Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

Hi,

Long time thread stalker, first time poster. I have thoroughly enjoyed reading these pages over the past couple of months, and have managed to nick a few quid on a few of the selections. So I thought I would try and add something I see as being potentially a good investment.

I see golf has been profitable so far, and you seem to have plenty of knowledgeable golf posters (bobby1, hector etc). So I would be interested to hear your thoughts

Ryder Cup 2014 European Captain at Gleneagles -

With the ryder cup just round the corner, most ppls thoughts concern the event in Medinah in three weeks. But my attention was caught by a market for the euro captain for 2014 . This is normally announced around December 2012/January 2013, so it would mean tying up your money for a couple of months but I believe it may be worth it.

The selection will be Paul McGinley @ 2/1 with William Hill, Skybet are Evens (Only Two Firms betting on it).

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/2014-european-ryder-cup-captain

Reasons:

Paul has a strong ryder cup background, being a winning member of the european teams in '02, '04 and '06. Which included holing the winning putt at The Belfry in 2002. He has been the winning captain of the Seve Trophy (a team competition between GB&I and Europe) in both 2009 and 2011, widely accepted to have done an excellent job on both occasions with arguably weaker sides. The two previous Seve Trophy winning captains (Montgomerie and Faldo) both subsequently captained the European side in the Ryder Cup. Paul was a vice captain to Monty in 2010, and is fulfilling the role again in three weeks time (alongside Clarke, Bjorn and Jimenez).

The main reason of the bet is the weakness of his fellow potential captains, the betting(with WH) is a follows ;

McGinley 2/1 - Case made above
Monty 3/1 - Has strong ties to Gleneagles, but a wealth of potential captains in waiting(McG, Clarke, Bjorn, Lawrie, Jimenez) makes it highly unlikely he will be asked to repeat. Neither side has had a captain do the job more than once since Bernhard Gallagher in 1995. He has stated that he will only consider it, if approached.
Clarke 5/1 - Darren has been highly critical of Gleneagles in the past. Quotes including "It's unbelievable they chose to stage the 2014 Ryder Cup on this course," http://www.scotsman.com/sport/darren-clarke-unflinching-in-criticism-of-gleneagles-for-2014-ryder-cup-1-1754822). Darren's higher profile in the USA would make him the strong fav to be capt in 2016 at Hazelltine, he has also stated his intention to play the senior tour in the USA once he turns 50.
Lawrie 8/1 - Currently playing the best golf of his career, he is unlikely to want to jeopardise this by having the distraction of the captaincy. Also, has no experience in captaining team sides. Only such a short price because he is Scottish.
Bjorn 10/1 - A possibility, but a fairly controversial character and probably feels still able to make the team in 2014.
Jimenez 14/1 - Unlikely to be back-to-back Spanish Captains, plus has no captaining experience.
Olazabal 16/1 - May depend on how he does in Medinah, but like Monty, no repeat Cpt since 1995. Happy to rule out.
Lyle 14/1 - Not the worst outsider, as he has stated a few times about his desire to be the captain. Is Scottish, but is too out-of-sync with the current game and not sure he would be a popular choice.
Price 33/1 - Too low profile
Langer 40/1 - Done the job before, shown no desire
Westwood 40/1 - Worst price of all time, is in the process of moving to USA to try and improve his chances of that elusive major. Will not want the distraction. Should be 400/1
Torrance  66/1 - Done the job before
Woosnam 66/1 - Done the job before
Faldo 66/1 - Did a spectacularly bad job last time, no chance.

I rate McGinleys chance of getting the job at more like 65-75%, so this should be comfortably odds on.

Although tying up the money for a few months in not ideal, I think its worth it.

Recommend: £100 @ 2/1 Paul McGinley to be Ryder Cup Captain in 2014 with William Hill

I would be interested to see the thoughts of others?

no idea if its value but superb first post

[AceHighSuited]

I'd like to recommend a bet for this afternoon at Lingfield.  

I noted a horse that ran around a fortnight back and although it seemed to dwell at the start first time it done its best work towards the finish.  When I looked at the race yesterday I thought it would be around the 13/2 mark and was prepared to back it.  

It is as big as 9/1 at the moment with one or two firms and it wouldn't be the worse e/w bet in the world in a competitive maiden.  There are a few smart looking types ahead of my selection in the betting and I think we're getting a little bit of value at the price.  The stable hasn't had the best year but from the last 10 runs they have had one winner and 3 seconds.  

My selection is SPEEDFIT BOY 3:00 Lingfield. £25 e/w

4th having dwelt at start again and having to be scrubbed along early.

[Longy]

A pretty incredible story unravelling in the Vuelta today.

Contador has attacked on a relatively flat stage and is currently a minute+ (time checks are a bit murky) ahead of Rodriguez who is a group of 7/8 with Valverde.

This is virtually unheard of modern day Grand tour cycling. The only time I can remember is Induarain did this in the Tour de France in the 90's but that was early in the tour.

[bobby1]

Hi Fellaini,

Just looking down the list Monty would seem a very strong candidate given his ties to the course but it's not usually the done thing to have the job, give it up and then take it again. Clarke looks too short to me and I think Lyle has very little chance unless he can mend some bridges he has burnt over the years with the top brass. I think if he was going to get a turn he would have had it by now.

Bjorn has quite a bit of clout in the right circles and I think the point of  naming so many vice captains at the last few Ryder cups is to groom those guys for the top job. Ollie stepped up from vice captain at Celtic Manor so with this years vice captains being McGinley, Clarke, Bjorn and Jiminez they would be the 4 to concentrate on, at the prices I would say McGinley and Bjorn would be the best bets and the order of the next two would be Clarke and Jiminez tho I wouldnt back either at the current prices.

One thing to note is just check the market is paying out when the captain is announced and not 2014 when it is played ;o) and it 's possible that someone else could enter the calculations but it seems unlikely.

[hector62]

One of the few things I know about golf is that Bobby knows far more than me. I am currently investigating what price Dr Noh is to get in the next European Ryder cup team ( I think he may have a Scottish grand-parent ).

[Tonji]

A pretty incredible story unravelling in the Vuelta today.

Contador has attacked on a relatively flat stage and is currently a minute+ (time checks are a bit murky) ahead of Rodriguez who is a group of 7/8 with Valverde.

This is virtually unheard of modern day Grand tour cycling. The only time I can remember is Induarain did this in the Tour de France in the 90's but that was early in the tour.

Fear this is Puritos "bad day"

Contador looking back to his best  

[Doobs]

A pretty incredible story unravelling in the Vuelta today.

Contador has attacked on a relatively flat stage and is currently a minute+ (time checks are a bit murky) ahead of Rodriguez who is a group of 7/8 with Valverde.

This is virtually unheard of modern day Grand tour cycling. The only time I can remember is Induarain did this in the Tour de France in the 90's but that was early in the tour.

Fear this is Puritos "bad day"

Contador looking back to his best  

Contador 1.05 on betfair.  No prices quoted on his cleanliness.

[ACE2M]

Hi,

Long time thread stalker, first time poster. I have thoroughly enjoyed reading these pages over the past couple of months, and have managed to nick a few quid on a few of the selections. So I thought I would try and add something I see as being potentially a good investment.

I see golf has been profitable so far, and you seem to have plenty of knowledgeable golf posters (bobby1, hector etc). So I would be interested to hear your thoughts

Ryder Cup 2014 European Captain at Gleneagles -

With the ryder cup just round the corner, most ppls thoughts concern the event in Medinah in three weeks. But my attention was caught by a market for the euro captain for 2014 . This is normally announced around December 2012/January 2013, so it would mean tying up your money for a couple of months but I believe it may be worth it.

The selection will be Paul McGinley @ 2/1 with William Hill, Skybet are Evens (Only Two Firms betting on it).

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/2014-european-ryder-cup-captain

Reasons:

Paul has a strong ryder cup background, being a winning member of the european teams in '02, '04 and '06. Which included holing the winning putt at The Belfry in 2002. He has been the winning captain of the Seve Trophy (a team competition between GB&I and Europe) in both 2009 and 2011, widely accepted to have done an excellent job on both occasions with arguably weaker sides. The two previous Seve Trophy winning captains (Montgomerie and Faldo) both subsequently captained the European side in the Ryder Cup. Paul was a vice captain to Monty in 2010, and is fulfilling the role again in three weeks time (alongside Clarke, Bjorn and Jimenez).

The main reason of the bet is the weakness of his fellow potential captains, the betting(with WH) is a follows ;

McGinley 2/1 - Case made above
Monty 3/1 - Has strong ties to Gleneagles, but a wealth of potential captains in waiting(McG, Clarke, Bjorn, Lawrie, Jimenez) makes it highly unlikely he will be asked to repeat. Neither side has had a captain do the job more than once since Bernhard Gallagher in 1995. He has stated that he will only consider it, if approached.
Clarke 5/1 - Darren has been highly critical of Gleneagles in the past. Quotes including "It's unbelievable they chose to stage the 2014 Ryder Cup on this course," http://www.scotsman.com/sport/darren-clarke-unflinching-in-criticism-of-gleneagles-for-2014-ryder-cup-1-1754822). Darren's higher profile in the USA would make him the strong fav to be capt in 2016 at Hazelltine, he has also stated his intention to play the senior tour in the USA once he turns 50.
Lawrie 8/1 - Currently playing the best golf of his career, he is unlikely to want to jeopardise this by having the distraction of the captaincy. Also, has no experience in captaining team sides. Only such a short price because he is Scottish.
Bjorn 10/1 - A possibility, but a fairly controversial character and probably feels still able to make the team in 2014.
Jimenez 14/1 - Unlikely to be back-to-back Spanish Captains, plus has no captaining experience.
Olazabal 16/1 - May depend on how he does in Medinah, but like Monty, no repeat Cpt since 1995. Happy to rule out.
Lyle 14/1 - Not the worst outsider, as he has stated a few times about his desire to be the captain. Is Scottish, but is too out-of-sync with the current game and not sure he would be a popular choice.
Price 33/1 - Too low profile
Langer 40/1 - Done the job before, shown no desire
Westwood 40/1 - Worst price of all time, is in the process of moving to USA to try and improve his chances of that elusive major. Will not want the distraction. Should be 400/1
Torrance  66/1 - Done the job before
Woosnam 66/1 - Done the job before
Faldo 66/1 - Did a spectacularly bad job last time, no chance.

I rate McGinleys chance of getting the job at more like 65-75%, so this should be comfortably odds on.

Although tying up the money for a few months in not ideal, I think its worth it.

Recommend: £100 @ 2/1 Paul McGinley to be Ryder Cup Captain in 2014 with William Hill

I would be interested to see the thoughts of others?

McGinley is not well liked behind the scenes i've heard.

2/1 looks skinny to me anyway.

[Nico29]

Keeping Clary but wouldn't put anyone off trading out for a freebie obv.

Cover bet on Mike the Sitch @ 12-1 wouldn't be the worst idea either.

Totally this bar betting Sitch on betfair@17.5.

Guy has 1.3 million Twitter followers, 4 million likes on facebook compared to the next highest housemate's Twitter followers of Clary at 100k odd, others don't even seem to register in social media world which is def a factor to consider.

Obv mostly Americans but The Sitch does seem to have a very loyal following in the UK too.

Think JC will win and that Kemp is very short considering he's been like watching paint dry but having missed the value on Clary i'm having a few pennies on the occasional table too.

[Longy]

Contador wins the stage he only won by about 5 seconds from Valverde but Rodriguez was 2:37 down! This means it is now Contador who leads overall with Valverde 2nd and Rodriguez 3rd.

A terrible day for fred at the Vuelta, but it was pretty awesome to watch as a cycling fan. Contador might well be a cheat but he really is something else to watch, probably the most exciting rider to watch of the current generation.

[redarmi]

Relatively interesting bet I have had today which I think is worthy of consideration although would prefer input of others who know tennis better than me before a bet from Fred.

Sarah Erani and Roberta Vinci over 21 games @ 1.95 with Pinnacle.

These two are best friends and doubles partners and practise together every day so my thinking is that this could go a long way because they know each others games inside out.  They have played together five times with the last couple on clay going to Errani but she is a much better clay court player especially this season and vinci withdrew in the second set once.  I think their three meetings on hard courts are relevant of which two have gone to three sets and over the three there is an average of 24.66 games.  Seems a decent spot to me.

[Tonji]

Contador wins the stage he only won by about 5 seconds from Valverde but Rodriguez was 2:37 down! This means it is now Contador who leads overall with Valverde 2nd and Rodriguez 3rd.

A terrible day for fred at the Vuelta, but it was pretty awesome to watch as a cycling fan. Contador might well be a cheat but he really is something else to watch, probably the most exciting rider to watch of the current generation.

As Longy says an exciting stage. The peloton was smashed all over the road. Purito got isolated, & while suffering had no help from team mates.

A fascinating tactical battle. The best Grand Tour in many a year. Still 4 more stages to go but I think the war is over. I cant see anyway back for our hero.

Sweat over I fear 

  Purito, one of the good guys.

[The Camel]

Hi,

Long time thread stalker, first time poster. I have thoroughly enjoyed reading these pages over the past couple of months, and have managed to nick a few quid on a few of the selections. So I thought I would try and add something I see as being potentially a good investment.

I see golf has been profitable so far, and you seem to have plenty of knowledgeable golf posters (bobby1, hector etc). So I would be interested to hear your thoughts

Ryder Cup 2014 European Captain at Gleneagles -

With the ryder cup just round the corner, most ppls thoughts concern the event in Medinah in three weeks. But my attention was caught by a market for the euro captain for 2014 . This is normally announced around December 2012/January 2013, so it would mean tying up your money for a couple of months but I believe it may be worth it.

The selection will be Paul McGinley @ 2/1 with William Hill, Skybet are Evens (Only Two Firms betting on it).

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/ryder-cup/2014-european-ryder-cup-captain

Reasons:

Paul has a strong ryder cup background, being a winning member of the european teams in '02, '04 and '06. Which included holing the winning putt at The Belfry in 2002. He has been the winning captain of the Seve Trophy (a team competition between GB&I and Europe) in both 2009 and 2011, widely accepted to have done an excellent job on both occasions with arguably weaker sides. The two previous Seve Trophy winning captains (Montgomerie and Faldo) both subsequently captained the European side in the Ryder Cup. Paul was a vice captain to Monty in 2010, and is fulfilling the role again in three weeks time (alongside Clarke, Bjorn and Jimenez).

The main reason of the bet is the weakness of his fellow potential captains, the betting(with WH) is a follows ;

McGinley 2/1 - Case made above
Monty 3/1 - Has strong ties to Gleneagles, but a wealth of potential captains in waiting(McG, Clarke, Bjorn, Lawrie, Jimenez) makes it highly unlikely he will be asked to repeat. Neither side has had a captain do the job more than once since Bernhard Gallagher in 1995. He has stated that he will only consider it, if approached.
Clarke 5/1 - Darren has been highly critical of Gleneagles in the past. Quotes including "It's unbelievable they chose to stage the 2014 Ryder Cup on this course," http://www.scotsman.com/sport/darren-clarke-unflinching-in-criticism-of-gleneagles-for-2014-ryder-cup-1-1754822). Darren's higher profile in the USA would make him the strong fav to be capt in 2016 at Hazelltine, he has also stated his intention to play the senior tour in the USA once he turns 50.
Lawrie 8/1 - Currently playing the best golf of his career, he is unlikely to want to jeopardise this by having the distraction of the captaincy. Also, has no experience in captaining team sides. Only such a short price because he is Scottish.
Bjorn 10/1 - A possibility, but a fairly controversial character and probably feels still able to make the team in 2014.
Jimenez 14/1 - Unlikely to be back-to-back Spanish Captains, plus has no captaining experience.
Olazabal 16/1 - May depend on how he does in Medinah, but like Monty, no repeat Cpt since 1995. Happy to rule out.
Lyle 14/1 - Not the worst outsider, as he has stated a few times about his desire to be the captain. Is Scottish, but is too out-of-sync with the current game and not sure he would be a popular choice.
Price 33/1 - Too low profile
Langer 40/1 - Done the job before, shown no desire
Westwood 40/1 - Worst price of all time, is in the process of moving to USA to try and improve his chances of that elusive major. Will not want the distraction. Should be 400/1
Torrance  66/1 - Done the job before
Woosnam 66/1 - Done the job before
Faldo 66/1 - Did a spectacularly bad job last time, no chance.

I rate McGinleys chance of getting the job at more like 65-75%, so this should be comfortably odds on.

Although tying up the money for a few months in not ideal, I think its worth it.

Recommend: £100 @ 2/1 Paul McGinley to be Ryder Cup Captain in 2014 with William Hill

I would be interested to see the thoughts of others?

Great first post, welcome to Blonepoker.

Tieing up money for 2 years on a 2/1 shot?

Not much fun.

The arguments are fair, but the market looks wide open to me.

Lyle at 14/1 would be my guess up.

[The Camel]

Monty at 3/1 looks terribad value though.

Makes the whole market look attractive

[TightEnd]

Hi Fellaini85

When is the 2014 captain announced (going on previous Ryder Cup cycles)?

When would the bookies pay out, on that announcement?

I'll go and look and see how the captain is chosen myself, so no need to ask that...


Lyle is certainly not popular in PGA circles, too outspoken. Monty its been said above

It's how long the money's tied up for, I am interested in....



EDIT you say . This is normally announced around December 2012/January 2013, so it would mean tying up your money for a couple of months but I believe it may be worth it.

ok, not so long then