Tips for Tikay

[doubleup]

Morning Tony

Spain are 3 -1 at Hills for the Euros 2012

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/euro-2012/winner

Put £200 on them to create a position for yourself as they are  actually trading at 3.85 on Betfair and you will be able to trade back with( at least ) a small profit later

3-1 = 3.85 after commission

[Doobs]

Morning Tony

Spain are 3 -1 at Hills for the Euros 2012

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/euro-2012/winner

Put £200 on them to create a position for yourself as they are  actually trading at 3.85 on Betfair and you will be able to trade back with( at least ) a small profit later

3-1 = 3.85 after commission

Beat me to it, and as soon as we trade, it means we have to tie up money for a month or so given our positions are in separate places.  Why isn't the straight arb better? 

[Josedinho]

Others will disagree but I don't mind Spain at 3/1 but (don't tell Camel) but I am/used to be somebody that would lay a bet off just to lock in profit with no real thought as to whether the lay was value at the time.
What would the plan be for the lay? When would do you plan on doing it and what price would you expect to lay it at?

[MANTIS01]

The sun glinted through my window this morning gently announcing the arrival of a special day. Looking outside everything seemed peaceful and somehow right, I sensed an almost holy order about the world. It felt possible people could find love in a hopeless place. One universal shared feeling where my love is your love and your love is my love. I found the experience quite uplifting tbh and it will always be on my mind.  Then as if by guided by some greater force I found myself logging onto Twitter.

Well we've had many rivers to cross on this journey my friends so it seems like fate itself is driving Vince Kidd to sing this beautiful Jimmy Cliff classic in the Final tonight.

Big shock in the semi final last week with both short priced favourites crashing out. But strong image wins the race in these comps and all those horses are hitting the front now. Quite worried about Bo and Tyler on that front. Importantly all acts will sing a duet with their mentor and being paired with Jessie J is a huge advantage for us. Bo sings with someone less famous than her and Leanne will get Tom Jones wheeled on stage. Tyler has Will.I.Am for a strong production but neither can sing so we might actually do this.

I was going to lay Vince last week but one night while asleep he appeared in my dream. He was surrounded by a blinding white light and had the wings of an angel. He gently kissed me on the forehead and pressed a finger to my lips to ease my worry. I love you Vince.

[FUN4FRASER]

Morning Tony

Spain are 3 -1 at Hills for the Euros 2012

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/euro-2012/winner

Put £200 on them to create a position for yourself as they are  actually trading at 3.85 on Betfair and you will be able to trade back with( at least ) a small profit later

3-1 = 3.85 after commission

Beat me to it, and as soon as we trade, it means we have to tie up money for a month or so given our positions are in separate places.  Why isn't the straight arb better? 

I never said anything about immediatley trading and yes I do know 3.85 is similar to 3 - 1 after commision( thank you) and whats wrong with tieing up money for a month ? Jesus you guys   

I was looking to possibly trade after the easier group stage (Croatia,Ireland, Italy ) where they will be a 7-4 shot  (2-1 top)

[doubleup]

Morning Tony

Spain are 3 -1 at Hills for the Euros 2012

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/euro-2012/winner

Put £200 on them to create a position for yourself as they are  actually trading at 3.85 on Betfair and you will be able to trade back with( at least ) a small profit later

3-1 = 3.85 after commission

Beat me to it, and as soon as we trade, it means we have to tie up money for a month or so given our positions are in separate places.  Why isn't the straight arb better? 

I never said anything about immediatley trading and yes I do know 3.85 is similar to 3 - 1 after commision( thank you) and whats wrong with tieing up money for a month ? Jesus you guys   

I was looking to possibly trade after the easier group stage (Croatia,Ireland, Italy ) where they will be a 7-4 shot  (2-1 top)

The 3-1 might be value, but I can't see how any strategy involving trading out on an exchange isn't too costly.

[smashedagain]

The sun glinted through my window this morning gently announcing the arrival of a special day. Looking outside everything seemed peaceful and somehow right, I sensed an almost holy order about the world. It felt possible people could find love in a hopeless place. One universal shared feeling where my love is your love and your love is my love. I found the experience quite uplifting tbh and it will always be on my mind.  Then as if by guided by some greater force I found myself logging onto Twitter.

Well we've had many rivers to cross on this journey my friends so it seems like fate itself is driving Vince Kidd to sing this beautiful Jimmy Cliff classic in the Final tonight.

Big shock in the semi final last week with both short priced favourites crashing out. But strong image wins the race in these comps and all those horses are hitting the front now. Quite worried about Bo and Tyler on that front. Importantly all acts will sing a duet with their mentor and being paired with Jessie J is a huge advantage for us. Bo sings with someone less famous than her and Leanne will get Tom Jones wheeled on stage. Tyler has Will.I.Am for a strong production but neither can sing so we might actually do this.

I was going to lay Vince last week but one night while asleep he appeared in my dream. He was surrounded by a blinding white light and had the wings of an angel. He gently kissed me on the forehead and pressed a finger to my lips to ease my worry. I love you Vince.

Another classic post from Mantis. How can he not win after this.

[Doobs]

Morning Tony

Spain are 3 -1 at Hills for the Euros 2012

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/euro-2012/winner

Put £200 on them to create a position for yourself as they are  actually trading at 3.85 on Betfair and you will be able to trade back with( at least ) a small profit later

3-1 = 3.85 after commission

Beat me to it, and as soon as we trade, it means we have to tie up money for a month or so given our positions are in separate places.  Why isn't the straight arb better? 

I never said anything about immediatley trading and yes I do know 3.85 is similar to 3 - 1 after commision( thank you) and whats wrong with tieing up money for a month ? Jesus you guys   

I was looking to possibly trade after the easier group stage (Croatia,Ireland, Italy ) where they will be a 7-4 shot  (2-1 top)

It isn't you who is betting though.  Figure we are looking at tying up a third of the bank if we lay 200 at .  Means we can't do something like this very often or we lose our bank. 

Was thinking surely we should be laying to take advantage of the hills arbers but just checked and their is 50k available ahead of us! 

[doubleup]

However, if anyone can find us the winner of Saturday's "Epsom Dash", I'll give them a big kiss. The current co-favs (just the 5 of them) are all around 12/1.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/epsom-dash

I'd be intersted to hear from the Elders & Betters what view they take on these huge field sprints, including the EW line. 

This particular race (possibly because of the unusual track) quite often has fewer than 16 runners, so it isn't quite the same as the other huge field handicaps.  So I would assume that a lot of these are going to withdraw.

If I'm going to bet on any of these there has to be an angle that allows me to narrow down the field to a manageable amount.  Usually something like a draw bias or late going change.

On this particular race although the horse drawn 1 has won the race, the general bias is towards the higher numbers (particularly in softish going).

In the last 15 runnings, 25 horses that have won their previous race have taken part and none have won, 10 of the 15 being won by horses who were 2nd to 5th in their previous outing.

The horses in the 1st 5 of the betting have won 10 of the last 15 with 3rd favourite winning 4 and being most profitable.

So probably best to wait until after the draw to make your choice.

Maximum field of 20 and Skybet and Paddy are going 5 places ew on this, but their prices of the favoured horses aren't the best.  

[redarmi]

Morning Tony

Spain are 3 -1 at Hills for the Euros 2012

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/euro-2012/winner

Put £200 on them to create a position for yourself as they are  actually trading at 3.85 on Betfair and you will be able to trade back with( at least ) a small profit later

3-1 = 3.85 after commission

Beat me to it, and as soon as we trade, it means we have to tie up money for a month or so given our positions are in separate places.  Why isn't the straight arb better? 

I never said anything about immediatley trading and yes I do know 3.85 is similar to 3 - 1 after commision( thank you) and whats wrong with tieing up money for a month ? Jesus you guys   

I was looking to possibly trade after the easier group stage (Croatia,Ireland, Italy ) where they will be a 7-4 shot  (2-1 top)

You can have evens with me that they get through the groups stages and are 2/1 or shorter at that point.

[redarmi]

I never said anything about immediatley trading and yes I do know 3.85 is similar to 3 - 1 after commision( thank you) and whats wrong with tieing up money for a month ? Jesus you guys   

I was looking to possibly trade after the easier group stage (Croatia,Ireland, Italy ) where they will be a 7-4 shot  (2-1 top)

It is a slightly pedantic point but tieing money up for a month is bad because it reduces your bankroll by almost a third in that period so all bets in that period have to be reduced by a third if you are going to follow proper bankroll management.  So if you have a 10% ROI and a normal turnover of £6k and profit of £600 in the month you have tied up the money you can only turn over £4k and make £400.  Even if you make have £200 @ 3/1 and lay £200 later at 2/1 you only have an expected profit of £66.66 (£200/3 because you only realise the profit if Spain actually win the thing) so you end up losing £134.34 in expected value.

[tikay]

Will comment on that Spain "lay" later, but fair to say, I'm "not yet very competent" on working Betfair.

I use it, but for lays & the like, Mere or Bobby normally "supervise" me, as I'm a bit green. As opposed to greened out. As such, I can't react as fast as I need to when situations arise in a fast moving market, as I need to exchange e-Mails with Mere, or Bobby.

Red's comment.....

So if you have a 10% ROI and a normal turnover of £6k and profit of £600 in the month

In April, we turned over very close to that, & we turned over slightly more in May. In April we made a profit of some 20% (all figures approx) & in may we lost 15%.

So those numbers are, coincidentally (?) actually quite close, & pertinent.

Later....

[tikay]

Our Wales Open golf bets are doing much better.

Coetzee is level par after 8, Siem is 2 under after 12, & Manassero is 2 under after 16.

We might make a small profit on that trio of bets yet. 

[The Camel]

I think we should lay Astrology at 7/1 for £50 and keep the place part of the bet.

[The Camel]

Meh, 8/1 now.

Got to be on the ball young man.