Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Stat research is nicked, but interesting

The Premiership next manager to leave market (sacked, manager walk out)

Been a sustained move on Nigel Adkins today down to favourite

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/next-manager-to-leave-post

However this is generally not a market where the favourite pre-season comes in

In the last nine years, two favourites have come in (Hart. Curbishley)

Other prices of winners have been

12-1
12-1
12-1
16-1
20-1
25-1
33-1

So looking at this market, I wanted to look at the candidates and try to find those we can reasonably rule out even with a disappointing start

Adkins? Took them up, expectations are to stay up. Slow start season to be expected
Laudrup? New manager, patient board
Allardyce? Trigger happy and stupid board with a love of the headlines, a possibility but no value at 7-1
Clarke? New manager, patient board
Hughes? Lots of investment in team, board can be quick to act. A possibility
Di Matteo? Just won Champions League. Abramovich, so can't rule it out, but unlikely pre-Xmas
Pulis? Possibility with a disappointing start, no board track record of kneejerk though
McDermott? Board Happy to go up, expectations not inflated
Hughton? New manager, patient board
Martinez? Extremely patient chairman, could have sacked him when in bottom 3 each of last two seasons, didn't
Jol? Possibility with a slow start. Fayed. Dempsey and Dembele crucial this transfer window. Jol has one year left on his contract

and after that I saw no names that you could reasonably expect to be first eg AVB, Pardew, Wenger, Moyes, SAF, Rodgers

So, for discussion, my two against the field (Assume a slow disappointing start, assume trigger happy board) are QPR/Fulham

Defer thoughts on Hughes to The Camel

QPR's start

August 18: Swansea (H)

August 25: Norwich (A)

September 1: Man City (A)

September 15: Chelsea (H)

September 22: Tottenham (A)

September 29: West Ham (H)


Fulham...and Jol at 20-1 is interesting

Fulham's start

FULHAM fixtures for the 2012/13 Premier League season:

August

18 Norwich (H)

25 Man Utd (A)

September

1 West Ham (A)

15 West Brom (H)

22 Wigan (A)

29 Man City (H)




Thoughts?

[Tonji]

Re QPR & Hughes. My thoughts are the board are to not likely panic this season & stick with the manager.

[The Camel]

Disagree about the West Ham board being trigger happy.

They are alot of things bu trigger happy is not one of them imo.

Bhatia and Fernandes love Hughes. Very popular with the fans. Even if we start slowly, I think he has enough good will behind him to be around at Christmas. And by then someone will have gone. 12/1 pretty skinny.

Jol is a good shout at a big price.

I think Clarke is a definite runner too.

Hodgson a very hard act to follow, already reports of dressing room unrest and I'm not so sure about the patient board bit.

Also, there is a track record of long term number 2's lasting not very long when finally getting their chance in the hot seat.

8/1 not very big though.

[Karabiner]

AVB to retain his title in successive seasons?

[TightEnd]

Disagree about the West Ham board being trigger happy.

They are alot of things bu trigger happy is not one of them imo.

Bhatia and Fernandes love Hughes. Very popular with the fans. Even if we start slowly, I think he has enough good will behind him to be around at Christmas. And by then someone will have gone. 12/1 pretty skinny.

Jol is a good shout at a big price.

I think Clarke is a definite runner too.

Hodgson a very hard act to follow, already reports of dressing room unrest and I'm not so sure about the patient board bit.

Also, there is a track record of long term number 2's lasting not very long when finally getting their chance in the hot seat.

8/1 not very big though.

Do you generally see this sort of market as a "bookies benefit" given all the variables that affect the bet?

Sort of market you'd play?

Apologies to tikay in advance for a big disucssion on the merits of 15-20 candidates in this market

[The Camel]

Wenger a runner at 40/1?

He looked totally out of love with football at several points of last season.

RVP gone and Song likely to go, if Arsenal start slowly, the fans will really start to get on the clubs back.

[Tal]

AVB to retain his title in successive seasons?

Behave!

Mr Tikay! Sir Sir He's throwing pointed remarks near me again Sir!

[The Camel]

Disagree about the West Ham board being trigger happy.

They are alot of things bu trigger happy is not one of them imo.

Bhatia and Fernandes love Hughes. Very popular with the fans. Even if we start slowly, I think he has enough good will behind him to be around at Christmas. And by then someone will have gone. 12/1 pretty skinny.

Jol is a good shout at a big price.

I think Clarke is a definite runner too.

Hodgson a very hard act to follow, already reports of dressing room unrest and I'm not so sure about the patient board bit.

Also, there is a track record of long term number 2's lasting not very long when finally getting their chance in the hot seat.

8/1 not very big though.

Do you generally see this sort of market as a "bookies benefit" given all the variables that affect the bet?

Sort of market you'd play?

Apologies to tikay in advance for a big disucssion on the merits of 15-20 candidates in this market

Basically it's not a market I would play in unless I had some strong inside info.

Bookmakers love it because punters pile in blind every time a team loses 3 matches in a row.

[tikay]

No apology needed Tighty, I love all this stuff.

Incidentally, of all those names you listed, my immediate reaction was the same as Methuselah - AVB. He might just be the greatest, or he might just fall flat on his face. Again. The departure of Mr Modric must be a grievous blow too. It would only want one more big name to Bale out.....

[tikay]

AVB to retain his title in successive seasons?

Behave!

Mr Tikay! Sir Sir He's throwing pointed remarks near me again Sir!

He might just have a point with his pointers. Why not point your pointy things back at him? Works in chess, a bloke I know told me.

[Tal]

Wenger a runner at 40/1?

He looked totally out of love with football at several points of last season.

RVP gone and Song likely to go, if Arsenal start slowly, the fans will really start to get on the clubs back.

Fans won't be an issue. They never raise their voices. You can hear a pin drop there most weeks.

I can't see him being the first one to go, but 40-1 does seem like a big price, considering there's no standout obvious candidate.

[TightEnd]

Disagree about the West Ham board being trigger happy.

They are alot of things bu trigger happy is not one of them imo.

Bhatia and Fernandes love Hughes. Very popular with the fans. Even if we start slowly, I think he has enough good will behind him to be around at Christmas. And by then someone will have gone. 12/1 pretty skinny.

Jol is a good shout at a big price.

I think Clarke is a definite runner too.

Hodgson a very hard act to follow, already reports of dressing room unrest and I'm not so sure about the patient board bit.

Also, there is a track record of long term number 2's lasting not very long when finally getting their chance in the hot seat.

8/1 not very big though.

Do you generally see this sort of market as a "bookies benefit" given all the variables that affect the bet?

Sort of market you'd play?

Apologies to tikay in advance for a big disucssion on the merits of 15-20 candidates in this market

Basically it's not a market I would play in unless I had some strong inside info.

Bookmakers love it because punters pile in blind every time a team loses 3 matches in a row.

thank you

Back me up on Jol then

your thoughts on why he might be a runner?

[tikay]

Wenger a runner at 40/1?

He looked totally out of love with football at several points of last season.

RVP gone and Song likely to go, if Arsenal start slowly, the fans will really start to get on the clubs back.

Wenger? Arsene Wenger? The Arsenal manager?

Have you taken leave of your senses Keith?

Ralph, have a word, please. With added barby bits.

[Dubai]

No chance. Wont leave whilst in Champ League so therefore can never be first

[horseplayer]

personally i quite like what jol is doing the fulham squad and he has made some cracking signings from europe again

however i would agree the board there have more likelihood of reacting to a poorish start than most of the rest