Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Mumbai Indians have just beaten a poor Deccan Chargers team but they made really hard work of it.
That takes them to 3rd in the table but it's far too close to make any predictions.

Thanks Mere. At least we are still in the mix.

[tikay]

Totterington are quite capable of not winning this actually.  I would say they're the best in the league at playing brilliantly for the first half and not showing up for the second half.  Even Blackburn could score against a second half totterington...especially after twitchy has tried to explain his tactics in cockney rhyming slang to van der Vaart and Adebayor.

One reason I enjoy this thread so much, is that a lot of different people are interacting, & without it, I doubt I'd ever seen such a beautiful piece of observational humour & superb writing as that.

It was quite a testing day for me yesteday, but that had me giggling quietly to myself for hours, trying to picture the scene, be a fly on the wall to that convo.

Post more.

[henrik777]

Not a tip per se and not interesting to  most punters either.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/manchester-city-v-manchester-united/minutes-of-stipulated-added-time-in-2nd-half

2nd half injury time minutes. Market is betting to just over 96%. To guarantee a minimum net return of £3.65 per £96.29 invested bet as follows 

0 mins injury time    40/1       bet £2.44      returns   £100.04   BWIN

1 min injury time     25/1       bet £3.85      returns   £100.10   BWIN

2 mins injury time   6/1         bet £14.29     returns   £100.03   LADS

3 mins injury time   9/4         bet £30.77    returns   £100.00   LADS

4 mins injury time   5/2         bet £28.57    returns   £100       BWIN

5 mins injury time   8/1         bet £11.11    returns   £99.99     BWIN

6+ mins injury time 18/1       bet £5.26      returns   £99.94     BWIN


Minimum return £99.94 cost of bets £96.29

Sandy

[henrik777]

Proper bet this time.

2nd half to have the most goals 11/10 , Bwin, Corals  http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/manchester-city-v-manchester-united/highest-scoring-half


1st half records

http://footballstats.sportinglife.com/dom/ENG/PR/fsthalf.html

Man Utd   GF 1.05   GA 0.20

Man City  GF 0.80       GA 0.17

2nd half records

http://footballstats.sportinglife.com/dom/ENG/PR/sndhalf.html

Man Utd   GF 1.40   GA 0.71

Man City  GF 1.68       GA 0.60


12 of the last 15 City games have seen more goals in the 2nd half. Both sides have more goals for and against in the 2nd half over the season. It's a title changing game so should be tight early and yet 11/10 is available. Big price.

Sandy

[tikay]

You do love your stats, Sandy! Thanks.

Is it settled by the "official" added time, as noted on that silly little board the 4th Official holds up (so 1970's, that), or the ACTUAL added time?

A weird aside here, geeks only apply.

"The Game" (in "The Times" every Monday) has been following the ridiculous way added time is worked out & implemented for a while now, & have spotted that if one team is leading by several goals, there is a tendancy for referees to truncate the added time.   

At the Southampton Coventry match, the 2nd half included three injury delays (assessed to be 4.5 minutes), two goals, & three substitutions. Added time? One minute & 10 seconds. Score at the time? 4-0.

So if City or Utd are a hatful ahead at 90 minutes, looks like short is the way to go.  Whereas if Utd are a goal down.........

It's plainly ridiculous that the time is decided upon a whim.

Love all this stuff, keep it coming.

[doubleup]

Not a tip per se and not interesting to  most punters either.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/manchester-city-v-manchester-united/minutes-of-stipulated-added-time-in-2nd-half

2nd half injury time minutes. Market is betting to just over 96%. To guarantee a minimum net return of £3.65 per £96.29 invested bet as follows 

0 mins injury time    40/1       bet £2.44      returns   £100.04   BWIN

1 min injury time     25/1       bet £3.85      returns   £100.10   BWIN

2 mins injury time   6/1         bet £14.29     returns   £100.03   LADS

3 mins injury time   9/4         bet £30.77    returns   £100.00   LADS

4 mins injury time   5/2         bet £28.57    returns   £100       BWIN

5 mins injury time   8/1         bet £11.11    returns   £99.99     BWIN

6+ mins injury time 18/1       bet £5.26      returns   £99.94     BWIN


Minimum return £99.94 cost of bets £96.29

Sandy

surely the main value here is


3 mins injury time   9/4         bet £30.77    returns   £100.00   LADS - bwin are apparently 7/10 for this

[TightEnd]

Setting up for a maximum bet tip for tomorrow

It is currently Matthew Stevens (Wal) 8-8 Barry Hawkins (Eng) in the snooker

The winner plays Ryan Day in the Quarters

If Hawkins wins, I want to oppose him, price permitting in the Quarters.

Because Day himself is not one of the top few players then it could be priced up quite evenly, when in reality I think Day would be a good thing


Hawkins beat Mark Selby in the first round, but Selby was injured

Stevens is talented but wildly inconsistent

In these two matches so far Hawkins has a top break of 80

His long pot success in the sixteen frames of the second round match is 47%

He simply will not score heavily enough to go further in the tournament, and it is only the Selby injury and Stevens' inconsistency, the vagaries of the draw in other words, that will send him through a couple of matches

Ryan Day beat Ding 10-9, a great win and then Yupeng 13-7


Would welcome bobby1, Henrik etc on this, of course

[horseplayer]

would certainly make day favourite myself  but he isnt that consistent either is he?

(far from an expert on snooker though)

[TightEnd]

would certainly make day favourite myself  but he isnt that consistent either is he?

(far from an expert on snooker though)

No he isn't, and that creates the price opportunity.

What he is though is a more consistent scorer than Hawkins, and over 25 frames I don't think he'd live with Day. 47% long pot success rate is horrible at this level.

I hesitate to say it, because I am only a layman, but watching last night he was dragging a lot of pots to his right. I wondered if he had a technical flaw.

All off if Stevens wins it, of course

[tikay]

Setting up for a maximum bet tip for tomorrow

It is currently Matthew Stevens (Wal) 8-8 Barry Hawkins (Eng) in the snooker

The winner plays Ryan Day in the Quarters

If Hawkins wins, I want to oppose him, price permitting in the Quarters.

Because Day himself is not one of the top few players then it could be priced up quite evenly, when in reality I think Day would be a good thing


Hawkins beat Mark Selby in the first round, but Selby was injured

Stevens is talented but wildly inconsistent

In these two matches so far Hawkins has a top break of 80

His long pot success in the sixteen frames of the second round match is 47%

He simply will not score heavily enough to go further in the tournament, and it is only the Selby injury and Stevens' inconsistency, the vagaries of the draw in other words, that will send him through a couple of matches

Ryan Day beat Ding 10-9, a great win and then Yupeng 10-7


Would welcome bobby1, Henrik etc on this, of course

Another great piece of Tighty analysis. Will await further input though. I'd do it today if necessary, as it would not affect our April profits, the way we account for them.

Glad you reminded me, actually, because I note you Posted last week "scrub the quirky cricket bet this week, the weather is bad", which I thought was typically selfless of you. As it happened, ALL the games ended in draws! Someone even suggested backing the draws, but that was not really the idea behind your cunning scheme.

[tikay]

would certainly make day favourite myself  but he isnt that consistent either is he?

(far from an expert on snooker though)

No he isn't, and that creates the price opportunity.

What he is though is a more consistent scorer than Hawkins, and over 25 frames I don't think he'd live with Day. 47% long pot success rate is horrible at this level.

I hesitate to say it, because I am only a layman, but watching last night he was dragging a lot of pots to his right. I wondered if he had a technical flaw.

All off if Stevens wins it, of course

Was Ryan Day the kid that came to one of our SPT's, last year, Manchester maybe?

[henrik777]

You do love your stats, Sandy! Thanks.

Is it settled by the "official" added time, as noted on that silly little board the 4th Official holds up (so 1970's, that), or the ACTUAL added time?

A weird aside here, geeks only apply.

"The Game" (in "The Times" every Monday) has been following the ridiculous way added time is worked out & implemented for a while now, & have spotted that if one team is leading by several goals, there is a tendancy for referees to truncate the added time.   

At the Southampton Coventry match, the 2nd half included three injury delays (assessed to be 4.5 minutes), two goals, & three substitutions. Added time? One minute & 10 seconds. Score at the time? 4-0.

So if City or Utd are a hatful ahead at 90 minutes, looks like short is the way to go.  Whereas if Utd are a goal down.........

It's plainly ridiculous that the time is decided upon a whim.

Love all this stuff, keep it coming.

A good question which seems to have alluded the rules on both sites. I would be of the opinion that it's actual time though since they offer 0 minutes and the board doesn't generally go up until 90 mins. This would mean that  the board would have to go up showing 0 at the same time as the whistle blows whilst common sense tells you he ain't gonna lift the board when the whistle goes.

Sandy

[TightEnd]

Backing the draws would have been good, but at the time draw prices were not available..the major bookmakers cognisant no doubt of thin markets for country cricket and the weather forecast weren't offering draw odds. None were up on OddsChecker, no depth on Betfair etc etc

We should be in business for cricket quirkiness this week

[Karabiner]

I reckon Day would be around 4/6 v Hawkins or 5/4 v Stevens.

I'd make Day a good bet if that were the price in the latter.

[AndrewT]

I have never known there to be 0 minutes of added time in a normal match - I've only seen the ref blow up right on time at the end of the first 15 minutes of extra time.