Tips for Tikay

[Graham C]

Brazil Women to beat GB Women in the footy at 5/4 seems ok to me.  Brazil are 2nd fave's to win the gold medal behind the USA.  Both teams won opening games but Brazil have a slightly better goal difference having scored 6 to our 4, neither have conceded a goal.

Good luck

I wanted to suggest GB at 3-1

Should be a good game

Hope so, there's been some good games so far, but the last few I've watched have been pretty uneventful.

[redarmi]

Very unpatriotic but I have just gone through basically every market I have knowledge of and can only find one or two where gb arenot woefully underpriced as are a lot of underdogs.  I actually am contemplating a blind strategy of backing the fave blind in any market where a team gb competitor is <10/1.

[tikay]

I was three quarters of the way through typing a recommendation for the Irish Greyhound Derby last night before my laptop died. Not died as in the battery died, died as in it went off and won't go back on. Devastated.

Anyway, I've switched to my phone, and after a fair bit of studying I want to offer up some long shots on the IGD, I believe you older folk call them banzais.

My favourite bet is on Beany Tunes, available at 200/1 in one place, Corals. Usually runs over the slightly shorter 525y (Derby is 550), and has came into form at the perfect time which a couple of really nice runs lately. The IGB website is very good and has plenty of videos available so I've seen that it's been trapping well and, despite no real form over 550, it looks to be running on strongly over 525 suggesting the Derby trip will be fine. Just suggesting £5EW.

To expand your interest in the event, and to support the main bet, I suggest backing another couple of dogs at prices too. Robbiesgoneagain has a sprinkling of very decent form and whilst I'd rather it had a few more trials I think it's worth £5 at the 85 on Betfair. The final offering is Tyrur Big Mike who can really really crack out, and whilst perhaps has a little to find on the clock (most do), he can still play a big part. 55 on Betfair, have another 5er, as short as 25/1 elsewhere last night.

£20 total outlay and hopefully get a good run. Competition starts tomorrow.

Would love to hear other opinions too.

Thanks.

Yup, I've heard them older folk refer to "Banzais".......

This is complicated.

I missed the 200/1 on Beany Tunes, had to take 150/1 with Coral. He who hesitates loses.

I got a better price for Robbiesgoneagain - 100/1 with Betfred, as opposed to the 85 you mentioned on Betfair. (Which I think has now gone anyway). He who hesitates wins.   

I got the same price as quoted by you, but with Wm Hill not Betfair on Tynur Big Mike. He who hesitates stands pat.

ON

Single(s) - Each way Receipt No.: 30797449 
Irish Derby - Win or Each Way (Ante Post) 
Beany Tunes @ 150/1 
Each Way @ 1/4 1-6 
 
Stake: £10.00 (£5.00 x 2 lines) 
Estimated Returns: £ 947.50 


2012 Ladbrokes Irish Derby
Outright Betting
 Robbiesgoneagain 100/1 
Total stake £ 5.00
Estimated return £ 505.00

Full stake £ 5.00
Full estimated return £ 505.00


01 Aug 2012 - Ladbrokes Irish Greyhound Derby - Outright

Tip ItTyrur Big Mike @ 50/1

Stake : £5.00
Estimated Returns : £255.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000029/F

[Graham C]

Wonder if the fact that both teams have qualified will effect things? (unless it's only the top team that goes through)

[tikay]

Very unpatriotic but I have just gone through basically every market I have knowledge of and can only find one or two where gb arenot woefully underpriced as are a lot of underdogs.  I actually am contemplating a blind strategy of backing the fave blind in any market where a team gb competitor is <10/1.

Lateral thinking. Like.

[tikay]

As we have opposing views on that GB v Brazil Womens football, I'm holding off for now.

[scotty2hatty]

If you get a mo, can you give us a few tips for tonight's Sussex Cup Greyhound racing from Hove, which is televised?

They do not need to be Fred Tips, these are just so I can have a little off-thread punt.

Thanks.

Love Sky Dogs, here's my thoughts on this evening, for anyone looking to bet blind and for debate amongst other followers.

7:40 - Early pace looks to come from traps 3 and 4 and whilst I'm a sucker for early pace I am opposing the early this time and plumping for T1 Westmead Adonis @ 5/2. Trap 4 is far too short for me at 7/4 and don't think it can lead T3 anyway, whilst T2 being a middle seed can lead to issues with it moving right out the boxes.  Looks like it'll open up for the Derby finalist Westmead Adonis who ran on well over the 480 at Wimbledon and should go well over 515 here. The dog has been in good form since the Derby too, with 5 wins from 6. Possible negative is that this will be it's first look at Hove.

8:00 - Good, but tough, race and my record over longer distances has been poor, sometimes not reading the races right. Would normally be a no bet but since it's on TV I think T6 King Gemma is the value at 7/1. Has ran well over the 687 at Wimbledon and think it could be a player here too.

8:15 - Puppy Final and Farloe Tango is unbackable for me at 4/11 from trap 1.  I'm trying T6 Ballymac Tobias @ 6/1 who can take a length or two out of these at the start and is the value alternative to the favourite.  4:11, 4:10 and 4:08 are its last 3 sectionals over this trip with nothing else getting close to that and whilst the favourite may pick it off we can hope for trouble in behind.  I prefer my whole stake on the win, but EW could play here too potentially.

8:35 - Fernhill Jess made me a good bit on Derby Final night where we got a cracking price and tonight it renews its battle with Dynamo Joe who it held off last week. Two runner race really and haven't been able to make a decision, no bet.

8:50 - Bubbly Capel is an awesome marathon dog but doesn't always win and I won't be backing it at even money.  Instead we should back T6 Charleys Lucy @ 10/1 who broke the 893 record at Coventry two runs back and more recently picked up Aero Gaga (T1 tonight) over the same distance.

9:10 - Silverview Perky has proven to be the top bitch in the country recently but at 4/11 is no value here and I've went for T1 Scramble @ 10/1 who can lead them round and the 29:77 from the 15th of July could prove good enough to hold off Perky who looks like it'll have first run on Scramble.

9:25 - Running out of time, have MMA class at 7.  Backing T6 Blonde Reagan @ 5/1.

9:45 - At the moment I'm prefering T6 Airlie Impact @ 6/4 over the 1 dog but wouldn't back it any shorter than that price.  Currently 9/4 for T1 and can't really put anyone off backing it.  Very keen to hear other opinions on this race.

[tikay]

Thanks Scotty.

I won't do them as official Fred Bets - unless you have a "standout", but I can have some fun on my own account, & hopefully others will, too.

[tikay]

baseball

New york mets to beat san fransico giants

New yorks pitcher
Mets hurler Matt Harvey notched the win in his big league debut Thursday vs. the D-backs, yielding three hits and three walks with 11 strikeouts over 5 1/3 scoreless frames.
Harvey, who entered the season ranked by MLB.com as the organization's No. 2 prospect, struck out the first batter of his career, three of the first five and eight of the first 14. His only flaw was his inefficiency, as the young righty needed 106 pitches (65 strikes) to complete 5 1/3 innings. Harvey posted a 3.68 ERA and 112/48 K/BB ratio over 110 innings in the Minors prior to his debut.

San fransisco pitcher
Tim Lincecum finished the first half at 3-10 with a 6.42 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and 104/50 K/BB ratio in 96 2/3 innings.

Control issues, poor luck and the home-run ball all played a hand in Lincecum’s nightmarish first half. His 4.66 BB/9 is considerably higher than his 3.43 career mark, which has caused him to work laboriously in many of his starts. On seven different occasions, the Freak has thrown 90 or more pitches without completing a full six innings. His .333 BABIP and 59.2 percent strand rate are considerably worse than the league average (.292, 72.5 percent) and his career marks (.297, 74.2 percent). Also, Lincecum has already served up 11 homers, more than he allowed in each of his Cy Young campaigns in 2008 and 2009.

Lincecum seemed like he may be getting back to his old self with two good performances back to back, but nope he had another poor outing in his last match vs a very light hitting san diego team

Stats for averages over last 7 games
new york hitters
torres .400
wright .107
tejada .276
murphy .222
hairston .368

Another thing to bare in bind in harvey the pitcher was 2 out of 2 batting in his first game, so a pitcher who is not too bad with bat, which can be crucial as most pitcher are a easy out for the opposition

San fransico hitters
cabera .240
pagan .217
belt .318
posey .300
scheriozez .358

From the stats it shows we have a big advantage in the pitching aspect, and san fransico are in better form with the bat

But new york mets, have come back into some form the bat and have beat san fransico in the last two game scores of 8-7 and 5-1, so our hitters have scored 13 runs in its last two games so run support for harvey should be there

I suggest £40 at 27/20 with bet 365

Thanks Sir Singhee.

I can't bet with Bet365, as I'm "restricted" (almost a chirp...) so I went with BetFred & lost a tinsy bit of price, 13/10 rather than 27/20.

Anyway, we are ON.

Thanks!

ON

 NY Mets - (Harvey) @ San Francisco Giants - (Lincecum)
Match Prices
 NY Mets - (Harvey) 13/10 
Total stake £ 40.00
Estimated return £ 92.00

Full stake £ 40.00
Full estimated return £ 92.00

[scotty2hatty]

Thanks Scotty.

I won't do them as official Fred Bets - unless you have a "standout", but I can have some fun on my own account, & hopefully others will, too.

No real standout but some cracking prices there, couple of winners and it will be a good night.  Might get bigger prices on BF for some of these nearer the bunny.

[MereNovice]

Argentina to beat USA by at least 4?

http://www.oddschecker.com/olympics/hockey/womens/argentina-women-v-usa-women/handicaps

SkyBet seem out of line with the rest.

Any thoughts?

In their first matches,

Argentina beat South Africa 7-1

Germany beat USA  2-1

South Africa are two places below USA in the world rankings.

[MintTrav]

The 100m sprinters aside, which US track and field athletes should we look out for as the biggest medal hopes?

Interestingly Javier Culson who is Dai Greene's main rival not mentioned

Hes from Puerto Rico

thank you!

(amateur hour here)

fortunately I did not ask him my follow up then!

Haven't posted in this thread before, but I think that was kinda fortunate, considering Johnson is his manager.

[MereNovice]

Argentina to beat USA by at least 4?

http://www.oddschecker.com/olympics/hockey/womens/argentina-women-v-usa-women/handicaps

SkyBet seem out of line with the rest.

Any thoughts?

In their first matches,

Argentina beat South Africa 7-1

Germany beat USA  2-1

South Africa are two places below USA in the world rankings.

USA lead 1-0 at half-time; probably not a good bet.

[tikay]

Brazil Women to beat GB Women in the footy at 5/4 seems ok to me.  Brazil are 2nd fave's to win the gold medal behind the USA.  Both teams won opening games but Brazil have a slightly better goal difference having scored 6 to our 4, neither have conceded a goal.

Good luck

I wanted to suggest GB at 3-1

Should be a good game

Currently 1-0 to Team GB I believe.

[Karabiner]

I might have one for tomorrow at Goodwood, can't let the cat out of the bag just yet..