Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

What do we think of Wolcott to score against a shocking cov team tonight? Arsenal could put up a cricket score against them! He will surely start after only playing a handful of minutes this season so far and may even be chucked up front after the media reports earlier in the week. I've had a tickle on him to score 1, 2 and 3 goals.  He's 11-8 to score at anytime. Think he should be closer to evens.

Recommend Walcott to score in 90mins 40quid at 11-8 on betfred.

Has to be too short. 11/8? 

I know Cov are bad, so does everyone else

I know Walcott may play, and may play up front. So does everyone else

If Cov are that bad, lets look at the Arsenal team and find a less exposed play to score anytime at a less exposed price........

(cue hat-trick from Theo)

I would say that Walcott is highly unlikely to play as a lone striker as Giroud seems likely to start. I would also say that his public utterances about wanting a central striking role and that being at the heart of his not signing a new contract when we all know that it's purely money-related will not have given him any leverage with AW as to his actual playing position. The reverse is not impossible.

I reckon he will probably start tonight but on the right of a front three.

I'd rather be on Giroud @ 4/5 anytime than Walcott @ 11/8.

I must say, I lolled hard when Theo said "it is not money-related".

I'd lol even harder if he thinks he can beat AW at the mind-game lark. Good luck him.

[MajorMajor]

Fair enough. I was just putting it out there to get some feedback. I withdraw my recommend.

[tikay]

For those interested in tonight's League Cup action, the schedule & prices are here.....


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-cup


Some really lop-sides prices there, including one team quoted at 14/1 to win, 6/1 to draw.

[tikay]

Fair enough. I was just putting it out there to get some feedback. I withdraw my recommend.

You did excactly as we all want Major. Never be shy of sticking up ideas & suggestions, nobody will ever mock, or be rude.

[class]

Awaiting team news etc,

but why are West Brom 7/4 at home to beat Liverpool tonight?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-cup/west-brom-v-liverpool/winner

Why are Liverpool favourites?

Because the bookies still assume Liverpool are good! 7/4 looks quite generous considerng Liverpool will play the yoofs.

[DungBeetle]

Fair enough. I was just putting it out there to get some feedback. I withdraw my recommend.

Don't worry - my recommends get battered about from time to time also 

[tikay]

Fair enough. I was just putting it out there to get some feedback. I withdraw my recommend.

Don't worry - my recommends get battered about from time to time also 

No they don't! They get debated. BIG diff.

[Bad Beat]

wagon shunter=punter. It's derogatory in this context, suggesting that the punter is merely guessing and has no expert knowledge.

 I read back what I wrote this morning. I was getting a bit tired when I typed the last bits. I may not have made perfect sense.

 In essence I am saying that by definition we can't win if the bookmaker successfully puts up a line that splits the result. Our job as punters is to identify occasions where they deviate towards splitting the money. They may do this deliberately as they are busy charging the wagons a bad price and nobody is playing on the +ev side of the wager. They may do this to "green-up". They are nervous bean counters and they know they are "pissing away equity" but they aren't comfortable with risk. They may do this because they have no knowledge of the "true price" (one that splits the result) in this intance.

 In these liquid and massive markets that some people would say are unbeatable, these are the weaknesses which we can and must identify.

[hector62]

I loved the posts by Mr Badbeat. Does he really talk more than he writes?

I have a couple of questions for him, or anyone else that can shed some light.

In general are British bookies trying to have a balanced book on events or do they make a judgement and try and get with it?

Do the Asian/American bookies close down small winning accounts as much as the British seem to?

In smaller interest sports, say rugby league, is there a perceived expert among the bookies and if so do the others just wait for them to price it up and copy it ? If this is true for rugby league, who is it ?

TY Big Foot

[DungBeetle]

"No they don't! They get debated. BIG diff. "

Only joking!

[DungBeetle]

"In smaller interest sports, say rugby league, is there a perceived expert among the bookies and if so do the others just wait for them to price it up and copy it ? "

I've noticed that Spreadex generally always wait for Sporting Index to update their football season points spreads and then put their own up, with a few adjustments for teams they fancy (eg they are hot for Fleetwood in L2 so always go 1.5 points above Spin).

They often update your open positions in the background, so you can see they have moved, but they are rarely available to trade until Spin are up on their website.

[doubleup]

Problem with this bet, as I see it, doubleup is that for Europe to be value here they have to be more likely to win 2.5-1.5 than the USA based on the stats that you are quoting which given they are underdogs seems unlikely unless the likely results conform to some weird distribution.  Also a very small sample and based on Ryder Cups involving cases where Europe are favourites etc.

ok does anyone have any idea of the odds in these matches? If, in any given match, US were 40%, EU were 35% and the tie 25%, the odds would be 5.92 for EU 2.5-1.5 and 5.18 US 2.5 - 1.5.  2-2 incidentally would be 4.42 - highlighting the earlier value.

[DungBeetle]

Sunderland v Wigan on Saturday

Camel - following our chat, both teams made 5/6 changes last night (both winning).  Sunderland still available odds against at B365.  Odds-on most other places.  I've having a tickle.

Dung

[tikay]

I loved the posts by Mr Badbeat. Does he really talk more than he writes?I have a couple of questions for him, or anyone else that can shed some light.

In general are British bookies trying to have a balanced book on events or do they make a judgement and try and get with it?

Do the Asian/American bookies close down small winning accounts as much as the British seem to?

In smaller interest sports, say rugby league, is there a perceived expert among the bookies and if so do the others just wait for them to price it up and copy it ? If this is true for rugby league, who is it ?

TY Big Foot

Yes.

Once he starts, he never stops.

I told this tale before, but he came to my office recently for a 30 minute business meeting.

Before we began, I laid a bit of ground bait out by mentioning a bet, & Neil started telling me some betting tales. 4 hours later, we had still not got round to our business matter....

I told him he should do After-Dinner Speaking, he'd earn a fortune. If I knew a tenth of what he did in a specific area of expertise, I know I would.

He has his detractors of course, all high-profile peeps do, & he's not God, but he is a great teller of stories.

When he writes his book - & he will - it'll be a Best Seller. It will.

The Ice Cream Wagon - Spiffing Punting Tales

[anthonyl]

CMS confirmed as out for Saturday for Brighton. Dobbie might come in, but he is looking rather overweight and slow....