Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Is the thread interested in laying Sir Bradley Wiggins in the SPOTY.

I like him a lot and he is obviously flavour of the month.  But it is July, the competition is in December, he won't be so high profile after the olympics and you can lay at 1.73 on betfair right now.  Surely he is due a drift?

Worth a swift £50?

[tikay]

Tal......

That Arc thing.....

One other thing I noted was this......


Firstly, why that horse? He's won it before and gets better throughout the season (he needs runs). The Arc is a fast paced race (much more so than in the UK, where there are usually more canny tactics) and Nathaniel likes to be up near the front, so as to stay out of trouble.

He will benefit from the weekend run and, in my view, is a better horse than Fred's clever pick. He also likes to rail and if he can, that tends to be quite a good position for staying out of trouble - running at pace, the horses don't hug the rail quite as much. He's not likely to be boxed in if he's towards the front in any event.

Unless the Arc has changed since I was following the gee gees, if a horse gets badly drawn @ Longchamp he has no chance of getting to the rail, more so if he is a British or Irish trained horse.

I have to add that, as Doobs already noted, this years renewal of the King George was a truly wonderful race, two genuine horses really going for it, nip & tuck, the result literally on the nod. Wonderful memory, one to cherish.

I vividly remember watching the Grundy-Bustino duel in the King George, which must be the better part of 30 years ago, Eddery v Mercer, Walwn v Hern, Grundy (Great Nephew/Word from Lundy) v Bustino (Busted/Ship Yard), Carlo Vittadani v Lady Beaverbrook.  It was billed then as the "Race of the Century", but I gather there have been about 30 more "Race of the Centuries" since then.

Make that 31.

[rfgqqabc]

Is the thread interested in laying Sir Bradley Wiggins in the SPOTY.

I like him a lot and he is obviously flavour of the month.  But it is July, the competition is in December, he won't be so high profile after the olympics and you can lay at 1.73 on betfair right now.  Surely he is due a drift?

Worth a swift £50?

He actually has personality, been bummed to death in the papers, and it really depends on a sports backing, cycling clearly has this with Hoy winning in 08. Plus its a stand out  achievement, and he has the potential to do more yet!

Normally i would completely agree with the lay, as the current flavour of the month tends to be super short, but in this case I'm not sure i like it.

[Tal]

Tal......

That Arc thing.....

One other thing I noted was this......


Firstly, why that horse? He's won it before and gets better throughout the season (he needs runs). The Arc is a fast paced race (much more so than in the UK, where there are usually more canny tactics) and Nathaniel likes to be up near the front, so as to stay out of trouble.

He will benefit from the weekend run and, in my view, is a better horse than Fred's clever pick. He also likes to rail and if he can, that tends to be quite a good position for staying out of trouble - running at pace, the horses don't hug the rail quite as much. He's not likely to be boxed in if he's towards the front in any event.

Unless the Arc has changed since I was following the gee gees, if a horse gets badly drawn @ Longchamp he has no chance of getting to the rail, more so if he is a British or Irish trained horse.

I have to add that, as Doobs already noted, this years renewal of the King George was a truly wonderful race, two genuine horses really going for it, nip & tuck, the result literally on the nod. Wonderful memory, one to cherish.

I vividly remember watching the Grundy-Bustino duel in the King George, which must be the better part of 30 years ago, Eddery v Mercer, Walwn v Hern, Grundy (Great Nephew/Word from Lundy) v Bustino (Busted/Ship Yard), Carlo Vittadani v Lady Beaverbrook.  It was billed then as the "Race of the Century", but I gather there have been about 30 more "Race of the Centuries" since then.

Make that 31.

I can address that one. If he is drawn very badly, getting across won't happen because he'd be too far behind. It is another antepost risk but it's not critical to his success. I'm not advocating backing a horse that otherwise would not stand a chance.

I boo-bood on a particularly relevant point, as discussed above, so I am happy to withdraw the suggestion. If and when the time comes nearer to October, Nathaniel might make the shortlist, but for now this could be best watched.

The real irony is I teetered and drafted/deleted a "you should back the forecast to include Nathaniel" on Saturday, but didn't send it out, in case it looked stupid. Instead, I don't but suggest an antepost punt on incorrect logic! Did back the forecast, incidentally and felt a fool for not pressing "Post".

I'd love to trot out a cliché like "it can make you look foolish, this game" but I managed that on me own! 

[Chompy]

Is the thread interested in laying Sir Bradley Wiggins in the SPOTY.

I like him a lot and he is obviously flavour of the month.  But it is July, the competition is in December, he won't be so high profile after the olympics and you can lay at 1.73 on betfair right now.  Surely he is due a drift?

Worth a swift £50?

He actually has personality, been bummed to death in the papers, and it really depends on a sports backing, cycling clearly has this with Hoy winning in 08. Plus its a stand out  achievement, and he has the potential to do more yet!

Normally i would completely agree with the lay, as the current flavour of the month tends to be super short, but in this case I'm not sure i like it.

Absolutely a lay at that price.

[tikay]

Lol, nothing makes mugs of us like punting. Except poker, maybe......

I might be talking through my pocket as to Saturday, but I thought is was a sick race.....

Whatever Fred decides, I shall have a small interest in Nathaniel in the Arc, notwithstanding the Camelot decision, although 7/1 looks a little mean to me, that's some tough race to win.

[TightEnd]

Phenomenal achievement but I don't think he's Even money or close to it in a fortnight when the Olympics throws up its stories

Anyone watch the Daley programme tonight? Just heartbreaking watching him with his Dad who gave up everything for his son's diving and died before he reached maturity in his sport.

There will be more of these in the next fortnight

Lay.

Pretty crucial the Olympics wall to wall BBC1 and final stage apart TdeF was on Eurosport or ITV4(3?) only

[horseplayer]

yes this daley programme is very well put together much like pendletons was

impossible not to be in tears with this

[MereNovice]

In an attempt to squeeze out the last bit of value I have laid £100 at 1.75.
If it's not taken I will re-assess in the morning.

[Doobs]

Lol, nothing makes mugs of us like punting. Except poker, maybe......

I might be talking through my pocket as to Saturday, but I thought is was a sick race.....

Whatever Fred decides, I shall have a small interest in Nathaniel in the Arc, notwithstanding the Camelot decision, although 7/1 looks a little mean to me, that's some tough race to win.

If you are going to back Nathaniel then dont take as he is 9.8 on betfair.  There isn't much money around to back so you may get 10.5 if greedy. 

I really wouldn't put you off at that kind of price.  The facts were wrong but that doesn't make it a bad bet.

  I like both the first and second in the race and wouldnt be surprised if St Nicholas Abbey showed up too, instead of Camelot.  Looks like you could get 20/1 on that which looks fair too.  Though AOB seems to be developing a reputation for been less than clear in his running plans.

[rfgqqabc]

Is the thread interested in laying Sir Bradley Wiggins in the SPOTY.

I like him a lot and he is obviously flavour of the month.  But it is July, the competition is in December, he won't be so high profile after the olympics and you can lay at 1.73 on betfair right now.  Surely he is due a drift?

Worth a swift £50?

He actually has personality, been bummed to death in the papers, and it really depends on a sports backing, cycling clearly has this with Hoy winning in 08. Plus its a stand out  achievement, and he has the potential to do more yet!

Normally i would completely agree with the lay, as the current flavour of the month tends to be super short, but in this case I'm not sure i like it.

Absolutely a lay at that price.

1 medal away from being the most decorated British Olympian. Probably is a lay going on knowledge of previous years but not as good a lay as previous year. Betfair markets are just getting more efficient over time.

[Chompy]

I don't see any major upside with backing Nathaniel now for the Arc. Also it ties up money for a few months. Not like he has the potential to start 5/2 or summit stupid imo.

[redarmi]

Love the Wiggins lay.  He could easily be 7/2 in a months time and there is literally no chance at all he is 2/5 in a months time in fact I struggle to see how he can be shorter than 8/11 in a month.

[MereNovice]

Is the thread interested in laying Sir Bradley Wiggins in the SPOTY.

I like him a lot and he is obviously flavour of the month.  But it is July, the competition is in December, he won't be so high profile after the olympics and you can lay at 1.73 on betfair right now.  Surely he is due a drift?

Worth a swift £50?

On.

Doobs   Betfair   Misc.   BBC Sports Personality 2012     Wiggins - lay   1.75   £75

Lay
Bradley Wiggins   1.75   £100.00   £74.97

[MereNovice]

Daily Summary, as @ 06:30, Tuesday July 24th

LOSS on Month = £11.00

Unsettled Bets = £452.50

The unsettled bets will be carried forward into August's accounts.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=9