Tips for Tikay

[hector62]

I have backed under 2 1/2 goals but not going to recommend it as a bet ITT. Both teams are more afraid of losing than trying to win. Plan will be 0-0 till half time, sneak a goal and then park the bus. May see a lot of cards in the last 20 mins if anyone is ahead.

[geordieneil]

Marriner averages 3.5 yellows this year and 3.59 last year. Not what i'd call card happy.

Sandy

so what would you call card happy?  he's 3rd highest only behind Phil Dowd 3.78 per match and Mike Dean at 3.68

Andre Marriner    19    68    27    41    23    45    3.58 per match

The most common number for under/over in bookings greater than 3.58. A card happy ref would have numbers higher than this frequently.

Sandy

So basically what your saying is there is no such thing as a card happy ref?    then we should get on every single match in the world at under 4.5 cards and all be millionaires in a few weeks...seen as the highest average is 3.78.

if not this then please define card happy, I'm intrigued

I'm not after an argument, but if what you say is correct, then maybe we just occidentally found the next "hole in one club"

[henrik777]

Marriner averages 3.5 yellows this year and 3.59 last year. Not what i'd call card happy.

Sandy

so what would you call card happy?  he's 3rd highest only behind Phil Dowd 3.78 per match and Mike Dean at 3.68

Andre Marriner    19    68    27    41    23    45    3.58 per match

The most common number for under/over in bookings greater than 3.58. A card happy ref would have numbers higher than this frequently.

Sandy

So basically what your saying is there is no such thing as a card happy ref?    then we should get on every single match in the world at under 4.5 cards and all be millionaires in a few weeks...seen as the highest average is 3.78.

if not this then please define card happy, I'm intrigued

I'm not after an argument, but if what you say is correct, then maybe we just occidentally found the next "hole in one club"

Just did a quick snapshot on bet365 and it seems most are 3.5 with Liv v Ful 2.5. Things have obviously changed. Used to be 4/4.5 mostly with derbies/big games more.

Obviously if you get on the right side of a correction like that you are golden.

Sandy

[henrik777]

Premier League Referee’s Stats 2010/11
Referee  Games  Cards  Booking Points
Lee Mason  23  4.8  48.5
Phil Dowd  30  4.3  44.2
Martin Atkinson  26  4.2  44.0
Anthony Taylor  13  4.2  42.7
Kevin Friend  19  3.9  40.8
Stuart Attwell  14  3.9  39.6
Andre Marriner  27  3.9  39.1
Michael Oliver  16  3.8  38.1
Peter Walton  26  3.8  35.9
Mike Dean  30  3.6  36.3
Michael Jones  26  3.5  35.2
Howard Webb  29  3.5  34.8
Mark Clattenburg  23  3.1  31.7
Lee Probert  26 2.9  30.2
Chris Foy  27  2.9  29.8
Mark Halsey  21  2.0  19.8


Lee Mason was clearly card happy

Sandy

[tikay]

I have backed under 2 1/2 goals but not going to recommend it as a bet ITT. Both teams are more afraid of losing than trying to win. Plan will be 0-0 till half time, sneak a goal and then park the bus. May see a lot of cards in the last 20 mins if anyone is ahead.

Appreciate the caution, hector, thanks.

I might go (small) with David's suggestion, but nothing else has jumped off the page yet.

[horseplayer]

presumably you have taken up the bet365 offer already tikay?

[TheDazzler]

I have backed under 2 1/2 goals but not going to recommend it as a bet ITT. Both teams are more afraid of losing than trying to win. Plan will be 0-0 till half time, sneak a goal and then park the bus. May see a lot of cards in the last 20 mins if anyone is ahead.

Appreciate the caution, hector, thanks.

I might go (small) with David's suggestion, but nothing else has jumped off the page yet.

Tikay, go into your Bet365 account to see if you have that £50 offer.

[Josedinho]

Everyone has it

[TightEnd]

tikay the Bet365 offer

£50 before the start at 12/5 on the draw

£50 once it has started at 12/5 on the draw

http://www.bet365.com/news/en/betting/press-releases/back-by-popular-demand---bet365-free-in-play-bet-on-manchester-derby

You are getting £50 back if the second bet loses, effectively double odds


You can of course do the same bet on either team to win, as long as you do the second "in play" the offer will hold


Camel advised this bet (but with Man C to win) a few days ago

[tikay]

The 365 offer - thanks guys. No, not yet, & yes, will do.

[TightEnd]

sorry, I was a bit late....what the others said!

[tikay]

Just posted this in the Buying Stuff for Nits thread where Eso Krai is attempting to get to St Kitts the cheap way by backing a 4 - 4 draw..

Bet both to score - 8/13

I'm no betting expert so can't say if the price is right,  but I'd say that with our (Manchester United) defence as it is, and City's attack, plus the fact that we need to NOT LOSE, and the only way this ends 1-0 or any - nil,  is if we score first and manage to park the bus (which, given my earlier observations about the defence, City's forwards, and our DNA coded 'attack is the best form of defence' style is unlikely)

Thus, both teams to score seems extermely likely.

I stand to be corrected on the price.

Am having a small interest there, David, as you are the man on fire right now, with that £10k bink yesterday. Tenuous? Just a bit. Daft? Probably. Nice? Yup.

£65 @ 8/13 with Ladbrokes to win £40.

ON

Selection8/13 - Yes

EventManchester City v Manchester Utd English

MarketBoth teams to score
 Your bets (1) Single - Yes
1 line at £65.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £65.00
Potential Return: £105.00
Time: 30/04/12 18:37
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000016

[tikay]

Something of interest I've just been sent:

100% (17/17) of Man City’s home games have gone Under 6.5 Cards

94% (16/17) of Man Utd’s away games have gone Under 6.5 Cards

All of Man City’s last 5 home games have gone Under 6.5 Cards

All of Man Utd’s last 5 away games have gone Under 6.5 Cards

85% (17/20) of Andre Marriner’s games have gone Under 6.5 Cards


Suggests backing under 6.5 cards (about 5/6 I believe) should be good.

Lets do that, too.

£60 with Bet365, @ 5/6.

ON
Under 6.5 @ 5/6
£50.00 Single 30/04/2012 18:44:55 50.00 0.00

[horseplayer]

my only bet in the game is the 12-5 with corals that it is 0-0 at half time

have not done the stats but on recent evidence in the big games this appears a little on the big side

[WarBwastard]

This isn't a 'tip'  as it looks like we're covered for tonights game now but just so you know, I will be investing a few shillings in City to win tonight, but Utd to win the Championship at 7/1 with sky bet.  If Citeh win they're level on points. Citeh have Newcastle away and QPR at home. United have Swansea at home and Sunderland away. Cith have +6 GD as we speak I think.  

Got an awful feeling this will turn out to be a tremendous anti-climax tonight with not even a single bitch fight.