Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Tennis.
French Open.
Serena Williams to win the Championship.
Generally available at 6/1.
Well worth £50.
Price will soon shorten.

Ooh, that rarest of rare things, a Mere tip, & with he being an avid follower of the Girlie Tennis circuit, we have to get on.

I missed the 6/1, & following - of course - advice from one my my degen mentors yesterday, one D Shallow Esq (WPT Winner), we have REDUCED the bet size accordingly.

We have £40 with Mr P Power @ 5/1, Miss S Williams to win the Frenchie Open Girlie Tennis. 

ON 

Ladies French Open Ladies French Open Outright 2012
18-05-2012 12:00
Outright Betting
S Williams @ 5/1
 
Your Bets Win
Single: S Williams @ 5/1
1 line at £40.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £40.00
Potential returns: £240.00
No: O/23146337/0000031  

She's 6.6 on Betfair.
Never mind.

Sorry Vince, but I did go to Oddschecker first, at the time the price was 49/10, at time of this Post Betfair go 6.4, whilst currently Oddschecker are quoting Betfair as 51.10.

Her price is clearly swinging & swonging, & whilst you were swinging, I was swonging. We need to better synchronise our ying & yang.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/french-open/womens-french-open/womens-french-open-2012/winner

[Dubai]

oddschecker is rarely right when it quotes betfair prices. Always check

[tikay]

Daily Update, as at c-o-b Thursday 10th May

LOSS on Month £509

Unsettled bets 845

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=6

[Graham C]

New manager at Wolves, didn't someone have a bet on that?  Did it make the required games for the tempory manager to get paid out?

[MereNovice]

New manager at Wolves, didn't someone have a bet on that?  Did it make the required games for the tempory manager to get paid out?

Yes, thankfully.

[tikay]

Daily Summary as at c-o-b Thursday 10th May.

It was coulda-woulda-shoulda day yesterday, we were that close to wiping out 75% of our May loss with some lovely darts bets, but the reality was less kind, & we ended up with a small loss, via 2 losses, a win, & a DNB. It just needed one of those losses to win for a £200 swing in our favour, & we were almost over the line. But not quite.

We added two Aussie Rules/RL bets, we now have 4 of those on the go, one settles today (Mr Girgles successful debut, in tomorrow's numbers) the other three being tomorrow & Sunday. 

HUGE fun in the golf, more of which shortly.

That apart, nothing else lined up for today. I think the only televised football today is the League One affair between Stevenage & Sheff Utd. 
   

[tikay]

What's coming up?

The stuff mentioned above excepted, we have some interesting Golf situations in the TPC.

We have Poulter to be "Top Englishman", £10 @ 20/1. Currently 1.6 (!) on Betfair. 

Poulter to win, £30 win & £10 place (misclicks ftw) @ 80/1. Currently  10.5 on Betfair.

Crane, £10 EW @ 66/1. Currently 22 on Betfair.

It can all go terribly wrong so very quickly though, 54 tee shots & 40 odd approach shots remain on a course where wet stuff, nasty greenery, sticky-uppy trees, & awkward bunkers lurk everywhere.

We shall see.

[tikay]

Mr Tikay i give you Josh Morris

Thank you Mr Girgy.

For now, however, a Stewards Enquiry is in progress.

Here is the relevant Bet History from my Bet365 "Settled Bets" Account.

1 Josh Morris (Canterbury Bulldogs)  Canterbury Bulldogs v Gold Coast Titans
(To Score a Try) 11/05/2012 None 4/7 Lost Stake:  70.00   To Win:  40.00   Returns:  0.00     
Total Stake: 70.00   Total Returns:  0.00 

I have engaged in dialogue with their "Chat", & they have passed it to their Trading Desk for "review".

I'm sure it will be correctly settled in due course.

I quoted this website & page as my point of reference.....

 http://www.foxsports.com.au/league/nrl-premiership/gold-coast-titans-find-winning-formula-to-stun-canterbury-bankstown-25-14-at-suncorp-stadium/story-fn2mcuj6-1226353416341

[c4ught]

A Formula 1 bet where we can root for the whole paddock! Paddy Power 5/6 20 or more finishers in the Spanish Grand Prix.

A first corner pile up seems unlikely given the run off area on the outside of the 1st corner. Reliability of the cars appears to be good although some teams will have new parts on this Grand Prix they shouldnt result in mechanical failure.

The average for the first four races = 20.75 which includes the first race where only 16 finished.
The average for the last 23 races = 19.95 and this includes any wet races where collisions/spins odds are increased.
The average for the last 6 spanish races though is 16.33! This obviously includes the days where cars were not as reliable.

Anyone else have any views?

[FUN4FRASER]

Tony

If you can get on the 5/6 draw no bet for Stevenage to win   tonight at Ladbrokes get the max bet on (not sure what your limits are) £180 to win £150  or £120 to win £100

Need to get on asap though as the price will go.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-one/stevenage-v-sheffield-utd/draw-no-bet

The price is still there at the time of this post.

[The Camel]

Tony

If you can get on the 5/6 draw no bet for Stevenage to win   tonight at Ladbrokes get the max bet on (not sure what your limits are) £180 to win £150  or £120 to win £100

Need to get on asap though as the price will go.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-one/stevenage-v-sheffield-utd/draw-no-bet

The price is still there at the time of this post.

When I first looked at this match, my inclination was to try and get with Stevenage.

But, I just couldn't play at 5/6. Just seems the whole world and his wife want to get with the home team and the price is too skinny.

Indeed, if it gets any shorter, I'm going to go the other way.

For all their recent troubles, United are intrinsically a better team than Stevenage. 17 more points this season!

[Skippy]

A Formula 1 bet where we can root for the whole paddock! Paddy Power 5/6 20 or more finishers in the Spanish Grand Prix.

A first corner pile up seems unlikely given the run off area on the outside of the 1st corner. Reliability of the cars appears to be good although some teams will have new parts on this Grand Prix they shouldnt result in mechanical failure.

The average for the first four races = 20.75 which includes the first race where only 16 finished.
The average for the last 23 races = 19.95 and this includes any wet races where collisions/spins odds are increased.
The average for the last 6 spanish races though is 16.33! This obviously includes the days where cars were not as reliable.

Anyone else have any views?

Seems to me you are getting 5/6 on a coin flip. What price do you think it should be? Or alternatively, what's your line where you think it's 50/50 either way?

Cars have been mega reliable for at least 4 years.

I'm loathe to suggest bets on this thread for fear of egg-on-face, but my big bet on F1 is to lay Vettel at 3.0ish on Betfair to win the drivers title. I'm not saying he can't win it, but so far there have been 4 races with 4 completely different results, and I just don't think anyone is 2/1 to win the title. I'd make Vettel 4.0 to 4.5. I'm planning on trading out if the price moves, meaning you haven't necessarily tied your money up until October.

[Karabiner]

I couldn't resist taking a few quid back on Poults @ 8.2 on BF.

He's still a good winner for me but there's a long way to go.

[tikay]

Tony

If you can get on the 5/6 draw no bet for Stevenage to win   tonight at Ladbrokes get the max bet on (not sure what your limits are) £180 to win £150  or £120 to win £100

Need to get on asap though as the price will go.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-one/stevenage-v-sheffield-utd/draw-no-bet

The price is still there at the time of this post.

Thanks Fraser.

As a complete know-nothing on football, ther price looks very skinny to me - what is your reasoning for fancying it so strongly, please?

Ther 5/6 has gone, by the way, but 4/5 is still available in several spots.

If - IF - we did this, it would not be a maximum (unless your reasoning is very strong), we VERY rarely do the Max, probably less than 10 "max" bets since February 1st, when we began.

I'm also being a tinsy bit cautious with our money right now, as we are the fat end of £500 adrift this month, & I'm keen to wipe that out. It'd be an easy "yes" if we were £500 ahead. 

Anyway, you should save your run-good for Sunday.......

Come back to me, please, I'm keen to hear your reasoning, & find an excuse to have a bet.

[tikay]

I couldn't resist taking a few quid back on Poults @ 8.2 on BF.

He's still a good winner for me but there's a long way to go.

Don't blame you one bit, Ralph, I agree, it'd be a miracle if he could negotiate the remaining three days without a few mishaps.

Given my thread bets, what would you do if you had my position on Poulter? (Amounts, etc). It'd be rude to ask how much you have saved for, but I'd like a clue to your thought process. You know, nit to nit, like.