Tips for Tikay

[rfgqqabc]

I've seen some pretty big moves in Asia in championship games, which would lead me to suspect prices can be wrong. Think i prefer Boro over Blackpool and Hudds but not going to bet any

[bobby1]

I am interested by the first goalscorer bet put up by Class but from a slightly different angle. If Cresswell plays up front then its obv value and should be backed but if Southend are having to play a centre half up front should we not be looking to bet Wycombe too?

I will also go on to say that Wycombe are one of our bogey teams - but I'm not confident enough to tip any kind of bet with this information.....use this at your own risk!


(Now watch Southend spank them 5-0, Cresswell scoring of course!!)

It s a brill spot mate and locality is deffo one of the areas that give a significant edge and this is a good example of why. I just wonder if circumstances have directed to one bet when it could easily be seen as a different bet. For example a Wycombe fan could have come on and said Southend have no fit strikers and are looking at putting a defender up front, lets get with Wycombe and in that case his locality leads us to betting Wycombe.

In truth there are probably two bets here, the first scorer/anytime scorer and Wycombe if Southend don't bring in any strikers. It feels strange to be wanting Wycombe to win but cheering on a Southend player scoring but they can both be winners. The question is are Wycombe value str8 up or on the Asian giving Southend's striker problems as well as Cresswell being value to score.

Its great input tho Class.

[Graham C]

When people mention Asian markets, I assume, given the context of them, they mean the markets for football matches from bookmakers based in Asia?   Where does one look to see these Asian markets?

[redarmi]

I've seen some pretty big moves in Asia in championship games, which would lead me to suspect prices can be wrong. Think i prefer Boro over Blackpool and Hudds but not going to bet any

Boro got injury problems.  Rhys Williams out for a couple of months although they are trying to bring in Andre Bikey and also Nicky Bailey out who is probably key now Barry Robson has left.  I have been to this game last couple of years and it is generally an over fixture and I quite like that again fwiw.

[redarmi]

When people mention Asian markets, I assume, given the context of them, they mean the markets for football matches from bookmakers based in Asia?   Where does one look to see these Asian markets?

www.sbobet.com probably your best bet.  Select Asian view and you get a long list.  Early market is any game at any point in the future.  Whilst the 3 way prices are prett accurate the Asian handicaps are the markets to focus on as that is where the moves happen first.

[bobby1]

When people mention Asian markets, I assume, given the context of them, they mean the markets for football matches from bookmakers based in Asia?   Where does one look to see these Asian markets?

hi mate


I used it to mean on the Asian handicaps but it will also be used to mean' the markets in Asia' as they are the lines that get batted into place first due to the weight of money punted out there, that in turn feeds thru to the European firms prices.

Sbobet and Pinnacle lines are good indicators of where the markets are moving.

edit. sorry, I posted without reading Red's reply.

[rfgqqabc]

I've seen some pretty big moves in Asia in championship games, which would lead me to suspect prices can be wrong. Think i prefer Boro over Blackpool and Hudds but not going to bet any

Boro got injury problems.  Rhys Williams out for a couple of months although they are trying to bring in Andre Bikey and also Nicky Bailey out who is probably key now Barry Robson has left.  I have been to this game last couple of years and it is generally an over fixture and I quite like that again fwiw.

As an aside, the season before last Betfred had a wonderful goals galore coupon, with both teams to score. At the start, virtually every game was on, and due to the fixed pricing of doubles and up, every game was 4/5. Unfortunately, they caught on before getting smashed to pieces, but each week people had 4/5 on a 4/6 shot, in 3-8 folds. Obscene value. They reintroduced trebles at 9/2, which was the price that season, but my dad is much more clued up about this, so I'll get him to post.

[redarmi]

I've seen some pretty big moves in Asia in championship games, which would lead me to suspect prices can be wrong. Think i prefer Boro over Blackpool and Hudds but not going to bet any

Boro got injury problems.  Rhys Williams out for a couple of months although they are trying to bring in Andre Bikey and also Nicky Bailey out who is probably key now Barry Robson has left.  I have been to this game last couple of years and it is generally an over fixture and I quite like that again fwiw.

As an aside, the season before last Betfred had a wonderful goals galore coupon, with both teams to score. At the start, virtually every game was on, and due to the fixed pricing of doubles and up, every game was 4/5. Unfortunately, they caught on before getting smashed to pieces, but each week people had 4/5 on a 4/6 shot, in 3-8 folds. Obscene value. They reintroduced trebles at 9/2, which was the price that season, but my dad is much more clued up about this, so I'll get him to post.

Gotta love Fred....absolutely clueless but gets away with it with a maximum bet of, erm, zero if you are smart enough to read and write.

[rfgqqabc]

I've seen some pretty big moves in Asia in championship games, which would lead me to suspect prices can be wrong. Think i prefer Boro over Blackpool and Hudds but not going to bet any

Boro got injury problems.  Rhys Williams out for a couple of months although they are trying to bring in Andre Bikey and also Nicky Bailey out who is probably key now Barry Robson has left.  I have been to this game last couple of years and it is generally an over fixture and I quite like that again fwiw.

As an aside, the season before last Betfred had a wonderful goals galore coupon, with both teams to score. At the start, virtually every game was on, and due to the fixed pricing of doubles and up, every game was 4/5. Unfortunately, they caught on before getting smashed to pieces, but each week people had 4/5 on a 4/6 shot, in 3-8 folds. Obscene value. They reintroduced trebles at 9/2, which was the price that season, but my dad is much more clued up about this, so I'll get him to post.

Gotta love Fred....absolutely clueless but gets away with it with a maximum bet of, erm, zero if you are smart enough to read and write.

Tbf i got them once with a 10 fold, it included a 97th min goal for Aldershot or Northampton lol. Had a quick look at the online coupon and will start pricing up. Found a stonker so far in Leicester vs Blackpool and got a few others in mind. Definitely will become a favourite Tikay, with great value trebles and absolute banzais.

As an aside, York vs Oxford. Bluesq are 10/11 both teams to score. This is too big, Spin have a goal line of 2.55 and a supremacy 0.1-0.3. Barnsley vs Bristol City have a goal line of 2.55 and a supremacy of -0.1-0.1 and are 4/5 best price both teams to score. Imo, despite the difference in supremacy, Bluesq price in the York game is still slightly too big. I'd expect it to go off at atleast 4/5. Stan are 4/5 stand out best in the Barnsley game, the rest of the firms 4/6 or 8/11.

Reccomend £44 @ 10/11 Bluesq, Both teams to score in the York Oxford game

[bobby1]

When people mention Asian markets, I assume, given the context of them, they mean the markets for football matches from bookmakers based in Asia?   Where does one look to see these Asian markets?

I hope you don't mind me going down memory lane here.

The big Asian punters used to take advantage of the rigidity in the big UK bookmakers pricing of football matches when singles on all games became available in about 2002. Not simply from a price point but from the outdated way the prices were formed, you did them on a Monday, so the shop coupons could be printed and available in shops from Weds. From there there was almost no way of changing prices down to team news or midweek results so you were just stuck with them. I always say the same thing, it was like pricing up the Epsom Derby( ok The Derby) on Monday and then leaving the prices available right up to the off time on Saturday without then being able to change the prices to allow for the ground/ draw/new info or mounts of big name jockeys. You would expect to lose money on every race if you had to do that.

What the big Asian punters/bookmakers mainly did in those days was arb between their market which flowed as it does now and the UK market which had badly outdated prices available all week. They didn't care who won most of the time as they would bet the 11/10 with you and lay at evens to their clients in Asia. Just as many people do on Betfair now. I really mean they didn't care who won because they would simply bet almost any amount you would let them have as it was 'free money' once they had played the bits in the middle. So many of the big 'punters' from then were not really punters but the earliest arbers.

I might have posted this before so sorry if its a repeat. My friend got the job of manning the Asian trading desk which was then in the Isle of Man( must have been tax reasons)  He moved over there at th back end of one week had a few days to get sorted out and trotted into work on the following Monday morning. The phone lines opend at 9 am and at 9.01 he gets a call from a guy who wants £250k on Arsenal to beat Newcastle in the FA cup final the following Saturday at 11/10, must have been prob 2000/2001 ish, mate gulps and rings it thru saying' mr so and so wants a qtr of a mill on Arsenal at 11/10'  the firm's  suits have made a decision to get as much of this Asian money in as they can so he gets the bet ok'd and we all gulp.

My mate goes back to the guy and says ' ok sir, you got a qtr of a million on Arsenal at 11/10 in the 90 minutes market in the Cup Final' the guy goes ' oh, really, thats brill  just give me a minute please' and goes off the line for a moment. What used to happen with tipping line followers and say Pricewise betters is they would ask for more than they wanted and expect to get knocked back to a smaller amount so my mate thinks this is what has happened and the guy now has 250k on when he might only have wanted 100.He is expecting something like' just give me a 100k instead please'

Anyway, the guy comes back on the phone and says' thats all great, so I got 250k at 11/0 on Arsenal right' , 'yes thats right'. There is then a load of clicking and chattering in the background and the guys says to him ' ok, can I have another qtr of a million at 11/10 too?'


Now this one gets knocked back because this system has been up and working for 1 minute and already we have a half million pound punter on the line but what had actually happened was in between taking the 250k at 11/10 with us and then coming back for more, he has already laid the whole lot off to his punters at evens. So its like a a tap dripping, he will just keep taking your price and arbing it back to his clients so that's why the Asian market is revered so highly because the money knocks it inot shape and if you are out of line with that market you would lay it for chunks. So nowadays the markets put up by European books are just mirrors of that market which is why you can use that market to exploit old prices that Uk firms leave out.

Getting on with UK bookmakers in shops was so lucrative to these Asian firms they sent people over and put them in The Ritz. Their job was to go around all the shops in London taking up as much of the arb price they could get on with us so it could be laid over in Asia. Multiply that thru all the other firms and then work out how much free money you are making and its fortunes over  seasons before the firms systems got better at changing shop prices to take into account all the info the Asian market had in its ever changing market.


Next  Chapter is ' How we did our money on the blind golfers British Open' if anyone is interested. ;o)

[bobby1]

I've seen some pretty big moves in Asia in championship games, which would lead me to suspect prices can be wrong. Think i prefer Boro over Blackpool and Hudds but not going to bet any

Boro got injury problems.  Rhys Williams out for a couple of months although they are trying to bring in Andre Bikey and also Nicky Bailey out who is probably key now Barry Robson has left.  I have been to this game last couple of years and it is generally an over fixture and I quite like that again fwiw.

As an aside, the season before last Betfred had a wonderful goals galore coupon, with both teams to score. At the start, virtually every game was on, and due to the fixed pricing of doubles and up, every game was 4/5. Unfortunately, they caught on before getting smashed to pieces, but each week people had 4/5 on a 4/6 shot, in 3-8 folds. Obscene value. They reintroduced trebles at 9/2, which was the price that season, but my dad is much more clued up about this, so I'll get him to post.

abs shows what can happen to some of these firms if they do it themselves, was abs madness that coupon. Must have cost him chunks

[rfgqqabc]

I've seen some pretty big moves in Asia in championship games, which would lead me to suspect prices can be wrong. Think i prefer Boro over Blackpool and Hudds but not going to bet any

Boro got injury problems.  Rhys Williams out for a couple of months although they are trying to bring in Andre Bikey and also Nicky Bailey out who is probably key now Barry Robson has left.  I have been to this game last couple of years and it is generally an over fixture and I quite like that again fwiw.

As an aside, the season before last Betfred had a wonderful goals galore coupon, with both teams to score. At the start, virtually every game was on, and due to the fixed pricing of doubles and up, every game was 4/5. Unfortunately, they caught on before getting smashed to pieces, but each week people had 4/5 on a 4/6 shot, in 3-8 folds. Obscene value. They reintroduced trebles at 9/2, which was the price that season, but my dad is much more clued up about this, so I'll get him to post.

abs shows what can happen to some of these firms if they do it themselves, was abs madness that coupon. Must have cost him chunks

Were a few half a mil lost tweets. Guy i ran bets for gave me 1% of stake in cash, but when it came to this coupon, i got 10% of any profits too, thats how good the value was!

[bobby1]

nice work that, was like having 1 start with Peterboro and then others most weeks too.

[redarmi]

Getting on with UK bookmakers in shops was so lucrative to these Asian firms they sent people over and put them in The Ritz. Their job was to go around all the shops in London taking up as much of the arb price they could get on with us so it could be laid over in Asia. Multiply that thru all the other firms and then work out how much free money you are making and its fortunes over  seasons before the firms systems got better at changing shop prices to take into account all the info the Asian market had in its ever changing market.

Funnily enough I think I was present on one of the first occasions this happened.  As a student I worked for Ladbrokes in their shops in Chinatown.  During the 1996 Euro Champs a punter walked into the shop and wrote out a bet for £150k on, i think, Germany a game and calmly walked up to the counter and gave it to me.  I rang it up as £150 (some punters would put the decimals after their bets and I guess I just missed that it didn't look right) and gave the guy his slip back and was a bit confused when he handed me a bag.  When I opened the bag I nearly nearly fainted and realised my mistake and had to sheepishly tell the punter I would have to ring the bet up.  He came back in a few times during those champs and eventually Ladbrokes set up a system which I manned whereby they could fax us bets from and we ended up with a few punters doing the same all faxing in huge bets into the back of a betting shop in chinatown because they wanted to deal with us because we had Cantonese speakers in the shops.  It was these guys that eventually taught me about Asian handicaps which directly led to me getting my first major break in the game with VC because I was probably one of the few people in the UK to understand what 3/4 ball meant in those days!!!

[Rubbish2407]

Connacht are now 10/11 at Boylesports so I guess they've seen the squad that's flying into Ireland for this match.