Tips for Tikay

[redarmi]

Going to suggest a double on bookings in both semis.  My thinking is that they have been priced on the records so far etc and on previous semis but the rules have changed now so that yellows don't carry into semis so group and quarter finals are likely to have more players watching themselves and hence should be a bit lower than a semi.  Also previous semis were lower for the same reason.  Those factors should now mean that we see more cynical fouls because a booking isn't going to cost anyone a place in the final.

The best value of the two is definitely the Spain-Portugal game over 50 bookings points @ 13/10 with Bluesq but I would double it with them with over 50 @ 13/8 in Italy game too as if my thinking is correct and it isn't in the price then it is correlated.

[MereNovice]

Going to suggest a double on bookings in both semis.  My thinking is that they have been priced on the records so far etc and on previous semis but the rules have changed now so that yellows don't carry into semis so group and quarter finals are likely to have more players watching themselves and hence should be a bit lower than a semi.  Also previous semis were lower for the same reason.  Those factors should now mean that we see more cynical fouls because a booking isn't going to cost anyone a place in the final.

The best value of the two is definitely the Spain-Portugal game over 50 bookings points @ 13/10 with Bluesq but I would double it with them with over 50 @ 13/8 in Italy game too as if my thinking is correct and it isn't in the price then it is correlated.

Oooh, I can see this happening with those hot-headed Iberian sorts but will it happen with those cool, calculating Teutonic types?

(Other national stereotypes are available).

[TightEnd]

The change of rule about single yellow cards, twice (wiped after the semi), not meaning a suspension for the final is definitely a structural change in pricing compared to previous major competitions

redarmi can correct me but they would normally price the under/over match bet about 45, so they've adjusted the flex price up a notch

I think I'd want the overs though, for the reasons he suggests.

[henrik777]

Going to suggest a double on bookings in both semis.  My thinking is that they have been priced on the records so far etc and on previous semis but the rules have changed now so that yellows don't carry into semis so group and quarter finals are likely to have more players watching themselves and hence should be a bit lower than a semi.  Also previous semis were lower for the same reason.  Those factors should now mean that we see more cynical fouls because a booking isn't going to cost anyone a place in the final.

The best value of the two is definitely the Spain-Portugal game over 50 bookings points @ 13/10 with Bluesq but I would double it with them with over 50 @ 13/8 in Italy game too as if my thinking is correct and it isn't in the price then it is correlated.

Spain v Portugal has potential to be feisty but cards are low all tournament http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro/season=2012/statistics/round=15172/teams/type=yellowcards/index.html

Spain average is 1.5 per game and Portugal is 1.75

Germany 0.75 Italy 2.75.

Sandy

[MereNovice]

Do we know who the refs are yet?

[henrik777]

Do we know who the refs are yet?

http://www.goal.com/en-gb/news/3284/euro-2012/2012/06/25/3199783/euro-2012-semi-final-referees-appointed?source=breakingnews

Sandy

[MajorMajor]

I have Howard Webb to ref the final at 9-1, can't get the market up again. Surely he has a great chance now he isn't reffing the semis!

[Eso Kral]

Anybody not on the cricket match 6's bet already, Ladbrokes currently have over 5.5 Sixes at 8/11 in shop but get them to use the computers in shop as it is 4/6 otherwise.

[redarmi]

The change of rule about single yellow cards, twice (wiped after the semi), not meaning a suspension for the final is definitely a structural change in pricing compared to previous major competitions

redarmi can correct me but they would normally price the under/over match bet about 45, so they've adjusted the flex price up a notch

I think I'd want the overs though, for the reasons he suggests.

45 is a normal-ish average for the line but for sure a game like Portugal-Spain should be higher anyway.  The big worry in that game woould be how trappy it is likely to be as bookings go up exponentially with goals especially early goals which are not that likely here.

[Bazzaboy]

I run bad on this thread but I'll throw another dart

John Simpson v Paul Appleby

Simpson is one of the unluckiest boxers in the country.  His record is 22-9 however of those 9 defeats 5 of them were questionable.  One of them being against Appleby.  They fought four years ago with Appleby winning a UD 115-114, 115-114, 115-113.  I scored it 115-113 the other way but it was one of those fights that could have gone either way and neither could have argued with the result.  Appleby was a young prospect at the time and was expected to go on to bigger things.  Since then that hasn't happened and he has lost 3 of 7 being stopped in 2 of them and has failed to impress in any of them and has become very easy to hit.  Simpson has lost 3 of his last 4 however 2 of them were contentious points defeats to Stephen Smith and all were in British or Commonwealth title fights.  He was however stopped in for the first time in his last fight against Lee Selby.

Nothing I've seen since their first fight has made me think that this will be anything other than a close fight.  Simpson has impressed more since their first fight however he is coming off a stoppage defeat and stepping up in weight.   It's pretty much a pick 'em fight however Betfred are a massive 15/8 for a Simpson win.

[aaron1867]

I have Howard Webb to ref the final at 9-1, can't get the market up again. Surely he has a great chance now he isn't reffing the semis!

I might punt on this also. The downfall to this bet is that that surely they like to appoint a referee who has not had any criticism, but Webb has had some, from the Croatia boss. So -1 there.

I also get the feeling that when appointing refs to the big games they always have preference to a certain one, like that bald bloke from Italy who always reffed the big games and so far Webb has reffed the CL and WC final hasn't he?

So looks half decent.

Might have £5/£10 on it myself.

But also think the Scottish ref might have a chance? He seems to have had a decent tournament?

[Snowball]

I have Howard Webb to ref the final at 9-1, can't get the market up again. Surely he has a great chance now he isn't reffing the semis!

I might punt on this also. The downfall to this bet is that that surely they like to appoint a referee who has not had any criticism, but Webb has had some, from the Croatia boss. So -1 there.

I also get the feeling that when appointing refs to the big games they always have preference to a certain one, like that bald bloke from Italy who always reffed the big games and so far Webb has reffed the CL and WC final hasn't he?

So looks half decent.

Might have £5/£10 on it myself.

But also think the Scottish ref might have a chance? He seems to have had a decent tournament?

Not a chance Thompson gets it, I think the biggest game he has reffed is a Champions League quarter final and no Scottish officials were at the last World Cup.

[MereNovice]

Well, Middlesex have done their bit.
207-2 with 6 sixes.

One more six required.

[henrik777]

Boom..........

Thanks Tighty

Sandy

[MereNovice]

Yes, boom .......

.... and thanks.