Tips for Tikay

[rfgqqabc]

Whoever questioned 7/2 / 5/2 really needs to be careful. Pretty sure it was someone I rate as a judge, but that price was clearly a rick, and should have been smashed. Value loser again for me, had a gorgeous book at the off though!

[Horneris]

Two for Tomorrow at Wimbledon.

Jesse Levine to beat David Goffin @ 13/8 (Stan James)

Think the prices should be a lot closer here. Goffin is enjoying a breakthrough period were he scared Federer at the French and beat an 80% fit Tomic in the opening round here in 4 sets. This is only his 6th match on grass, a record of 3-2. This can't be a major negative because hes only young. But its a lack of grass court experience against a player who has played 46 times on the surface enjoying a record of 31-15.

The first round winner/UE stats for both players was at 39/28 Goffin, 38/13 Levine.

Levine's first round opponent Karol Beck quoted as saying "I couldn't cope with his excellent service".

The thing I really like though which many people may not be aware of is that Levine has been away at camp training with none other than Roger Federer http://sports.in.msn.com/tennis/article.aspx?cp-documentid=250205924. Sounds like they have been practicing together a lot and Fed has been giving him a lot of advice on his game which has to help. Also maybe Jesse has rung Fed for some advice on how to beat Goffin?

[Horneris]

Shvedova to beat Bertens 2-0 @ 7/4 (Laddies)

Bertens leads the H2H 1-0 with a win early this year. Bertens had an amazing first round win 6-3 6-0 over the high seeded Lucie Safarova.

After the match she admitted "Surprised I did so well today as some of my training sessions have been very poor. Grass isn't my favourite surface, it feels awkward."

She has a record of 1-2 on grass. Again though, she is only young and its her breakthrough year.

Shvedova reached the quarters of the french and I still feel like she could be riding the crest of a wave having made a surge up the rankings in the last 8 months or so. Grass court record not massively impressive, 18-16, I just feel with her heavy hitting and big serve she could have too much for young Bertens and her stated niggling doubts about the surface.

[Horneris]

Will leave the stakes to you, they wouldn't be max bets, perhaps a little bit more on the first one if you wake up in time to get the 13/8.

[MereNovice]

Will leave the stakes to you, they wouldn't be max bets, perhaps a little bit more on the first one if you wake up in time to get the 13/8.

As a wuss, I've put £40 on each of these.
Will update properly later.

Both look sound to me.

Thanks.

[MereNovice]

Two for Tomorrow at Wimbledon.

Jesse Levine to beat David Goffin @ 13/8 (Stan James)

Think the prices should be a lot closer here. Goffin is enjoying a breakthrough period were he scared Federer at the French and beat an 80% fit Tomic in the opening round here in 4 sets. This is only his 6th match on grass, a record of 3-2. This can't be a major negative because hes only young. But its a lack of grass court experience against a player who has played 46 times on the surface enjoying a record of 31-15.

The first round winner/UE stats for both players was at 39/28 Goffin, 38/13 Levine.

Levine's first round opponent Karol Beck quoted as saying "I couldn't cope with his excellent service".

The thing I really like though which many people may not be aware of is that Levine has been away at camp training with none other than Roger Federer http://sports.in.msn.com/tennis/article.aspx?cp-documentid=250205924. Sounds like they have been practicing together a lot and Fed has been giving him a lot of advice on his game which has to help. Also maybe Jesse has rung Fed for some advice on how to beat Goffin?

On.

Horneris   StanJames   Tennis   Goffin v Levine   Levine   13/8   £40

Goffin v Levine-ATP Wimbledon 2nd Rnd : Match Prices (Grand Slam Other Rounds)   Levine, Jesse   13/8
Total stake    £40.00
Estimated return    £105.00
Full stake    £   40.00
Full Estimated return    £   105.00

[MereNovice]

Shvedova to beat Bertens 2-0 @ 7/4 (Laddies)

Bertens leads the H2H 1-0 with a win early this year. Bertens had an amazing first round win 6-3 6-0 over the high seeded Lucie Safarova.

After the match she admitted "Surprised I did so well today as some of my training sessions have been very poor. Grass isn't my favourite surface, it feels awkward."

She has a record of 1-2 on grass. Again though, she is only young and its her breakthrough year.

Shvedova reached the quarters of the french and I still feel like she could be riding the crest of a wave having made a surge up the rankings in the last 8 months or so. Grass court record not massively impressive, 18-16, I just feel with her heavy hitting and big serve she could have too much for young Bertens and her stated niggling doubts about the surface.

On.

Horneris   Ladbrokes      Tennis   Shvedova v Bertens   Shvedova   7/4   £40

Single - Yaroslava Shvedova 2-0
1 line at £40.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £40.00
Potential Return: £110.00

[MereNovice]

I really like Michael Hoey in the golf this week.  He ticks pretty much all the boxes.  All of his wins have come on links type courses and he is playing the best golf of his career.  He won an amateur tournament around here and is from NI so he will be massively motivated around here.  55/1 just seems too big e/w to me.

On.

redarmi   BetFred   Golf   Irish Open   Hoey e/w   55/1   £20

The Irish Open - Outright
Tournament Outright
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5   Hoey, Michael   55/1   
Total stake   £ 20.00
Estimated return   £ 707.50

[MereNovice]

Golf The Irish Open.

For the first time since 1951 this is to be played at Royal Portrush in NI. So there is no previous course form to follow, but a few years ago a certain R McIlroy shot a then course record 61 when he was 16. This is a links course which is a completely different type of golf from what most of these players will have been playing so far this season.

Of the 3 leaders in the betting, McDowell, Harrington and McIlroy my preference is for McDowell. He is in great form, finishing 2nd in the US Open on a tough course, and this is his home course so he will know exactly where to hit his tee shots- let's just hope it goes where he wants it to. Recommend £20 win 10-1 in lots of places.

For my 2nd selection I have spent the best part of 2 hours trying to find a solid reason not  to put this up- but I have failed. At 25-1 Nicolas Colsaerts is overpriced. Maybe as he is Belgian no one wants to back him, but his form is top class. He has won on the tour this year, he had 3 very good rounds at the US Open, then a bad final round which he blamed on the fog. I had hoped to find that he has no form on links courses so I could avoid him, but last season he played 2 links tournaments finshing 9th in the Alfred Dunhill and 3rd in the Scottish Open with a combined total of 29 under par. Even if I failed to recommend him no doubt Tikay would do his trick of backing him and then assigning it to me. I also like the thought of Tikay in Vegas watching in one of those sports bars shouting " Go get'em 3G" and lots of "in the holes". All the while drinking a latte out of his brown brogue.

Recommend Colsaerts £10 e/w @ 25-1 with Paddy Power who are paying 1-6 places.

3G was a given.
McDowell sounds good to me too but that means nothing really.
Comments please.

On.

hector62   PaddyPower   Golf   Irish Open   McDowell e/w   10/1   £20
hector62   PaddyPower   Golf   Irish Open   Colsaerts e/w   25/1   £20

27/06/2012   Single Each-Way   Mcdowell, Graeme @ 10/1
Outright Betting
Irish Open Outright Betting   Pending   £20.00   
27/06/2012   Single Each-Way   Colsaerts, Nicolas @ 25/1
Outright Betting
Irish Open Outright Betting   Pending   £20.00

[MereNovice]

Daily Summary, as @ 05:30, Thursday June 28th

LOSS on Month = £398.34

Unsettled Bets = £337.50


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=8

[MereNovice]

Daily Summary, as @ 05:30, Thursday June 28th

We had another winning day.

Our major bet of the day was on Portugal getting more corners than Spain in the Euro2012 semi-final. I missed the game and my heart sank when I looked at the BBC stats and saw Portugal 6 Spain 7. Luckily those figures were for the whole match and the market was for 90 minutes when Portugal were ahead. Well done aaron1867 and people who supplied supporting statistics.

We also had a couple of more fun small bets that didn't come in but were most definitely value. I think that one of the great assets of this thread is having people who are able to spot markets like the "Man Of The Match" before the bookies adjust. Great work.

Fred also placed £30 on the number of sixes in the Leicestershire v Yorkshire cricket match. He would have liked more but things worked out nicely because the bet fell 3 short.

[MereNovice]

What's coming up?

The second semi-final of Euro2012 (Germany v Italy) is tonight at 7:45pm. We have no bets on this at the moment apart from wanting Gomez to score (lots).

Wimbledon continues.

The European athletics championship continues in Helsinki.

Snooker continues in China.

There's domestic T20 cricket but neither of our runners (Surrey and Glamorgan) play today. However Tighty may have spotted some value in the sixes market for Essex v Sussex, we will check later.

In the Golf, the Irish Open starts today. We have three runners (Hoey, McDowell and Colsaerts) in this.

[smashedagain]

Great result for the thread yesterday Vince. Do you feel under any pressure results wise because it did not look too good a while back? Obv you can only work with the tips given and Tikay would lay no blame at your door.

[MereNovice]

Great result for the thread yesterday Vince. Do you feel under any pressure results wise because it did not look too good a while back? Obv you can only work with the tips given and Tikay would lay no blame at your door.

I'm becoming inured to the pain.
Initially I felt nervous about even putting tips up, even for sums less than I would often bet myself.
Now, I'm happy to spend tikay's money.

As you will have noticed, the stakes are generally less at the moment and the bets less frequent. If I can stay in profit during my tenure I will be happy.

The tips have been good. I have missed out on some good ones but please keep them coming, everyone. Even if Fred doesn't make the bet I know that there are many other people who read the thread who are happy to follow the good advice.

[hector62]

2 out of 5 matches have been draws in the knock out stages of Euro 2012- very close to the 42% that Mr Pullein predicted. 4 out of 5 have had less than 2 1/2 goals. I feel the extra rest that the Germans have had will be important and will be a case of is the Italian defence able to withstand the German assault and get to penalties? My gut feeling is not. Not yet looked at prices but expect lots of Italian bookings, few Italian shots/goals. The Germans created shed loads of chances against Greece and they were meant to have a decent defence.

All 3 golfers started well. Did you really do McDowell e/w and not win? It's no biggie but it does make greening out harder to do. And we know how much our leader enjoys a good green out.