Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 1000, Sunday September 30th


PROFIT on Month £26.59


Unsettled Bets  - £569.70



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=12

[DungBeetle]

One for the speculative box.

About 15 years ago, Jim Smith was manager of Derby, and after a very mediocre first 10 games switched from 4-3-3 to 5-3-2 after buying Igor Stimac.  They won that day on the road, and ended up winning the league at a canter.

Wind forward and Watford yesterday switched from 4-3-3 to 5-3-2 with Fitz Hall making his first start.  They won 3-2 at high flying Huddersfield and according to reports ripped them to pieces in the 2nd half. 

Watford’s massive squad due to their Udinese link is well publicized, and Zola has struggled to work out how to put all the expensive pieces together.  They are only 6 points off top place due to inconsistent nature of the championship, but I think due to massive odds are worth taking a chance on.

In terms of players, Almuina, Doyley, Hall and Deeney are hardened English league pros and the rest are vast vat of young potential who have already been purchased for multi million pound deals by Udinese. In defence Neuton and Pudil.  In midfield Abdi, Chabalah (Chelsea’s best prospect) and Battochio.  Up front Vydra, Bia and Forestieri.  They also have swiss goal machine Geijo although he hasn’t been fit yet this season.

I am told Huddersfield couldn’t cope with Forestieri yesterday – an obvious exaggeration but in his native Argentina he was heralded as the next Messi.

At the odds on Betfair I think they are worth a speculative punt, as they are 50-1 with most other bookmakers.

Recommendation:  Back Watford to win Championship at 200-1 on Betfair.

[tikay]

 

Daily Report as @ 0945, Saturday September 29th

We made a loss of £180 yesterday.

9 bets completed, of which 8 lost……!

I’m not sure we did too much wrong, either. Lady Variance maybe had PMT, & gave us a bit of grief, but it happens, & it swings both ways.

Our losses were…..

Paul Lawrie, Ryder Cup Top European, £10

Brighton, football, £100

Barnsley, football, £50

St Helens, RL, £35

St Helens, RL, £5

Huddersfield, football, £20

New Zealand, T20WC, £20

Hull, football, £20

And our sole winner?

Walsall, £80. (Tighty).

That £80 came in VERY handy.

Really, my head is not in the sand, but I think all the bets were good value, we beat the price, & they looked decent. Just one of those days. Unfortunately, we look like facing a good deal more wrong ‘uns today, too, & we don’t have much by way of compensation to balance it out. Maybe some NFL bets will arrive & will get us out of it, or Doobsy's clever ruse will work.

No point in having a post-mortem, or working through it bet by bet, I genuinely think it was one of those days.

Tomorrow will be a better day. Probably. We just have to get through today first.

Click to see full-size image.

[horseplayer]

BET SUGGESTION

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/3525618/Awesome+Again+Stakes

GAME ON DUDE SANTA ANITA tommorow night

evens with hills is massive suggest £50

generally uk bookies are going 4-7 laddies go 4-5 and hills for some reason go evens

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/awesome-again-stakes

i would think on the us tote the horse will start 2-5

some background on horse if you dont no.

http://blogs.bettor.com/Game-on-Dude-is-the-expected-favourite-for-the-Awesome-Again-Stakes-a190508

did thread get on?

#    HORSE    JOCKEY    WIN    PLACE    SHOW
1    Game On Dude    R. Bejarano    £2.60    £2.20    £2.10
3    Nonios    M. Pedroza         £4.80    £3.00
7    Richard's Kid    G. Gomez              £2.80

http://www.drf.com/news/santa-anita-game-dude-dominates-awesome-again

wins at 1-5 on the tote hacks up by 4 lengths

one of bigger ricks in recent times the evens

Unfortunately not, horsey, I was too pre-occupied with the Ryder Cup & all our football matches.

Sorry.

I've missed a few this weekend, whilst all the Fred bets were losing, the ones I missed all seem to have got home. No moaning though, that's the nature of the beast.

never mind

have had a few pms from people who did which is nice, quite were hills got evens from is beyond me

[redsimon]

I think a lot of punters made big losses yesterday.

Do you still see the daily figures at the other place? Imagine the footy market must have been massively in their favour?

[Doobs]

Like the reasoning on the golf bets.  Looks good to me.

Have had a look around. Ladbrokes are 6/1 the tie in the first match, but are 3/1 in at least the bottom two.  They must be thinking the same way, so confident this is a good bet even if it loses.  3/1 is obviously miserly though!

[tikay]

a small contribution to this thread if i may. To keep a solid bookmaker on side, i.e not restrict you, you must give action on things they are NOT best priced about. When there is an account that always takes 365 prices when they are top price they just shut you down because they think either you are an arber or they just cba with your type of business. In short youve gotta give action to get it. If i want a cheeky £50 treble on the football ill do it with 365, if i wanna small punt ill do it with 365, if i wanna bet a horse and 365 are 1/2 a point smaller, i might bet it there. This way when there is a big coup lined up you can get on, instead of pissing off every online bookmaker and having to get on your toes down the bookies. Short term it will cost me, long term def the winning play when big things come around.

Morning Mr T, & yes, of course you may!

Very interesting post.

Do you really think the bookies have software systems which detect that sort of thing? Genuine question, not sarcy. I'm pretty sure they do not have a little man sitting there working though everyone's bet to see if they are shrewd.

Your view interests me because until I lapsed again erarlier this year, & pre my 10 or 12 year punting sabbatical, I never bothered with all this "must get the best price" thing, I just punted where it was most convenient. It seemed to me that it was a bit like poker, where some guys never stopped moaning about rake, or table charges, but happily made really dumb calls for 30 Bigs. Why worry?

Then this thread started, & every time I missed a price by even a sliver of a point, everyone got on my case big time, though, I hasten to add, in the very best of intent & spirit. And I don't just mean the pedants, or the typo police types who jump on even one wrong letter in an otherwise great 1,000 word Post, I'm talking hardened pro punters, even total degens who happily toss money around balla style, but would give me pain for missing an ounce of value.

Anyway, great to see you here, post more often please. I saw your NFL Acca the other night, you belong to an altogether different punting world to nits like me, but it's good to see how the other half live sometimes.

[tikay]

BET SUGGESTION

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/3525618/Awesome+Again+Stakes

GAME ON DUDE SANTA ANITA tommorow night

evens with hills is massive suggest £50

generally uk bookies are going 4-7 laddies go 4-5 and hills for some reason go evens

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/awesome-again-stakes

i would think on the us tote the horse will start 2-5

some background on horse if you dont no.

http://blogs.bettor.com/Game-on-Dude-is-the-expected-favourite-for-the-Awesome-Again-Stakes-a190508

did thread get on?

#    HORSE    JOCKEY    WIN    PLACE    SHOW
1    Game On Dude    R. Bejarano    £2.60    £2.20    £2.10
3    Nonios    M. Pedroza         £4.80    £3.00
7    Richard's Kid    G. Gomez              £2.80

http://www.drf.com/news/santa-anita-game-dude-dominates-awesome-again

wins at 1-5 on the tote hacks up by 4 lengths

one of bigger ricks in recent times the evens

Unfortunately not, horsey, I was too pre-occupied with the Ryder Cup & all our football matches.

Sorry.

I've missed a few this weekend, whilst all the Fred bets were losing, the ones I missed all seem to have got home. No moaning though, that's the nature of the beast.

never mind

have had a few pms from people who did which is nice, quite were hills got evens from is beyond me

ALWAYS nice when that happens. Well done you.

No idea how I missed it to be honest, I think my head was stuck up my arse, as I watched the Ryder Cup.

[tikay]

I think a lot of punters made big losses yesterday.

Do you still see the daily figures at the other place? Imagine the footy market must have been massively in their favour?

Seems to be the case, yes.

No, I've not seen any numbers yet, but from viewing the results, I think the bookies as a whole would have had a baddish day yesterday. Most of the accas (SO much of the business is on accas) would have run up on Barca, who got there with two late goals - that would have cost plenty.

[Simon Galloway]

Do you really think the bookies have software systems which detect that sort of thing? Genuine question, not sarcy. I'm pretty sure they do not have a little man sitting there working though everyone's bet to see if they are shrewd.

I don't know what internal systems they have in place, I guess other contributors will have the skinny on that.  But from my experience, several of the bookies I use (or have used ) will stand a decent bet when not BP and yet restrict to say £50 max (or some a monkey max liability) when they go solo on BP so they are definitely very much aware of when they are exposed in this way.

[smashedagain]

Do you really think the bookies have software systems which detect that sort of thing? Genuine question, not sarcy. I'm pretty sure they do not have a little man sitting there working though everyone's bet to see if they are shrewd.

I don't know what internal systems they have in place, I guess other contributors will have the skinny on that.  But from my experience, several of the bookies I use (or have used ) will stand a decent bet when not BP and yet restrict to say £50 max (or some a monkey max liability) when they go solo on BP so they are definitely very much aware of when they are exposed in this way.

Catherine is in Dublin but I am pretty sure she has mentioned this type of software before

[horseplayer]

BET SUGGESTION

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/3525618/Awesome+Again+Stakes

GAME ON DUDE SANTA ANITA tommorow night

evens with hills is massive suggest £50

generally uk bookies are going 4-7 laddies go 4-5 and hills for some reason go evens

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/awesome-again-stakes

i would think on the us tote the horse will start 2-5

some background on horse if you dont no.

http://blogs.bettor.com/Game-on-Dude-is-the-expected-favourite-for-the-Awesome-Again-Stakes-a190508

did thread get on?

#    HORSE    JOCKEY    WIN    PLACE    SHOW
1    Game On Dude    R. Bejarano    £2.60    £2.20    £2.10
3    Nonios    M. Pedroza         £4.80    £3.00
7    Richard's Kid    G. Gomez              £2.80

http://www.drf.com/news/santa-anita-game-dude-dominates-awesome-again

wins at 1-5 on the tote hacks up by 4 lengths

one of bigger ricks in recent times the evens

Unfortunately not, horsey, I was too pre-occupied with the Ryder Cup & all our football matches.

Sorry.

I've missed a few this weekend, whilst all the Fred bets were losing, the ones I missed all seem to have got home. No moaning though, that's the nature of the beast.

never mind

have had a few pms from people who did which is nice, quite were hills got evens from is beyond me

ALWAYS nice when that happens. Well done you.

No idea how I missed it to be honest, I think my head was stuck up my arse, as I watched the Ryder Cup.

you could have done what i did

go to sleep at 9pm with alarm set at 1am (race was a 1.38am start)

spend 30 mins trying to find a link to said race as link i usually use was down, find a radio! link at 1.35am fall asleep at what must have been 1.38am

wake up and find out result


happy

funny old game this

[Bad Beat]

 I'm not sure that it will happen and later in the day I am expecting to lay the ties in those later games. I know Brad who does the golf for Ladbrokes and I know he thinks that punters get carried away and the prices are too short, but he has gone very short prices in anticipation of money.

 I have bet the last three on Betfair at slightly shorter than SportingBet.

 If you can get on with SportingBet this is one where you should break one of your rules and do multiples Tikay. These bets are very much related contingencies.

 If the USA have won the cup they could all agree to turn around at the same time and just shake hands. It will vry likely happen to all these matches or none.

 I would suggest a double Tiger and Stricker's matches and four trebles the last four.

 I know you'll say you are already on and you don't like multiples but this is different.

[rfgqqabc]

I'm not sure that it will happen and later in the day I am expecting to lay the ties in those later games. I know Brad who does the golf for Ladbrokes and I know he thinks that punters get carried away and the prices are too short, but he has gone very short prices in anticipation of money.

 I have bet the last three on Betfair at slightly shorter than SportingBet.

 If you can get on with SportingBet this is one where you should break one of your rules and do multiples Tikay. These bets are very much related contingencies.

 If the USA have won the cup they could all agree to turn around at the same time and just shake hands. It will vry likely happen to all these matches or none.

 I would suggest a double Tiger and Stricker's matches and four trebles the last four.

 I know you'll say you are already on and you don't like multiples but this is different.

So related you can't do multiples with Sporting.

[horseplayer]

was going to say good luck getting a  multiple on with that firm