Tips for Tikay

[MereNovice]

A little more constructive please guys, & please remember Mere is doing this as a favour to me, & spending a huge amount of time on it, on our behalf.

Thanks.

Apologies. Thread is still a must read.

Not results orientated thought, thread is betting on anything that moves.

Thanks Scotty.

How do you suggest we adopt, or change, then?

I don't think we are doing much different, maybe we are, but I can't see it.

I said all along we would struggle during the Premiership off season.

Euro12 has not gone well for us, but I think the bets we made all met the thread criteria.

The thread is the sum product of ALL OF US.

For sure, if I were still running it, instead of being away in Vegas, we'd have lost more than we have under Mere's stewardship.

Let's keep the stuff coming, see good reasoning & debate, for & against, & then either Mere or I take responsibility, 100%, for "accepted" bets.

Not easy shoes to wear, believe me, & it takes an awful lot of time to monitor, place bets, update the Spready, & do Daily Updates.

Come on, let's keep having a bit of fun, & try to do better. Together.

I feel a little more inclined to comment after tonight's results.

All comments are welcome (please keep them coming) and my general opinion is that we're all looking to improve our betting habits.
We have the privilege of input from people with a huge amount of insight into the betting industry. These people contribute their thoughts at no advantage to themselves. I have learned a lot personally.
With regards to betting habits over the last couple of weeks, I can only say that we have made a small profit on new bets and that the frequency of bets has decreased.
As I'm in charge of the spreadsheet I can produce stats to prove any point I choose to make, obviously.  
If we had followed my personal bets for the last couple of weeks we would be laughing but the thread isn't designed for that.
It's all about you - the combined "Blonde Massive".

Personally, I'm very open to tips on non-headline events. I'm sure that it's quite likely that there is a better margin there but if you don't post your tips we aren't going to be able to place bets on them.

I get a lot of fun (and education) out of this thread and I'm sure that will continue.
We need to improve but I don't think that is an unrealistic goal.

I'd like to re-iterate that I take 100% responsibility for all bets placed under my stewardship.

[FUN4FRASER]

We have a 5 way tie win  on Andy Carroll ?

so if we had £100 on at 15-2 that is now a fith £20 at 15-2 =£170 (i think thats right any body  ?)

like putting £100 on a 7-10 shot so a winner

[horseplayer]

thread not so bad again

short termism in gambling is not a good thing either way

[MereNovice]

We have a 5 way tie win  on Andy Carroll ?

so if we had £100 on at 15-2 that is now a fith £20 at 15-2 =£170 (i think thats right any body  ?)

like putting £100 on a 7-10 shot so a winner

It's not been settled yet but we had £40 at 15/2.
I think we make £60 profit.

Nice work.

[bobby1]

That's true Horse but I would still reiterate my fear that the amount of selections made on TV events is just too many. What seems to happen is many people do the work on the televised sports taking place that day, some won't find a bet, some might find something that they might have a small bet on but wouldn't put on here. What then happens is someone fancies something strongly enough to put a bet up.

Of those three camps we are all going to fall into one of them at different times but as far as the thread goes it gets a bet suggested from the ' fancies something strongly enough to put a bet up' a lot.

And the problem is the live events are the markets that are far more solid a big % of the time.

[ACE2M]

My post was not meant as a slight against mere, far from it, but if we are backing the biggest events on that have the biggest liquidity then there is hardly ever any value, without value you may as well flush tikays money down the pan.

Its difficult to diss someones bet as it feels like 'having a go'.

[tikay]

I think Phil makes a good point, and it is something we can guard against, and another thing we can learn from.

[MereNovice]

My post was not meant as a slight against mere, far from it, but if we are backing the biggest events on that have the biggest liquidity then there is hardly ever any value, without value you may as well flush tikays money down the pan.

Its difficult to diss someones bet as it feels like 'having a go'.

Thanks for the comment, I certainly didn't take it as a slight.
We're all looking to improve our betting habits.
I, too, don't like to post negative reaction to people's tips and I think that is a good default position.

I think that when we have a contrary indication to someone's bet, we just need to post our reasoning.
If people post tips that get some backing which no-one contradicts I'm inclined to go with them.
Comments like "Do I not like that" don't help but comments like "three games is too small a sample and over the last 20 games ..." help us all.
Generally I have found the level of contribution to this thread remarkable - long may it continue.

Fred placed a large number of bets on Euro2012 that haven't paid off. Fred was happy to do this because his return on previous football bets was encouraging. My opinion is that it's a case of positive variance being followed by negative variance.

I'd personally like to be in profit on bets that I place before tikay resumes control. I rely on the thread contributors to allow me to do this. I'm sure that we can do it.

[AceHighSuited]

the biggest problem i see with the thread is the consistency of the bet sizing

i would be interested to see profit/loss to a £1  level stake.

When fred is not doing so well we seem to make miniscule bets compared to bankrol/lloss ratio it is important we have correct bet sizing so when our fortune turns we have the chance to maximise inroads into losses.

For example 2nd pardon aftertiming but the corners bet tonight should have been a max bet even if not suggested as one because the case the op made was compelling.

[MereNovice]

The Andy Carroll bet has been settled as a £28 profit.
I'm working on an objection.

[bobby1]

The Andy Carroll bet has been settled as a £28 profit.
I'm working on an objection.

Its correct Vince, you get a 5th of the stake on at 15/2, so £8 at 15/2 which returns £68

[MereNovice]

The Andy Carroll bet has been settled as a £28 profit.
I'm working on an objection.

Its correct Vince, you get a 5th of the stake on at 15/2, so £8 at 15/2 which returns £68

My mistake.
I thought you got your whole stake plus 1/5 of any profit.
Thanks.

[scotty2hatty]

Hopefully we can crush Wimbledon. No bets yet?

[MereNovice]

I posted a couple of great arb opportunities.
The prices are no longer available, sadly.

[MereNovice]

the biggest problem i see with the thread is the consistency of the bet sizing

i would be interested to see profit/loss to a £1  level stake.

When fred is not doing so well we seem to make miniscule bets compared to bankrol/lloss ratio it is important we have correct bet sizing so when our fortune turns we have the chance to maximise inroads into losses.

For example 2nd pardon aftertiming but the corners bet tonight should have been a max bet even if not suggested as one because the case the op made was compelling.

It's easy enough to work out profit/loss to a £1 level stake.
What additional insight could you gather from this?

Bets are sized on a number of factors including:
1. Strength of recommendation
2. Current (virtual) bankroll - in line with good BRM we reduce our bet size as our bankroll decreases
3. History of the person making the bet

The case for tonight's corner betting was made on the results of three matches - a very small sample size.
I have previously stated that I will be making minimum bets unless there is a very compelling case.
The bet was placed on the back of a recommendation by aaron1867 with supporting statistics by henrik777. If you and/or any other people had added weight to this recommendation pre-match there is a good chance that the stake would have been increased.