Tips for Tikay

[claypole]

Bumping This...for a Tikay & Blonde reminder

Quote from: Horneris on June 08, 2012, 01:56:07 PM
Seems a very risky proposition to me, what price do you make Carroll to start? He is outsider on Betfair and twitter this morning was raving about Welbeck's finishing in training.

Let me try and answer in full...

4 strikers  Rooney,Carroll.Defoe ,Wellbeck

Rooney suspended for 2 matches and Defoe not 1st choice and obviously not in best frame of mind after losing his father

If you look on the betfair "to start" market there is no liquidity at all so you cant use this as guidance  (in fact people are wanting to back Carroll at 2.5...and welbeck only has money for him at 3.25 which would indicate Carroll starts )

http://sports.betfair.com/football/market?id=1.105837845&exp=e

and the same can be said of betfairs top english goalscorer market which has Carroll and welbeck near on price but again not enough money to use for guidance

http://sports.betfair.com/football/market?id=1.105472940&exp=e

My man reckons it will be Carroll and the shirt No9 would indicate the same...but regardless even if he does come off the bench 15 -2 is still plenty big enough and represents a decent value bet

I would make it as high as 75/25% Carroll over Wellbeck  (no bets before you ask just my opinion) If so Carroll is defintely  too big at 15-2

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/euro-2012/england-euro-2012-specials/top-goalscorer

I have had a decent bet on Carroll at 15/2 - I have also heard that Carroll will start via pretty good source at Liverpool, sort of as good a source as it gets. All aboard the FUN4FRASER gravy train

[FUN4FRASER]

Bumping This...for a Tikay & Blonde reminder

Quote from: Horneris on June 08, 2012, 01:56:07 PM
Seems a very risky proposition to me, what price do you make Carroll to start? He is outsider on Betfair and twitter this morning was raving about Welbeck's finishing in training.

Let me try and answer in full...

4 strikers  Rooney,Carroll.Defoe ,Wellbeck

Rooney suspended for 2 matches and Defoe not 1st choice and obviously not in best frame of mind after losing his father

If you look on the betfair "to start" market there is no liquidity at all so you cant use this as guidance  (in fact people are wanting to back Carroll at 2.5...and welbeck only has money for him at 3.25 which would indicate Carroll starts )

http://sports.betfair.com/football/market?id=1.105837845&exp=e

and the same can be said of betfairs top english goalscorer market which has Carroll and welbeck near on price but again not enough money to use for guidance

http://sports.betfair.com/football/market?id=1.105472940&exp=e

My man reckons it will be Carroll and the shirt No9 would indicate the same...but regardless even if he does come off the bench 15 -2 is still plenty big enough and represents a decent value bet

I would make it as high as 75/25% Carroll over Wellbeck  (no bets before you ask just my opinion) If so Carroll is defintely  too big at 15-2

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/euro-2012/england-euro-2012-specials/top-goalscorer

I have had a decent bet on Carroll at 15/2 - I have also heard that Carroll will start via pretty good source at Liverpool, sort of as good a source as it gets. All aboard the FUN4FRASER gravy train

Yes me too Shaun so im surprised at the reports suggesting Welbeck

[Josedinho]

Cheers guys. Might pull the trigger myself then

[pokerfan]

Hart said in the article anyone who wanted to go could go.

[MereNovice]

Cricket starting at 11am.

David Lloyd: "England could win this with something to spare"!

[tikay]

Daily Update as @ Noon, Saturday 9th June

LOSS on month = £326

Unsettled Bets = £912.50


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&pli=1#gid=8

[tikay]

Daily Update as @ Noon, Saturday 9th June

Time problems today, so brief, ish.

Much fun in the opening Euro game, but somehow we got out of it, & ended up, I think, losing exactly £1. I'll take that! We could so easily have done £100 on the game.

Our Rusky "leading goalscorer" somehow missed SEVEN attempts, & ended up with nada. Not dead yet, but not very well.

In golf, Rory took the lead, & after a lovely debate, we greened. Difficult to know if we greened correctly, but we have a profit now whatever happens, so I'll take that.

The "no hole in one" bet continues to be alive & healthy, we have dodged over 1,000 bullets so far, with another 600 or 700 still to avoid........

Unfortunately, due to circumstances beyond my control, I was unable to get redarmi's splendid Antigua bet on. Bugger, great bet that. I also missed Mere's Rugby coup. Frustrasting this, sometimes.

[tikay]

What's coming up?

I still have today's action to place, & will do so shortly.

No hole in one, & Rory, both continue today.

The Test Match, 2 days in, has yet to even start. We need to win this. In 3 days tops. Bloody weather......

Euro 12

Today's games are....

Holland - Denmark 5pm

Germany Portugal - 19.45

If there are any Euro 12 "match" bets on those 2 games for today, I'll deal with them later this afternoon, when I get to the blonde Bash, mid afternoon.

Of our existing Euro12 Bets in action today, we have leading goalscorers  in Gomez for Germany, Agger for Denmark, & I assume RVP (Arsenal) for Holland.

I have no idea if our  Miami Heat lay is still in action. Where are our NBA heroes?

[tikay]

I like this so much have ccp'd frm another thread:

Liking Huntelaar for top scorer. 12 goals in 8 games in qualifying and at 18/1...whilst RVP (6 in 6) is 10/1. Huntelaar is a man with a point to prove and hasn't had the best of luck in the past and:

1. Top scorer in Bundesliga this season with 29 goals...so he is used to playing German opposition (and scoring).
2. Danes will be similar (easier) than the Germans for him to batter through.
3. Portugal??

Small problem with this Lee, we are already on a few, & I need to look at them all as a unit to ensure we are not killing our own value.

Views anyone?

[tikay]

I can't say I'm really a fan thus far but Word has it that Andy Carroll is going to get the starting spot over Danny Welbeck (Carroll has the No 9 shirt).

If he does start and performs well he could keep his place in a 2 man attack even when Rooney returns.

He is a a very generous price for top English goalscorer for a medium investment but only if you can get the 15-2 on offer at Paddy Power

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/euro-2012/england-euro-2012-specials/top-goalscorer

On a similar theme Spains widely accepted 3rd choice striker Negredo may be a value bet. Sid Lowe reckons he might start on Sunday, he thinks he's ahead of the misfiring Llorente and that its between Torres and Negredo. Even if he doesn't start on Sunday he will get an opportunity if Spain struggle for goals against the Italians.

I've backed him ew at 50/1 for the tourney and at 10/1 for top Spanish goalscorer. Obv this is a bit of a punt and you have Llorente already but a small interest may be worthwhile.

I'll look at this later today, thanks.

Any views, anyone?

[77dave]

50-1 WI not a bad start for them having been put in, but no Chanderpaul in the WI lineup

Oh and its game 7 Boston v Miami tonight.

[tikay]

The Andy Carroll bet.

Have not forgotten this, & plenty of good debate.

Think we are leasning towards doing it, though not for big money, maybe £40 or £50. I know we may lose a tad of value by waiting, but we have until Monday, & my head is spinning rigght now, so I'll do whatever is needed over the weekend.

[tikay]

Lee Westwood to beat Ross fisher tomorrow 4/5

Ross Fisher when in top 10 (but not leading) has broken 70 just once in his last 20. Westwood is different class anyway even though he might be a bit conservative.

Sandy

Sorry Sandy, it looks like I m too late for this. Sure sign it will win - thanks, & good luck you.

[tikay]

Can anyone tell me how many minutes went up on the board in both todays games at half time ? Was in 2 in both ?

Sandy

Didn't notice in first game but this one was definitely two.

Thanks. On tomorrow @ 4/1 for 2 mins 1st half in both games.

Also on 4 + mins 2nd half 3/1 Den and 11/4 Ger.

Singles and doubles for me.

Not that solid stats wise (only 2 games here) but prices are decent.

Sandy

Any further thougts on this?

[tikay]

Have I missed anything else?

Will be back online later this afternoon, deffo before the first Euro12 game starts.