Tips for Tikay

[Horneris]

You can't bet Leeds Keith!

I know its very much swimming against the tide and the price looks big but 3 of our 4 midfielders are injured and Mccormack is out for a while who is everything for us creatively.

In midfield we have a 17 year old who tries but doesn't know what hes doing, Tonge who is beyond slow and shite, Varney who is not a footballer and an 18 year old who makes his debut. And Rodolph Austin who is the best player we've had in years.

[Horneris]

Varney not starting actually but we need Green and Norris back desperately, zero squad depth.

[The Camel]

You can't bet Leeds Keith!

I know its very much swimming against the tide and the price looks big but 3 of our 4 midfielders are injured and Mccormack is out for a while who is everything for us creatively.

In midfield we have a 17 year old who tries but doesn't know what hes doing, Tonge who is beyond slow and shite, Varney who is not a footballer and an 18 year old who makes his debut. And Rodolph Austin who is the best player we've had in years.

LOL just had almost exactly the same words texted to me from a different Leeds supporter.

Apart from adding "you're fucking insane" at the end.

In Warnock I trust.

[Jamier-Host]

I have been looking at the championship (football ) for a couple of years now and in particular the both teams to score
market. So far this season there has been an average of 3.07 goals p. match ( div 1 2.5 , div 2 2.64 ).

As far as both teams scoring... week 1 BTS 4 not 8 , then BTS 8 not 4, BTS 8 not 4, BTS 9 not 3, BTS 8 not 4 , BTS 9
not 3. That is an average of 64% but if you take out the 1st week where you could argue teams were more interested
in not losing than winning , then it jumps to 70%.

With nearly all the teams being so closely matched the distribution of possession , shots etc will also be similar.

Last season there were 2 or 3 teams I would not include. For example Forest , who didnt score in 19 games and Hull
who seemed a very defensive outfit. Both have new managers and look like they are playing a more expansive game
this year.

You could use a scattergun approach but I like the look of 3 matches , Derby , Sheff W and Leeds . Both teams to score 9-2 on the betfred bonus coupon. Recommend £20. One day the lots gonna come in  

Decided to have a punt on this but did it on the wrong (lesser odds) coupon by mistake. Noticed at 3pm on the dot but they said was too late to change and I wouldn't get auto upgraded to the better price. I was only given 7/2 despite it being an identical bet!

Didn't particularly want a massive argument in the shop - I guess will see if it wins before kicking up a fuss. Seems a no brainer to resolve or it's a terrible customer experience message. Like a shop knowingly having a product for sale at £10 and £15 on different shelves and forcing customer to pick up the right one...

[Horneris]

Camel knew!

[kpnuts]

Wolves 1-0

[Tal]

Chris Gayle is having some fun. 52 off 28 so far.

[AceHighSuited]

FMEL!  I had a bit of a dash on aways, and never saw the post by The Camel's post about swimming against the tide. 

I have a 7 team acca of villa, sunderland, fulham, cardiff, wolves, bolton, forrest. 

[scotty2hatty]

After UFC 151 was spectacularly cancelled, we have had to wait 6 weeks between UFC events. UFC 152 takes place tonight and features some excellent match-ups and one bet in particular stands out for me and is worthy of consideration for TfT.

The co-main event sees the flyweight title on the line for the first time ever and we should get treated to an excellent fight as Joseph Benavidez (16-2) of Team Alpha Male takes on Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson (15-2-1). The bookies are heavily favouring Benavidez (1/3) and that allows us to have an excellent value bet on Johnson. In my regular UFC betting article I advised Johnson at 12/5 but he must have seen a little support since with 9/4 the best price available with other firms shorter.

The fight is guaranteed to be close and I expected the two fighters to be priced much closer. If you were giving me even money either man, I would still take Johnson - to emphasise how good I think the price is.

My expectation is that the majority of the fight will take place in the striking department, an area I anticipate Johnson to have a slight edge. Johnson is the busier fighter, and in these fights where the expectation is that it will go the full 5 rounds (stoppages less frequent when you have two 9 stone men hitting each other) it is important to be active and to point score. I can't find the outright striking statistics but on significant strikes (of which the exact definition no one is really sure), Johnson lands 3.11 per minute to Benavidez's 2.84. Perhaps more significantly, Johnson has a strike accuracy of 49%, considerably higher than Benavidez's 32%. The defence stats are close, with both absorbing a similar amount. From the statisitics we can determine that Johnson throws more and lands more, which is of course an excellent combination.

Those statistics are no secret and Benavidez's gameplan may involve trying to take Johnson to the mat where he has had previous success with 8 career submission victories. However, getting close enough to take down the speedy Johnson will be a task in itself and even if he does, his takedown success is a poor 25% with Johnson's defence at 55%. In fact, I think we might see Johnson point score with the odd takedown of his own as he is an accomplished wrestler with a success rate of 54%.

The most likely outcome, in my opinion, is a Johnson victory by decision which is offered up at 9/2 with Bodog and was best price 16/5 (PP) when I wrote my article before Bodog offered their prices. SkyBet have since went 4/1.

I don't really know how to do the maths as to regards whether the 9/4 outright or 9/2 decision is the better price. Johnson has 6 of 15 wins by decision and 6 submission victories but I am ruling the submission victory out in this close fight. I'll suggest the outright price but hopefully someone can come in and explain the maths, maybe someone has experience with boxing markets which might be similar.

I suggest £20 @ 9/4 (Ladbrokes) Demetrious Johnson to defeat Joe Benavidez at UFC 152.

I've suggested a couple of other bets in my article if anyone fancies a sweat this evening: http://www.thefightlounge.co.uk/news/ufc-152-beat-the-bookmakers/

[Chompy]

Unfair challenge on Tongo Doumbia by Grant McCann results in a free kick. The referee books Mark Little for unsporting behaviour. Bakary Sako takes the free kick.

Lol, so standard, this guy is a disgrace.

[Jamier-Host]

You could use a scattergun approach but I like the look of 3 matches , Derby , Sheff W and Leeds . Both teams to score 9-2 on the betfred bonus coupon. Recommend £20. One day the lots gonna come in  

Decided to have a punt on this but did it on the wrong (lesser odds) coupon by mistake. Noticed at 3pm on the dot but they said was too late to change and I wouldn't get auto upgraded to the better price. I was only given 7/2 despite it being an identical bet!

Didn't particularly want a massive argument in the shop - I guess will see if it wins before kicking up a fuss. Seems a no brainer to resolve or it's a terrible customer experience message. Like a shop knowingly having a product for sale at £10 and £15 on different shelves and forcing customer to pick up the right one...

Argument time then. Nice tip sir - could still be a clean sweep this afternoon in that division.

[tikay]

Allotment duly sorted.

The shop is now open for bet placement. I'm on my ippy, so Bet Receipts will be abbreviated.

[tikay]

Scotty:

We have £20 with Ladbrokes @ 9/4 on Mr Johnson.

Thanks

ON

[horseplayer]

somebody suggested that there could be a clean sweep of bts to in the championship

very nearly

i made a rare visit to a shop earlier and had a silly bts 4 fold

managed to put the only game in without a goal

shrewd

quite how benkete didnt score earlier is beyond me and derbyshire has gone very close twice as well

arghhhh

[bookiebasher]

Waiting for Birmingham and Leics matches for 300-1