Tips for Tikay

[ACE2M]

I know nothing about the female athlete you put up as a bet. Couldn't therefore comment, recommend, dissuade etc

I think Wiggins might be a longer price after the Olympics

As I said last night, a major feel good story like Daley, Ennis, Farah: one of them will bink

The thread can then reverse engines on the lay if need be

NO LAYING!

Daley won't win. Ennis is one bad round away from not winning, Farah is my fear 5/10k double would be immense. Hope he does it tho.

[MereNovice]

Why does Fred want to oppose me on Wiggins all the time?

I recommended him at a big price ages ago and nobody would listen. I think its massively underestimated what an achievement that was.

If Farah or Ennis don't win golds which is a distinct possibility its absolutely over.

If Wiggins scoops time trial gold and leads out Cav to road race gold you can forget about it whatever those pair do.


I stuck up a bet on athletics the other day, Fred has no interest?

It may be because Fred is a mug, I'm not sure. It's a definite possibility.

With regard to Wiggins we clearly missed a good tip. Thanks for that. My personal feeling now is that, although it is clearly a great achievement, not enough people follow cycling outside of the Olympic events. This may be reflected in the fact that no (traditional) terrestrial channel covers the TDF. I watch a lot of sport on TV but I can't say that the TDF has gripped me and made me feel that Wiggins is an odds on favourite for SPOTY. I may just be out of touch with reality but laying him at odds on prior to an Olympics that is bound to throw up some huge stories seems like a good bet.


With regard to the Murielle Ahoure tip, if someone provides a favourable second opinion then I'll happily back it. There were times when I would be happy to back my own judgement on athletics but this hasn't been the case for some years - I just don't follow it closely any more.


In summary, there's definitely nothing personal in me not backing these two tips and I really hope that you continue to provide such quality content. The thread will only continue to succeed if a variety of punters give us their recommendations. I am, by nature, more cautious than some (certainly with someone else's money) and this is probably reflected in the amount of bets that I place.

[Skippy]

Erm, you do know that Cavendish won last year, so it's clearly a popular enough sport to win.

I fancy laying Wiggins at 1.75 too, but there is a very good possibility in a month you will be looking at him having won the TdF and a gold medal, along with playing a major supporting role in Cavendish winning another gold. That's strong.

I agree with the Camel that it's going to have to be an Olympian this year.

[edgascoigne]

One of the curiosities of Sports Betting, in my opinion of course, is that the more niche the event/selection/market, the more you should have on.

This is a woeful oversimplification of course - you should actually be having your largest bets where the discrepancy between the available price and the 'true price' is greatest. Difficult to ever know the 'true price' mind. Bugger. The two are linked however...

Let me give a couple of examples...

(A) Man Utd are set to play away at Newcastle in the Premier League. Newcastle have outperformed expectations all season, Cabaye is playing well etc. etc. etc. There is a wealth of interest/knowledge, both recreational and professional, about the game. The bookmakers odds compilers have had their say, Bloom/Edery et. al are involved, huge volumes are traded in Asia....and the recreational sorts are playing too.

The numbers interested --> Huge numbers traded --> Ever decreasing market inefficiencies, which, going back to the second point, suggests such events should see minimal stakes from someone seeking to make a profit. The outcome of the match is of course 1-X-2, meaning there will always be winners who can be convinced they made a value bet ("'cos it won"), though in reality they have simply far performed their EV due to the binary nature of the outcome.

(B) Making Eyes is set to run in the 220pm in Vichy, with Hugo Palmer having taken her over to France for the occasion. The race itself is nothing special in the grand scheme of things. French legislation means betting is through the PMU, a Tote. The horse/trainer are foreign, the French don't care for it much/know much about it. Hugo and the boys however have been prepping for this campaign. They know the French market will neglect the filly, leaving her overpriced versus her true probability of winning owing to the market's imperfection (unlike Example A).

It's markets like this where, with knowledge that you are convinced is beyond that available to the market at large, you must ramp your stakes versus more 'recreational' activity in order to turn a profit.



All a long, rambling way of saying next time you get a 'tip' for the Biathlon, Curling or something similar from someone who you would trust beyond the market and the odds compilers who give such markets nothing more than a fleeting glance and a reduced stake factor....barrel in.

[MereNovice]

The response from PaddyPower to the viewer ratings figure:

The market would be settled on BBC official figures. The BBC would calculate viewer numbers and release their viewer ratings (TAM ratings). Each Terrestrial station releases its own TAM ratings  usually published through the media, for example in the Guardian
 http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/tvratings

An update from PaddyPower.

"Further to your query on Olympic Opening Cermony average viewing figures, our Novelties traders have informed me this morning,  that bets will be settled according to the figures reported on   the following website:   www.digitalspy.co.uk "

I'm still not sure how this rating is working out but I think that we can all get some feel for the numbers based on a comparison to other high visibility programs.

[The Camel]

Erm, you do know that Cavendish won last year, so it's clearly a popular enough sport to win.

I fancy laying Wiggins at 1.75 too, but there is a very good possibility in a month you will be looking at him having won the TdF and a gold medal, along with playing a major supporting role in Cavendish winning another gold. That's strong.

I agree with the Camel that it's going to have to be an Olympian this year.

I've laid Wiggins for my maximum at 1.9.

Thought it couldn't go shorter until after the Olympics.

Underestimated how much Sky would play it up - should have been obvious though as he rides for Team Sky.

Now is clearly the optimum lay time.

I don't think he can't win.. but I'd be very surprised if you couldn't lay him at well above evens some time in the next fortnight.

[Laxie]

mmmmm lollipops

Click to see full-size image.

She needs a bigger bra

[tikay]

The response from PaddyPower to the viewer ratings figure:

The market would be settled on BBC official figures. The BBC would calculate viewer numbers and release their viewer ratings (TAM ratings). Each Terrestrial station releases its own TAM ratings  usually published through the media, for example in the Guardian
 http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/tvratings

An update from PaddyPower.

"Further to your query on Olympic Opening Cermony average viewing figures, our Novelties traders have informed me this morning,  that bets will be settled according to the figures reported on   the following website:   www.digitalspy.co.uk "

I'm still not sure how this rating is working out but I think that we can all get some feel for the numbers based on a comparison to other high visibility programs.

I cannot see the actual ratings on that Site, Vince, just articles about them.

Where exactly are they, please?

[MereNovice]

Erm, you do know that Cavendish won last year, so it's clearly a popular enough sport to win.

I fancy laying Wiggins at 1.75 too, but there is a very good possibility in a month you will be looking at him having won the TdF and a gold medal, along with playing a major supporting role in Cavendish winning another gold. That's strong.

I agree with the Camel that it's going to have to be an Olympian this year.

Apologies, I expressed myself very poorly.
I meant to compare the proflie of the TDF and any significant Olympic achievement.
It seems most of us are agreed that a high profile Olympian will win the award. If that proves to be Wiggins, I will have blown tikay's money.

[redarmi]

Surely the simple question regarding Wiggins is what price will he be in a months time.  Even if he wins Olympic gold (which I think he will be about 4/6 to do) the Olympic focus will not be on him and it will likely be on Ennis, Daley, Idowu, Greene, Adlington, Farah etc.  If and when any or all of these people win gold they will trade much shorter than they are now and, as a result, Wiggins will trade higher.  The bet, to my mind, isn't about whether Wiggins deserves to win SPOTY or even whether he is value to win it (even though he isn't) it is speculation on price movement.  Every year people trade in this market too short after they have won an event.  This year, at our home Olympics, we are expected to win 25+ gold medals.  Over two weeks 24 people will be introduced into the SPOTY market (some were there already) and people like Alistair Brownlee, Shanaze Reade and Helen Tucker will probably trade below 100/1 when they literally have zero chance of winning.  Laying them would be the right thing to do too if Fred had the bankroll.   I think there is probably something like a 45-50% chance Wiggins wins but I think the chances of him trading higher in the next month are in the 90%+ range.  Incidentally I think we should trade out at 2/1+

[TightEnd]

Surely the simple question regarding Wiggins is what price will he be in a months time.  Even if he wins Olympic gold (which I think he will be about 4/6 to do) the Olympic focus will not be on him and it will likely be on Ennis, Daley, Idowu, Greene, Adlington, Farah etc.  If and when any or all of these people win gold they will trade much shorter than they are now and, as a result, Wiggins will trade higher.  The bet, to my mind, isn't about whether Wiggins deserves to win SPOTY or even whether he is value to win it (even though he isn't) it is speculation on price movement.  Every year people trade in this market too short after they have won an event.  This year, at our home Olympics, we are expected to win 25+ gold medals.  Over two weeks 24 people will be introduced into the SPOTY market (some were there already) and people like Alistair Brownlee, Shanaze Reade and Helen Tucker will probably trade below 100/1 when they literally have zero chance of winning.  Laying them would be the right thing to do too if Fred had the bankroll.   I think there is probably something like a 45-50% chance Wiggins wins but I think the chances of him trading higher in the next month are in the 90%+ range.  Incidentally I think we should trade out at 2/1+

this was my point, better expressed

This is one of those occasions I think we should DEFINITELY consider a trade out of the lay after the Olympics.

[The Camel]

mmmmm lollipops

Click to see full-size image.

She needs a bigger bra

Or a bigger lollipop

[The Camel]

Surely the simple question regarding Wiggins is what price will he be in a months time.  Even if he wins Olympic gold (which I think he will be about 4/6 to do) the Olympic focus will not be on him and it will likely be on Ennis, Daley, Idowu, Greene, Adlington, Farah etc.  If and when any or all of these people win gold they will trade much shorter than they are now and, as a result, Wiggins will trade higher.  The bet, to my mind, isn't about whether Wiggins deserves to win SPOTY or even whether he is value to win it (even though he isn't) it is speculation on price movement.  Every year people trade in this market too short after they have won an event.  This year, at our home Olympics, we are expected to win 25+ gold medals.  Over two weeks 24 people will be introduced into the SPOTY market (some were there already) and people like Alistair Brownlee, Shanaze Reade and Helen Tucker will probably trade below 100/1 when they literally have zero chance of winning.  Laying them would be the right thing to do too if Fred had the bankroll.   I think there is probably something like a 45-50% chance Wiggins wins but I think the chances of him trading higher in the next month are in the 90%+ range.  Incidentally I think we should trade out at 2/1+

this was my point, better expressed

This is one of those occasions I think we should DEFINITELY consider a trade out of the lay after the Olympics.

Depending on the price (obv)

[tikay]

Very interesting Post by Ed, thank you.

Sample size is our enemy, but so far, we are 0 for plenty on these relatively (in betting terms) obscure sports, such as Speedway, Gaelic Football, Motorbikes, etc.

In the sports where the market inefficiences are ironed out due to sheer volume (Newcastle v Man U etc), THAT is precisely where the greatest range of views & knowledge exists amongst us.

So, when a relative stranger or thread newbie arrives & pops up a tip for, say, Speedway, none of us have the faintest idea if it is logical, well-reasoned, or whether the chap has grasped the "value" notion. It's like bumping into a stranger in Ladbrokes one day who says "psst, back Westmead Whatever, it's nailed on". We just don't know, but we would not take his advice, would we? At the very least, we'd be cautious, surely?

I agree 100%, by the way, as to the Parimuteul example.

[TightEnd]

Surely the simple question regarding Wiggins is what price will he be in a months time.  Even if he wins Olympic gold (which I think he will be about 4/6 to do) the Olympic focus will not be on him and it will likely be on Ennis, Daley, Idowu, Greene, Adlington, Farah etc.  If and when any or all of these people win gold they will trade much shorter than they are now and, as a result, Wiggins will trade higher.  The bet, to my mind, isn't about whether Wiggins deserves to win SPOTY or even whether he is value to win it (even though he isn't) it is speculation on price movement.  Every year people trade in this market too short after they have won an event.  This year, at our home Olympics, we are expected to win 25+ gold medals.  Over two weeks 24 people will be introduced into the SPOTY market (some were there already) and people like Alistair Brownlee, Shanaze Reade and Helen Tucker will probably trade below 100/1 when they literally have zero chance of winning.  Laying them would be the right thing to do too if Fred had the bankroll.   I think there is probably something like a 45-50% chance Wiggins wins but I think the chances of him trading higher in the next month are in the 90%+ range.  Incidentally I think we should trade out at 2/1+

this was my point, better expressed

This is one of those occasions I think we should DEFINITELY consider a trade out of the lay after the Olympics.

Depending on the price (obv)

I'm assuming 4/6 is artiifically short, and post others fulfilling their achievements at the Olympics the price will drift out, whether Wiggins wins the time trial or not

redarmi's 2-1 seems a reasonable target to at least discuss it