Tips for Tikay

[FUN4FRASER]

One Time    

I'm finding it hard to believe that you've not already used your quota of those at DTD.  

Now Now  Hehe  

God Doesnt half love a sweat

Arsenal player Bendtner has 2 goals now so RVP has a real job on against the Germans tonight...still happy with the overall result so not complaining

[redarmi]

Out of interest Fraser having watched that game would you have the same bet at the same price if the game was played again tomorrow?

[FUN4FRASER]

Out of interest Fraser having watched that game would you have the same bet at the same price if the game was played again tomorrow?

I know you were watching froma Danish perspective and believe me when I say... I can go with big prices as Ive backed Russia @20-1 for this and was with Denmark when they won at 100-1 in 1992 only £10 each way but 20 years ago was a decent bet  (get in John Jensen and Lars Elstrup) but the answer to your question is yes I would have the bet again as Portugal were cruising until  Bendtner made it 2-1.

I can take it you wouldnt ? hence the question.

[smashedagain]

Smashedagain for England manager

These groups all look tight as a nuns chuff and can see goal difference playing its part in determining the quarter final places for some. Now if I was Mike Bassett I would not  be looking forward to a very tricky game against the host nation and that man Shevchenko if we need to go looking for a win. The nut result would be if both sides needed a draw in the 3rd game to send the garlic munchers packing as if a draw is needed by both sides to ensure qualification then as sure as eggs are eggs a draw is what we will see.

With this in mind I would want to make the best of the opportunity we have in the Sweden game. I would inspire the boys with my pep talk and remind them that we are England and if we are to go out in the quarter finals as usual we have to give these Swedes one hell of a beating. I think if we get the first goal we may see the Swedish players heads drop at the thought of being sent home. Getting the 2nd one should not be too hard then we can shut up shop park the bus (modern manager modern tactics ). I have looked on oddschecker and seen that

England win by 2 goals is 11/2 with ladbrokes

I would love to be flamed by those who are actually in the know and would only expect Tikay to go with the tip if confident too

[redarmi]

I can take it you wouldnt ? hence the question.

No not at all.  Before the game I didn't really have a view and it was only during this game it occurred to me that I thought Denmark looked a decent outfit but after the game I wasn't sure what to take out of it so I just wondered if Portugal had lived up to how you expected them to play etc.  I never particularly liked Denmark to win the game.  I think the reason they are value is that those that qualify from this group have a very good draw and they will be hard to beat in a knockout format and Germany will probably rest players if they win tonight although in hindsight baking the Danes at 50/1+ if the Germans go a couple up is probably better than taking the price now.

[Xpressman]

Hi All

All Germany H T  F T For me  4.8  £30


And Phillip Lahm  to receive Card  4.0 Betfair   £15

Both for me tonight

[FUN4FRASER]

I can take it you wouldnt ? hence the question.

No not at all.  Before the game I didn't really have a view and it was only during this game it occurred to me that I thought Denmark looked a decent outfit but after the game I wasn't sure what to take out of it so I just wondered if Portugal had lived up to how you expected them to play etc.  I never particularly liked Denmark to win the game.  I think the reason they are value is that those that qualify from this group have a very good draw and they will be hard to beat in a knockout format and Germany will probably rest players if they win tonight although in hindsight baking the Danes at 50/1+ if the Germans go a couple up is probably better than taking the price now.

I cant fault your logic...in fact very good ...Denmark still have  chances to qualify from a very tight group in the last game against Germay  ? remember The Danes turned them over in the 1992 final 

[redarmi]

Smashedagain for England manager

These groups all look tight as a nuns chuff and can see goal difference playing its part in determining the quarter final places for some. Now if I was Mike Bassett I would not  be looking forward to a very tricky game against the host nation and that man Shevchenko if we need to go looking for a win. The nut result would be if both sides needed a draw in the 3rd game to send the garlic munchers packing as if a draw is needed by both sides to ensure qualification then as sure as eggs are eggs a draw is what we will see.

With this in mind I would want to make the best of the opportunity we have in the Sweden game. I would inspire the boys with my pep talk and remind them that we are England and if we are to go out in the quarter finals as usual we have to give these Swedes one hell of a beating. I think if we get the first goal we may see the Swedish players heads drop at the thought of being sent home. Getting the 2nd one should not be too hard then we can shut up shop.  I have looked on oddschecker and seen that

England win by 2 goals is 11/2 with ladbrokes

I would love to be flamed by those who are actually in the know and would only expect Tikay to go with the tip if confident too

These kind of markets really are mathematically derived these days Jase so it basically comes down to whether or not you think England at 6/5 or so are value.  The derivative markets have larger margins so in 99 cases out of 100 you are better off from an EV perspective just betting the reagular 12x price.  To illustrate I ran the numbers on this game and for your bet to have a 1.5% edge England would have to be true even money shots but of course if they are true even money shots then betting them at 6/5 would give you a 10% edge (50*2.2 =110) so you would be much better just backing them to win.

[smashedagain]

Smashedagain for England manager

These groups all look tight as a nuns chuff and can see goal difference playing its part in determining the quarter final places for some. Now if I was Mike Bassett I would not  be looking forward to a very tricky game against the host nation and that man Shevchenko if we need to go looking for a win. The nut result would be if both sides needed a draw in the 3rd game to send the garlic munchers packing as if a draw is needed by both sides to ensure qualification then as sure as eggs are eggs a draw is what we will see.

With this in mind I would want to make the best of the opportunity we have in the Sweden game. I would inspire the boys with my pep talk and remind them that we are England and if we are to go out in the quarter finals as usual we have to give these Swedes one hell of a beating. I think if we get the first goal we may see the Swedish players heads drop at the thought of being sent home. Getting the 2nd one should not be too hard then we can shut up shop.  I have looked on oddschecker and seen that

England win by 2 goals is 11/2 with ladbrokes

I would love to be flamed by those who are actually in the know and would only expect Tikay to go with the tip if confident too

These kind of markets really are mathematically derived these days Jase so it basically comes down to whether or not you think England at 6/5 or so are value.  The derivative markets have larger margins so in 99 cases out of 100 you are better off from an EV perspective just betting the reagular 12x price.  To illustrate I ran the numbers on this game and for your bet to have a 1.5% edge England would have to be true even money shots but of course if they are true even money shots then betting them at 6/5 would give you a 10% edge (50*2.2 =110) so you would be much better just backing them to win.

Cheers mate. That's the sort of response I was looking for and shows the difference between the bookies favourites like me and those who have the knowledge to hurt them.
But we don't actually think our shower of shite are gonna win tho do we lol

[tikay]

Gomezzzzzzzzzzz

[FUN4FRASER]

Smashedagain for England manager

These groups all look tight as a nuns chuff and can see goal difference playing its part in determining the quarter final places for some. Now if I was Mike Bassett I would not  be looking forward to a very tricky game against the host nation and that man Shevchenko if we need to go looking for a win. The nut result would be if both sides needed a draw in the 3rd game to send the garlic munchers packing as if a draw is needed by both sides to ensure qualification then as sure as eggs are eggs a draw is what we will see.

With this in mind I would want to make the best of the opportunity we have in the Sweden game. I would inspire the boys with my pep talk and remind them that we are England and if we are to go out in the quarter finals as usual we have to give these Swedes one hell of a beating. I think if we get the first goal we may see the Swedish players heads drop at the thought of being sent home. Getting the 2nd one should not be too hard then we can shut up shop.  I have looked on oddschecker and seen that

England win by 2 goals is 11/2 with ladbrokes

I would love to be flamed by those who are actually in the know and would only expect Tikay to go with the tip if confident too

These kind of markets really are mathematically derived these days Jase so it basically comes down to whether or not you think England at 6/5 or so are value.  The derivative markets have larger margins so in 99 cases out of 100 you are better off from an EV perspective just betting the reagular 12x price.  To illustrate I ran the numbers on this game and for your bet to have a 1.5% edge England would have to be true even money shots but of course if they are true even money shots then betting them at 6/5 would give you a 10% edge (50*2.2 =110) so you would be much better just backing them to win.

Cheers mate. That's the sort of response I was looking for and shows the difference between the bookies favourites like me and those who have the knowledge to hurt them.
But we don't actually think our shower of shite are gonna win tho do we lol

Id feel more comfortable of scoring 2 goals with 2 strikers up front...Start withThe Geordie   

[tikay]

Gomezzzzzzzzzzz

[Xpressman]

Gomezzzzzzzzzzz

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

[Karabiner]

Gomezzzzzzzzzzz

You're starting to sound like the old Liverpoo chant of yesteryear:

clap clap clapclapclap clapclapclap Dallgleish, repeat etc.

[redarmi]

Think Holland will blowup after this.  Portugal at 6/4 or bigger will be a very decent bet imo.  They are currently 15/8 on BF