Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

You have put up some really good stuff on here Brent and run pretty -EV

Cheers mate, not long till footy and nfl at least 

Roll on!

We NEED the football back, Baseball is keeping us alive at the mo - just.

Tomorrow, I must comment on the Monthly numbers that Mere produced this morning. Ugh at the dough we have lost on Basketball.

[Bazzaboy]

I suggested earlier in the fred that we might see British boxers get favourable decisions during the Olympics. Well I've just seen a robbery. Joshua was given a lesson by Savon yet got the decision. Augurs well for fred's Stalker bet who is now 9/2, we got 6/1.

You did indeed, nice one Bazza.

When do we - Tom Stalker - next fight?

Saturday at 2130 against Manoj Kumar

[bobby1]

I know you like the hole in one stats Tony, there has been one hole in one at Firestone Country club since 2000 and that was in 2006 tho it is a top price 2/5 'no' this week.

[maldini32]

Shame the Uruguay to win the group tip didn't come in.

Especially as we got 6/4 and they went off in the Evens region.

I wasn't alone in my pro Uruguay thoughts either, all the shrewdies on twitter wanted to be with them and Red made them 7/2 for the tourn. They've been so disappointing, Cavani is apparently worth 30m? Hes played like a League Two striker at best. Their centre backs are supposedly world class, every single match there has been gap after gap after gap.

pfff

Gotta say I was in the pro Uruguay camp pre tournament. They had a very strong spine in Coates, Arevalo, Gomez, Cavani and Suarez but they just looked so flat in every game. I got on @ 9/1 and thought they had a real chance to get to at least semi's. Not getting out of the group was down to them having an absolute shocker.

Ah well my tenner on Mexico @ 18s is still alive.

We still golfing tomorrow even if it rains?

[tikay]

seattle to beat toronto @ 26/25 with bet 365 if you cant do with them then next price is even money with paddypower (I havent checked pinnacle as i gather you are not betting with them yet??)

seattle have 4 of there hitters who have been in very good form over there last 7 games, torontos hitter have been average over the last 7 games.

The reason seattle is over even money is because the opposing pitcher has won his last three games and been on form, but when you look into his stats over the last few game;
Villanueva's shift to a starting role has gone swimmingly so far. In three starts, he's 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 21 strikeouts. Walking as many opponents as he did in this one is not preferable, though, and he can't count on allowing eight baserunners and stranding all of them -- as he did in this game -- regularly.

Seattle pitcher, has pitcher two games in a row allowing 1 earned run, also against toronto this year he went 8 innings allowing 3 runs batted in which in not to bad.
Villuneva has only pitched out the bull pen against seattle this year so its hard to read into his stats against this team, but he has a average record

i suggest you go with caution and put 25quid on this one

 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
TOR  1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 3  7  0 
SEA  0 0 0 1 2 1 1 0 -  5  9  0 


Ledge does it AGAIN, another Baseball winner!

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 0730, Thursday August 2nd

LOSS on Month £89.00

Unsettled Bets £482.50

The spreadsheet is here.....

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=11

[tikay]

Daily Report as at 07.45 Thursday August 2nd

We placed three bets yesterday, & two of them won. And in total, we made £1 profit on those three. How do these things happen?

The three bets?

We had a "over 5.5 x 6's" in the EBC40 thing at Trent Bridge. It was a most odd game, it never really got going, & we were never off. With 5 overs of the 2nd innings remaining, we only had one 6 on the board, but suddenly Surrey hit 3 of them, but by then it was too late.

Meanwhile, Singheee continued his rampage, this time sticking up not one, but TWO winning Baseball bets, presumably to atone for his rare loser the previous night.

I dare not think how much one or two of the Elders are sticking on Singheees selections.

Fred is being a bit too nitty with them, probably, but after a long winning streak, there is always the temptation to up the stakes, coupled with the fear that you'd look pretty daft if the heater ended now.....Anyway, well done Ledge.

We also had two older bets come to fruition yesterday, both of them unsuccessfully.   

The first was on Uruguay in the Olympics, & there have been a few furrowed brows & hangdog expressions about Uruguay's inexplicable lack of fizz. Don't, forget it, move on, the bet was good, it just did not happen. Save your energy for the football season which is around the corner.

The other write-off was a tenner on a dog in the IGD which was given at 200/1 & backed at 150/1. It's the nature of throwing darts...... We still have 2 dogs in the IGD, & 2 dogs in the Puppy Derby @ Wimbledon.

Down the line, we shall have some losses to face when SPOTY comes around, but not much. We have backed Ainslie, Ennis & Greene, & laid Wiggins. It is all so obvious now......

[tikay]

What's coming up?

Phelps swims his Individual Medley tonight, Jaffa tipped him to win, so goooo Phelps!

I think that is all the action we have booked for today so far.

In Golf, the Bridgestone Invitational starts today, but we have no interest at present. The "hole in one or not" is not really viable this week, priced at 2/5 I gather. I guess we could Max it (£150) to win £60, but I'd want a really good recommend first. It does look nailed on, but 2/5 does not excite much, & I've no idea if that reps mathematical value.

There is some far more interesting Golf next week, when the PGA comes from Kiawah Island. That should be sick

The 2nd Test starts today, at that most wonderful of Test arenas, Headingley. We have no interest at present.

The West Indies - New Zealand 2nd Test also starts today.

Glorious Goodwood continues. Don't forget the Glorious, its apparently mandatory now.

Think thats it.

Note I shall NOT be Online from 6pm until Midnight this evening, so stick up any bets early please. Duty calls & all that.

I'm going to start upping the stakes on a few bets, think I'm being a bit too nitty, so recommend with care please.

[horseplayer]

great to wake up to another winner

well done sing

[hector62]

Golf

This week there are 2 events in the USA. Dr Noh is playing in the lesser of them and the field is so poor that he is 2nd favorite to win it and odds on to finish in the top 20. I wouldn't put anyone off backing him  but there is better value in the other tournament. 

WGC Bridgestone.

This comp has been won by Tiger on 7 occasions, so it's safe to assume that the ideal player is long off the tee, a good putter, black and has past marital problems.

Hunter Mahan is a long and accurate hitter and a good putter. He won this comp in 2010 and has won this season as well. He gets a lot of birdies and the weather forecast is for ideal conditions for the first 2 days.

Suggest £10 win @ general 25-1.

Rickie Fowler finished 2nd in this event last year. Fred was on him for the Open, in what was his first comp for a month, where he performed creditably without setting the course alight. He will be far more at home on this course and his game should be in better shape.

Suggest £10 win @ 30-1 Stan James.

In case you missed it.

[tikay]

Hector,

Thanks for reminding me, I clean forgot, sorry.

Will invest shortly.

I have some Internet access problems right now ( am in office, but using my ippy), but I will get both bets on, and will confirm later, when my internet is mended.

[tikay]

Golf

This week there are 2 events in the USA. Dr Noh is playing in the lesser of them and the field is so poor that he is 2nd favorite to win it and odds on to finish in the top 20. I wouldn't put anyone off backing him  but there is better value in the other tournament. 

WGC Bridgestone.

This comp has been won by Tiger on 7 occasions, so it's safe to assume that the ideal player is long off the tee, a good putter, black and has past marital problems.

Hunter Mahan is a long and accurate hitter and a good putter. He won this comp in 2010 and has won this season as well. He gets a lot of birdies and the weather forecast is for ideal conditions for the first 2 days.

Suggest £10 win @ general 25-1.

Rickie Fowler finished 2nd in this event last year. Fred was on him for the Open, in what was his first comp for a month, where he performed creditably without setting the course alight. He will be far more at home on this course and his game should be in better shape.

Suggest £10 win @ 30-1 Stan James.

Sorry I missed this hector, but we are safely on  now.

I have mended the internet.

We have £10 wins on Rickie Fowler, & Hunter Mahan. The prices are moving around, & I ended up getting the same price on each, 29 (28/1) with Betfair.

ON

Hunter MahanWinner    29 £10.00 £280.00
Bet Ref: 21257761812M Bet matched: 2012-08-02T08:23:31.000Z


Rickie FowlerWinner   
29   £10.00   £280.00
Bet Ref: 21257740922M Bet matched: 2012-08-02T08:19:55.000Z

[TightEnd]

The Headingley Test match

You have to go back 13 matches and 16 years before you find a draw on the Headingley record.

In all, there have been just two draws in the last 27 Tests at Headingley stretching back to some England win in 1981 that no-one can remember.

When conditions favour the bowlers, the game moves fast at Headingley.

In just the last six Tests in Leeds, teams have been dismissed in 33.1, 33.5, 52.3, 42.1, 37, 47.5 and 42 overs.

Yet both teams are available at 2-1+ to win this. The draw is the 11/8 favourite

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/england-v-south-africa/england-v-south-africa-tests/england-v-south-africa-%5B2nd-test%5D/winner

Why? Given the tendencies of the venue?

First the weather forecast is not ideal. There is likely to be rain on three of the five days.

But none of those days looks set to be washed out, and - at this venue perhaps more than any other - cloud cover is crucial to the balance of power between batsman and bowler.

One bad innings is often all it takes to lose a match even if rain does intervene along the way.

At The Oval, the draw traded 1-2 for a good while, on a pitch not helping the bowlers. SA still won, plenty can happen late in games with scoreboard pressure

The default option would appear to be South Africa at 2-1+, but they are inconsistent. They have won only eight of their last 18 Tests and have failed to win back-to-back games over that period.

With blue skies today,and the forecast worse for the weekend, I am thinking for the thread of recommending the team that wins the toss first and bats

The aim will be to oppose the draw throughout

[tikay]

All noted, Tighty.

1) The match starts at 11am.

2) What time will we know who won the Toss, & who bats first?

3) How are you proposing we bet this (betfair or traditional) & for how much?

Am happy to closely monitor the thread & pounce, but I need to know the above.

PS - Lovely preview, thank you.

[TightEnd]

All noted, Tighty.

1) The match starts at 11am.

2) What time will we know who won the Toss, & who bats first?

3) How are you proposing we bet this (betfair or traditional) & for how much?

Am happy to closely monitor the thread & pounce, but I need to know the above.

PS - Lovely preview, thank you.

toss around 10.30am

we'll get a look at the pitch then too

Thread did well on cricket last month, Amla and Sixes etc +£232, but this Test is not push the boat out stuff. The sides are essentially closely matched and there could be some mean reversion when its least expected...punters will expect SA to pile on but it is far from assured.

Small bets for an interest, only, traditional bookies should be fine depending on prices