down now, and I'm not even on the bet!

Ooh, that is BAD!

On a brighter note, he has managed Barnet before AND Brentford. So there's hope......

[horseplayer]

anything is an improvement on sanchez

[tikay]

anything is an improvement on sanchez

We don't want an improvement!