Tips for Tikay

[JaffaCake]

As Vic said, lay of Miami has taken a turn for the better. They're 3-2 down, first to 4, in the Conf Finals v Boston. They lost at home last night and therefore lost home court advantage, need to win in Boston on Thurs and force a game 7 at home and win that just to make the Finals. There they will probs face OKC, who seem to have gone from strength to strength, were 2-0 down to San Antonio in the West Finals, with the Spurs on a 20-game winning streak, now they're beaten them three times in a row, including away in game 5, and now have a home game 6 tonight to finish it off Friday. Even if Miami make it I wouldn't make them faves in the Finals, so we still got a lot going for us in that lay

[a.sparrow]

Euro12.

We need to be careful in betting against ourselves, though if the prices are right, in some instances it may be worthwhile cover.

Most of the action will be in singles on games, but here is our sub-market position so far.

Winner/Top Scorer.

France/Benzema, £5 @ 150/1. Josedinho.

Top Russian Scorer, Kerzhakof, £50 @ 6/1, Horneris.

Top Arsenal Goalscorer, RVP, £110 @ 8/11, Fraser.

Top Goalscorer, Llorente, £10 @ 16/1, KillerKilsby.

Top Goalscorer, Gomez, £20 @ 8/1, doubleup.

Top Denmark Goalscorer, Agger, £20 @ 16/1, horsey.

Top French Goalscorer, Benzema, £25 @ 4/1, Josedinho

Group C Qualifier, Croatia, £80 @ 7/4, Fraser.

TOTAL INVESTED SO FAR = £320.

The France/benzema double is now best priced at 40/1!

[tikay]

Why do you no longer bet with skybet Tony, has your account been restricted/closed?

I was up in the Office a few weeks ago, & I was chatting with the guy who runs the thing, & so it seemed a good moment to explain that I was betting a bit these days, & from time to time I had bet with them.

He felt that, possibly, even though I am not a Direct Employee, it might not be well-viewed by some, so I just said "well in that case I won't". Just seemed right, it's not a big problem, & I dont want to be embarrassing either them or myself for a fraction of a point on the odd bet once or twice a month.

Really, it was a bit daft of me not to realise that in the first place.   

[tikay]

Euro12.

We need to be careful in betting against ourselves, though if the prices are right, in some instances it may be worthwhile cover.

Most of the action will be in singles on games, but here is our sub-market position so far.

Winner/Top Scorer.

France/Benzema, £5 @ 150/1. Josedinho.

Top Russian Scorer, Kerzhakof, £50 @ 6/1, Horneris.

Top Arsenal Goalscorer, RVP, £110 @ 8/11, Fraser.

Top Goalscorer, Llorente, £10 @ 16/1, KillerKilsby.

Top Goalscorer, Gomez, £20 @ 8/1, doubleup.

Top Denmark Goalscorer, Agger, £20 @ 16/1, horsey.

Top French Goalscorer, Benzema, £25 @ 4/1, Josedinho

Group C Qualifier, Croatia, £80 @ 7/4, Fraser.

TOTAL INVESTED SO FAR = £320.

The France/benzema double is now best priced at 40/1!

Oh wow, we love Jose!

[tikay]

As Vic said, lay of Miami has taken a turn for the better. They're 3-2 down, first to 4, in the Conf Finals v Boston. They lost at home last night and therefore lost home court advantage, need to win in Boston on Thurs and force a game 7 at home and win that just to make the Finals. There they will probs face OKC, who seem to have gone from strength to strength, were 2-0 down to San Antonio in the West Finals, with the Spurs on a 20-game winning streak, now they're beaten them three times in a row, including away in game 5, and now have a home game 6 tonight to finish it off Friday. Even if Miami make it I wouldn't make them faves in the Finals, so we still got a lot going for us in that lay

In that case, we love Jaffa too.

So it COULD be all over tomorrow night/Friday morning?

[TightEnd]

http://sports.bodog.co.uk/formula-1/f1-grand-prix.htm?eventId=264922&marketId=-1

Canadian Grand Prix

Outright markets very unpredictable, six different winners of six different races and we have done our cobblers on F1. I have advocated avoiding F1 winning driver/Pole/fastest lap bets as the differing tyre degradation across teams in the various races makes predictions so tricky this year

However, Bodog, if you have an account there, have a rick on the safety car market

They price it "Yes 9/4 No 1/3"

Every other market participant prices it the other way

http://www.oddschecker.com/motor-sport/formula-one/canadian-grand-prix/safety-car

Why?

http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2012/06/how-the-f1-teams-will-approach-the-canadian-grand-prix/

"Chance of a safety car

The chances of a safety car at Montreal are very high at 67%. There is an average of 0.8 safety cars per race. Seven of the last ten Canadian Grands Prix have featured a safety car.

This is because, with the track lined with walls and several blind corners, there are frequent accidents and the conditions for the marshals when clearing an accident are dangerous."

If Bodog are REALLY 9/4 a safety car, this is a Max bet

Making it even more attractive, is the poor weather forecast for the weekend, It's slippery when wet m'lud.

[Chompy]

^^^ Diff gravy

[tikay]

http://sports.bodog.co.uk/formula-1/f1-grand-prix.htm?eventId=264922&marketId=-1

Canadian Grand Prix

Outright markets very unpredictable, six different winners of six different races and we have done our cobblers on F1. I have advocated avoiding F1 winning driver/Pole/fastest lap bets as the differing tyre degradation across teams in the various races makes predictions so tricky this year

However, Bodog, if you have an account there, have a rick on the safety car market

They price it "Yes 9/4 No 1/3"

Every other market participant prices it the other way

http://www.oddschecker.com/motor-sport/formula-one/canadian-grand-prix/safety-car

Why?

http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2012/06/how-the-f1-teams-will-approach-the-canadian-grand-prix/

"Chance of a safety car

The chances of a safety car at Montreal are very high at 67%. There is an average of 0.8 safety cars per race. Seven of the last ten Canadian Grands Prix have featured a safety car.

This is because, with the track lined with walls and several blind corners, there are frequent accidents and the conditions for the marshals when clearing an accident are dangerous."

If Bodog are REALLY 9/4 a safety car, this is a Max bet

Making it even more attractive, is the poor weather forecast for the weekend, It's slippery when wet m'lud.

Not any more, they go 39/20 NO Safety Car, 7/20 Safety Car.

I would only have bet it small though, if at all. If it was a clear pricing rick - & it was - then we end up with not only the bet voided, but they then restrict me, too. This happened to me once already, & I just don't think it's worth the risk, we can only lose.

Great spot though, you don't miss much, do you?!

[Karabiner]

Why do you no longer bet with skybet Tony, has your account been restricted/closed?

I was up in the Office a few weeks ago, & I was chatting with the guy who runs the thing, & so it seemed a good moment to explain that I was betting a bit these days, & from time to time I had bet with them.

He felt that, possibly, even though I am not a Direct Employee, it might not be well-viewed by some, so I just said "well in that case I won't". Just seemed right, it's not a big problem, & I dont want to be embarrassing either them or myself for a fraction of a point on the odd bet once or twice a month.

Really, it was a bit daft of me not to realise that in the first place.   

How disappointing, I was so hoping all of those shrewd bets had seen your account closed.

[tikay]

Why do you no longer bet with skybet Tony, has your account been restricted/closed?

I was up in the Office a few weeks ago, & I was chatting with the guy who runs the thing, & so it seemed a good moment to explain that I was betting a bit these days, & from time to time I had bet with them.

He felt that, possibly, even though I am not a Direct Employee, it might not be well-viewed by some, so I just said "well in that case I won't". Just seemed right, it's not a big problem, & I dont want to be embarrassing either them or myself for a fraction of a point on the odd bet once or twice a month.

Really, it was a bit daft of me not to realise that in the first place.   

How disappointing, I was so hoping all of those shrewd bets had seen your account closed.

I can but wish!

The only Account I've had "restricted" is Bet365. It is, in effect, closed, they only allow me about £4 a time. They may just as well close it.

[FUN4FRASER]

Why do you no longer bet with skybet Tony, has your account been restricted/closed?

I was up in the Office a few weeks ago, & I was chatting with the guy who runs the thing, & so it seemed a good moment to explain that I was betting a bit these days, & from time to time I had bet with them.

He felt that, possibly, even though I am not a Direct Employee, it might not be well-viewed by some, so I just said "well in that case I won't". Just seemed right, it's not a big problem, & I dont want to be embarrassing either them or myself for a fraction of a point on the odd bet once or twice a month.

Really, it was a bit daft of me not to realise that in the first place.   

How disappointing, I was so hoping all of those shrewd bets had seen your account closed.

I can but wish!

The only Account I've had "restricted" is Bet365. It is, in effect, closed, they only allow me about £4 a time. They may just as well close it.

I get the same with your employer   

[Girgy85]

If a mate was offering you 25/1 on england to win the euros would you snap his hand off and how much would you risk. Min bet £20

[Karabiner]

Why do you no longer bet with skybet Tony, has your account been restricted/closed?

I was up in the Office a few weeks ago, & I was chatting with the guy who runs the thing, & so it seemed a good moment to explain that I was betting a bit these days, & from time to time I had bet with them.

He felt that, possibly, even though I am not a Direct Employee, it might not be well-viewed by some, so I just said "well in that case I won't". Just seemed right, it's not a big problem, & I dont want to be embarrassing either them or myself for a fraction of a point on the odd bet once or twice a month.

Really, it was a bit daft of me not to realise that in the first place.   

How disappointing, I was so hoping all of those shrewd bets had seen your account closed.

I can but wish!

The only Account I've had "restricted" is Bet365. It is, in effect, closed, they only allow me about £4 a time. They may just as well close it.

I get the same with your employer   

I can't even get that much on, but 365 are fine with me.

[geordieneil]

Tweet of the Month Update, as at 7pm, Tuesday June 5th

Unashamedly stolen from Twitter.



Andy Carroll is 33/1 for Top Goalscorer in Euro 2012. For those of you who don't understand betting - if you bet £10, you will lose £10

fyp

[The Camel]

If a mate was offering you 25/1 on england to win the euros would you snap his hand off and how much would you risk. Min bet £20

Bet as much as he'll take!

Then layoff on Betfair obv.