Tips for Tikay

[bobby1]

Just seen the stats for the Chelsea game and the possession and pass rate were like 75% barca 25% Chelsea and 800 passes for barca to 200 for Chelsea.  One effort on goal for the Drog was all that was required against the 6 of the spaniards.  Hope they can perform miracles at the Nou camp ( still can't bring myself to call it the camp nou ) but the home record for them this season reads played 30 w27 d3 L zero

I was rather hoping that someone would find a "value" bet for Barca to qualify for the Final, from what I saw last night, Barca will murder Chelsea in the 2nd leg, but I just put the money on, & don't have the knowledge of football that many have.

I was also slightly surprised that no bets on either Team for this weekend appeared overnight - after such exertions, particularly by Chelsea, they will find it tough to compete on Saturday. They are away to Arsenal (lunchtime KO, too, so even less recovery time), & I'd have thought they would really struggle.  Arsenal can still be backed for that at Evens, too.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/arsenal-v-chelsea/winner

Unless someone tells me I am talking out of my ample arse, I may even put up my first ever tip, too.  Then again, maybe not - I prefer to blame others for my losses, as I'm a poker player.

It did cross my mind with Arsenal but the price looked to have only a small amount of juice to me, I might be wrong tho. Baca play Real, and simply must go for the win to make up ground on Real in the league.

[redarmi]

Yeah a bet on Arsenal crossed my mind too and evens seems fair given the league positions but it is marginal.  I certainly couldn't reasonably make Arsenal shorter than 10/11 and even that is a stretch.  The Real game is too big for Barca to overlook imo.

[the sicilian]

Good stuff, hope QPR in particular comes in.

As with the under 2.5 goals Greece bet, i told my mate yesterday about it and while watching the Chelsea game in the pub, he got on sky sports centre and showed me this.

                                            Panetolikos 5-4 Aris Salonika
                                                        ( 2-0)   

lol. We were just a bit wrong then.

The score yesterday was 5-1.... tbh i was more than unhappy ( there was mucho footstamping and tears )..apart from having a decent sized bet on it the analysis was good and I've done quite well on Greek super league unders... to say the result was out of the ordinary is an understatement...slightly embarrassing but meh sure hasn't happened before...got worse on the Chelsea game but recovered most of a horrible day with a nice 4 fold NBA bet late on.... beware German regional Amateur football is the way forward..

[redarmi]

Should probably elaborate a bit with a bit of theory here actually.   If two teams are of equal ability, motivation etc and it would an each of two game on a neutral field then the correct prices for the game to 100% (assuming average goals) are home 6/5, draw 11/4 and away 13/5.  In this game it is probably a fair assumption that in a game with similar motivations they are close in ability although it is probably arguable each way as to which is the better team so the Champs League (and to a lesser degree FA Cup) distractions are already definitely in the price with Arsenal priced at Evens so the question is whether it has been discounted enough not whether it has been discounted at all.  The key I think is to look at the depth of Chelseas squad to see what difference that would make and whilst it is undoubtedly the case they will play a weakened team the question is how weak?  I woudl hazard a guess it will be mainly players they dont intend to play next week v Barca but that probably includes Torres, Malouda, Essien, Kalou, Sturridge etc and presumably even if those players are resigned to not playing in the second leg they are motivated to impress for the FA Cup final and maybe CL final too.

[tikay]

Just seen the stats for the Chelsea game and the possession and pass rate were like 75% barca 25% Chelsea and 800 passes for barca to 200 for Chelsea.  One effort on goal for the Drog was all that was required against the 6 of the spaniards.  Hope they can perform miracles at the Nou camp ( still can't bring myself to call it the camp nou ) but the home record for them this season reads played 30 w27 d3 L zero

I was rather hoping that someone would find a "value" bet for Barca to qualify for the Final, from what I saw last night, Barca will murder Chelsea in the 2nd leg, but I just put the money on, & don't have the knowledge of football that many have.

I was also slightly surprised that no bets on either Team for this weekend appeared overnight - after such exertions, particularly by Chelsea, they will find it tough to compete on Saturday. They are away to Arsenal (lunchtime KO, too, so even less recovery time), & I'd have thought they would really struggle.  Arsenal can still be backed for that at Evens, too.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/arsenal-v-chelsea/winner

Unless someone tells me I am talking out of my ample arse, I may even put up my first ever tip, too.  Then again, maybe not - I prefer to blame others for my losses, as I'm a poker player.

It did cross my mind with Arsenal but the price looked to have only a small amount of juice to me, I might be wrong tho. Baca play Real, and simply must go for the win to make up ground on Real in the league.

(& to redarmi, too).

And that is why I don't do my own "tips".

My theory was right though, in looking for that specific piece of value. Just need to work on the numbers now. 

[tikay]

Should probably elaborate a bit with a bit of theory here actually.   If two teams are of equal ability, motivation etc and it would an each of two game on a neutral field then the correct prices for the game to 100% (assuming average goals) are home 6/5, draw 11/4 and away 13/5.  In this game it is probably a fair assumption that in a game with similar motivations they are close in ability although it is probably arguable each way as to which is the better team so the Champs League (and to a lesser degree FA Cup) distractions are already definitely in the price with Arsenal priced at Evens so the question is whether it has been discounted enough not whether it has been discounted at all.  The key I think is to look at the depth of Chelseas squad to see what difference that would make and whilst it is undoubtedly the case they will play a weakened team the question is how weak?  I woudl hazard a guess it will be mainly players they dont intend to play next week v Barca but that probably includes Torres, Malouda, Essien, Kalou, Sturridge etc and presumably even if those players are resigned to not playing in the second leg they are motivated to impress for the FA Cup final and maybe CL final too.

Superb, thanks.

[bobby1]

Hi mate, Ive sent you a PM if you have time to read it.

cheers

[bobby1]

If you like the obscure ones Tony lets try this.

Aussie Rules this Saturday.

£90 Port Adelaide + 41 1/2 points v Collingwood( it is 5/6 which I wouldn't normally take but the line will be mid 30's soon) with either Stan, or Hills

As big fav's Collingwood are taking no chances with two of their best players and both will miss the game.

[tikay]

If you like the obscure ones Tony lets try this.

Aussie Rules this Saturday.

£90 Port Adelaide + 41 1/2 points v Collingwood( it is 5/6 which I wouldn't normally take but the line will be mid 30's soon) with either Stan, or Hills

As big fav's Collingwood are taking no chances with two of their best players and both will miss the game.

On my way, give me 5 mins please......

[bobby1]

ooops, the line with Stan has moved to 39 1/2  , Hills and Bodog are still 41 1/2

[tikay]

If you like the obscure ones Tony lets try this.

Aussie Rules this Saturday.

£90 Port Adelaide + 41 1/2 points v Collingwood( it is 5/6 which I wouldn't normally take but the line will be mid 30's soon) with either Stan, or Hills

As big fav's Collingwood are taking no chances with two of their best players and both will miss the game.

Got there in the nick of time, then!

£90 with Stan James @ 5/6.


ON


£90.00 Single
    Selection   Hcp   Price
Collingwood Magpies v Port Adelaide : Full-Time Handicap   Port Adelaide   +41.5   5/6
Total stake   £90.00
Estimated return   £165.00
Full stake   £   90.00
Full Estimated return   £   165.00

[bobby1]

Blimey, I guess if more than a few people start to bet on quite an obscure sport in quick succession it will stand out a little. Didn't Dave say some firms took down the FT market in that Greek game yesterday?

They were prob sat there thinking WTF is going on with this game when a line of bets appeared

[hector62]

Shame none of the cricket matches are being played in Devon- it's a beautiful day here.

[the sicilian]

Blimey, I guess if more than a few people start to bet on quite an obscure sport in quick succession it will stand out a little. Didn't Dave say some firms took down the FT market in that Greek game yesterday?

They were prob sat there thinking WTF is going on with this game Woo Hoo !! Here come a bunch of mug punters..when a line of bets appeared

FYP

[redarmi]

Interesting one in the cricket today.  Sangakarra @ 7/2 Stan James or 10/3 Skybet to be top Deccan batsman.  Think 11/4 is probably about the right price.