Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Our cricket bet continued yesterday, which was Day Three, today being the final day.

Middlesex: 327-7 (86.0 overs)
Worcestershire: 45-2 (16.4 overs)

So, we just have to skittle out Worcs twice for sub 280. In fact, perfectly do-able, if the weather permitted. I am presently some 10 or 15 miles from Lords, it is currently, cold, & overcast, with low cloud. Optimistic, see? Betfair are optimistic, too.

Middlesex 7.6

Worcs 35.6

Draw 1.05.

Hmm.

Perhaps an unlikely saviour will be Basingstoke, who we have bet in the Conference South. They travel to mighty Dartford today. Yup, Dartford.

We return to Newmarket, for the 1000 Guineas, on a recovery mission. We have Moonstone Magic for £25 @ 7/1, but she is easy in the market, Ladbrokes have her @ 10/1.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/newmarket/15:15

My favourite modern-day trainer Henry Cecil has won the 1000 Guineas no less than 6 times, & the Oaks 8 times, but is not repped today. Perhaps we can profit in his absence.

We had two "entertainment" bets yesterday, OverTheBorder gave us a BGT turn, while MANTIS gave us some dreadful tosh.

Always on my miiiiinnnnddddddd

Both turns survived, so we must endure them for a while yet. Might even get a bink, you never know, though MANTIS would be unbearable if we did.

Football today? You bet, & we have - the rarity of a MAXIMUM wager on Spurs to turn Villa over. It really looks a good thing, only bankroll rules stop me pressing, & if the same Spurs turn up as we saw in the week, count the winnings now.

That's us done for the moment.

[superwomble]

We also have Basingstoke's second leg with Dartford today. Only a win is good enough for 'Stoke...

[tikay]

There has been mention from pleno & others of punting their beloved Newcastle today, & 0-0, under 2.5, & under 4.5 were mentioned.

0-0 is available @ 12/1, under 2.5 @ 11/10, & under 4.5 @ 1/7.

Oddly, with City @ 4/6, the value appears to be with Newcastle @ 4/1.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/newcastle-v-manchester-city/winner

However, we currently have no interest in the game.

If Mr Pleno or others want to make a case, we are all ears. Note it is a 1.30pm start, & I'll be offline most of the morning.

Have a good day, whatever you do.

[tikay]

We also have Basingstoke's second leg with Dartford today. Only a win is good enough for 'Stoke...

We certainly do, see.....

Perhaps an unlikely saviour will be Basingstoke, who we have bet in the Conference South. They travel to mighty Dartford today. Yup, Dartford.

Not sure why you mention Stoke, we have no interest, though I see they are a juicy 0/30 or so.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/qpr-v-stoke/winner

[superwomble]

Oops sorry I missed that bit, it is early...!

Wary of being levelled but maybe it was too early for you to notice the apostrophe in 'Stoke

[MANTIS01]

Actually Vince Kidd will learn his fate tonight after the public have voted so he's not safe yet. Don't forget to vote on 09011 21 31 05.

No real sweat thou because his performance of Always on my Mind was stunningly commercial and he'll undoubtedly get one more chance to keep Tikay satisfied. I learnt this week that Vince is already signed by Sony as a songwriter. I find it comforting that Sony have similar ability in recognising musical talent as myself.

[tikay]

Oops sorry I missed that bit, it is early...!

Wary of being levelled but maybe it was too early for you to notice the apostrophe in 'Stoke

Yup, you got me completely, I missed that apostrophe! Sorry.

[tikay]

Actually Vince Kidd will learn his fate tonight after the public have voted so he's not safe yet. Don't forget to vote on 09011 21 31 05.

No real sweat thou because his performance of Always on my Mind was stunningly commercial and he'll undoubtedly get one more chance to keep Tikay satisfied. I learnt this week that Vince is already signed by Sony as a songwriter. I find it comforting that Sony have similar ability in recognising musical talent as myself.

God help us.

Vince is on Sony's books?

You do know that MereNovice is "Vince"?

I think Mere may make a better job of singering, too.

Always on myyyyyy minnnnnnddddddd.

[MereNovice]

Many people have remarked on my fine singing voice.

[hector62]

With regards to Newcastle v City being 0-0. I wouldn't touch it, as that result helps neither side. You have to figure on City going all out for the win leaving space for Newcastle to counter attack. As I think City are only an average side I can see 2-1 to Newcastle or 2-2.

Spent 30 mins yesterday trying to come up with my rugby league bet for you. Came down to 2 possibles and chose the one at the shorter odds thinking it would be the most likely winner. Only to see my 2nd choice, Hull to beat Leeds, come in at 4-1. Also my ESP messages to Mr Camel fell on deaf ears as I was trying to get him to let the thread  take the profit on the Barnet relegation bet. A bad day.

[superwomble]

You know what I've always thought was missing from 'Always on my mind'? Some random 'ugh ugh ugh's....

[superwomble]

Here's a stat-based tip for you:

In their last 5 home games, Newcastle have received an average of 18.0 Booking Points – 41.0 against.
In their last 5 away games, Man City have received an average of 25.0 Booking Points – 8.0 against.
Newcastle’s opponents have received Most Booking Points in 4 of their last 5 home games.
Man City have received the Most Booking Points in all of their last 5 away games.

You can get 6/5 at SkyBet on Man. City getting the most booking points. Worth a little dabble I think.

[Snowball]

Worcester declared at 45/2 so all not lossed.
Seen a little bit of value on this mornings IPL but left it off here as I know how much you love the "Bish, Bosh Bash" 

[TightEnd]

Worcester declared at 45/2 so all not lossed.
Seen a little bit of value on this mornings IPL but left it off here as I know how much you love the "Bish, Bosh Bash" 

Contrived result possible then

Need 280 odd in 75ish overs and are 21-0


Frustratingly both matches that started a day earlier hit easy results at the start of the fourth days

[redarmi]

Here's a stat-based tip for you:

In their last 5 home games, Newcastle have received an average of 18.0 Booking Points – 41.0 against.
In their last 5 away games, Man City have received an average of 25.0 Booking Points – 8.0 against.
Newcastle’s opponents have received Most Booking Points in 4 of their last 5 home games.
Man City have received the Most Booking Points in all of their last 5 away games.

You can get 6/5 at SkyBet on Man. City getting the most booking points. Worth a little dabble I think.

Think this is a case of you being able to use statistics to say whatever you want.  Firstly, 5 games is a very poor sample.  Secondly, Balotelli (who won't play today) is responsible for 35 of those points and if you take his points out then it would be 18 points a piece and they would only have won 3 of the five games.  Finally, City are always likely to receive more points when playing in pressure games against teams that don't have much to play for.   The draw is a big runner in these situations too so 6/5 is only an each of two price with margin added in.  Not saying it won't win but I cant see how it is priced wrong tbh.