Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Just seen the Celtic starting XI Tikay, I think i would most definitely be against them now.  I think Neil Lennon has got this one very wrong.  I hope I am wrong as I have had a rather chunky bet for me on this one.  

Thanks.

OK, that's fine, we will stick with our little £20. Little and often is fine by me.

[smashedagain]

Of course maybe agree no value in EVS, but confident of result.

There is no value in getting on odds on shots, but we all do it at time to time.

Lol. Sort of knew I would regret sending that pm to get you back in here Aaron
Apologies to everyone else but it had been over a week

[kukushkin88]

Of course maybe agree no value in EVS, but confident of result.

There is no value in getting on odds on shots, but we all do it at time to time.

Lol. Sort of knew I would regret sending that pm to get you back in here Aaron
Apologies to everyone else but it had been over a week

On a slightly more serious note. Anybody who has any influence on Aaron should encourage him not to bet on anything for significant money (unless he is very rich and enjoys it very much). He shows no sign at all of thinking in the right way to be a profitable bettor.

[aaron1867]

Of course maybe agree no value in EVS, but confident of result.

There is no value in getting on odds on shots, but we all do it at time to time.

Lol. Sort of knew I would regret sending that pm to get you back in here Aaron
Apologies to everyone else but it had been over a week

On a slightly more serious note. Anybody who has any influence on Aaron should encourage him not to bet on anything for significant money (unless he is very rich and enjoys it very much). He shows no sign at all of thinking in the right way to be a profitable bettor.

I just don't think the price is neither here or there to be honest, open to discussion.

Also, I was going with regards to WH price, I am sure you can find slightly bigger elsewhere.

[kukushkin88]

Just putting it out there for discussion as it leapt off the page due to the gulf in class between the two teams but contradicts lots of the rules I use betting profitably on NFL. Green Bay -3 at Seattle getting 9/10 with Pinny. Seems like GB match up very favourably and are a very superior team.

[redarmi]

I don't think you should regret it Jase.  Aaron is welcome around here and he puts a bit of time in to his contributions but, without being patronising he quite a long way behind others in terms of his understanding of value and other key concepts required to be a winning punter.  In many ways that is good for the thread as it allows us to go back and explain in depth some key concepts but it becomes a tiny bit frustrating when we put the time in and then subsequent posts suggest Aaron hasn't taken anything written on board.....It is a bit like someone posting on PHA about a hand when they call a raise  in early position with KJ and every says that it is a clear fold pre and then the next day the same guy posts a hand where he has called a raise in middle  position with KTo.  It would be good, and potentially the threads biggest victory, to see some progress in Aarons thinking.

[horseplayer]

always good to get everybody's opinion on-board

[tikay]

Good constructive Post by reds.

For what it is worth, Aaron, I punted for 30 years, & my ONLY criteria was "will it/they win?", I never took any notice of the price.

This thread has taught me what "value" means, & as a result of all the Pros advice, the thread has won money - albeit quite small - over a 8 month period. Off thread, where I don't have to be so prudent, I have won a good deal more, simply by learning the importance of "value".

NO Tip or "recommend" is worth looking at unless it has a price included, & there is evidence that the price equates to value.

[Skippy]

Of course maybe agree no value in EVS, but confident of result.

There is no value in getting on odds on shots, but we all do it at time to time.

Lol. Sort of knew I would regret sending that pm to get you back in here Aaron
Apologies to everyone else but it had been over a week

On a slightly more serious note. Anybody who has any influence on Aaron should encourage him not to bet on anything for significant money (unless he is very rich and enjoys it very much). He shows no sign at all of thinking in the right way to be a profitable bettor.

I just don't think the price is neither here or there to be honest, open to discussion.

Also, I was going with regards to WH price, I am sure you can find slightly bigger elsewhere.

Aaron, here's what you need to do.

Take the odds of some event, let's say 2/1. What you need to do is add 1 to those odds (so 2+1 = 3), then do 1 divided by this new number (so 1/3 in our case), and multiply by 100. That gives the percentage that the bookmakers are saying that thing happens.

So in our example that's 2+1=3, then 1/3*100 = 33%

Let's do your example. You've said you think Sheffield Wednesday are a good bet at evens (1). So 1/(1+1)*100=50%. You should make a bet if you think that Sheffield Wednesday are going to win more than 50% of the time. You should not make a bet if you think that Sheffield Wednesday will win less than 50% of the time.

Imagine we could play that football match millions of times- we've got a time machine and we can watch the match once, rewind time, watch it again, rewind time, watch it once more millions of times. What % of times do you think Sheffield Wednesday will win this match?

(good Samaritan mode off)

[tikay]

Tonight's assumed/expected value for us is......

Celtic to beat Benfica, @ 31/10

Chelsea to beat Juve @ 6/4

Valencia to get more Booking Points than Bayern Munich @ 4/7.

Fingers crossed. I'll take any 2 from 3......

[horseplayer]

Tonight's assumed/expected value for us is......

Celtic to beat Benfica, @ 31/10

Chelsea to beat Juve @ 6/4

Valencia to get more Booking Points than Bayern Munich @ 4/7.

Fingers crossed. I'll take any 2 from 3......

will try and keep the bayern match updated on here

[tikay]

Thanks horsey, appreciated.

[BorntoBubble]

Good constructive Post by reds.

For what it is worth, Aaron, I punted for 30 years, & my ONLY criteria was "will it/they win?", I never took any notice of the price.

This thread has taught me what "value" means, & as a result of all the Pros advice, the thread has won money - albeit quite small - over a 8 month period. Off thread, where I don't have to be so prudent, I have won a good deal more, simply by learning the importance of "value".

NO Tip or "recommend" is worth looking at unless it has a price included, & there is evidence that the price equates to value.

very good point over the past few months i have made very few bets and i can caagorise them into two groups... Punts.. and bets for value. For me my punts will not be for more than £10 as this is my limit i not so bothered about price i look at a bet and think yes i think chelsea are going to win and im happy to win £15 back off my £10 bet. This may not be great value as the odds may not be great. Whereas my "value" bets may go up to 50-100 as i believe it is +EV therefore i am happy to bet more for example i layd this week everton.. after tips from the forum and i did it after Ba was named on the bench as i thought this was a better option for newcastle and it flew the odds in further. I am no betting expert hence why i have probably placed less than £1000 of bets in the past 6 months.

[BorntoBubble]

On the subject of value..

I myself have back agaisnt barca @1.09 on betfair as i am planning to lay this of after 30 minutes of the game.. Barcalona so far have scored before 30 minutes in 2 games out of 4 so far and i beleieve it will be harder for them to score early in champs league. Therefore i am predicting the price to drift to approx 1.20-1.25 after 30 minutes and then lay it off.

What is peoples view on bets like this in this thread with the wealth of knowledge in here and Tikay are you interested in bets like this as it is something i tend to look for more oftern Laying fav's at short prices.

[horseplayer]

bayern game is utter tripe at present