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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16509521 times)
DungBeetle
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« Reply #17475 on: October 03, 2012, 09:43:18 AM »

Why are Palace 11/8 at home to mediocre Burnely on Saturday?  Palace have just beaten Cardiff, Bolton and Wolves on the spin?

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« Reply #17476 on: October 03, 2012, 09:43:22 AM »

Tighty - did I read in the paper this morning that Leicester are thinking of sacking Pearson!???  Madness surely.  They have just won 4 in a row and playing really well now. 

Tell me it isn't true?

6 weeks ago definitely on the agenda.

Now? Would be even dafter, one of the daftest things in a canon of daft decisions going back for ever.

Problem is our Thai owners are clueless, bought it for a quick buck, wasted a lot of money, didn't get promoted and are in a hurry

Thus this stuff will always be around until or unless we are in the top flight.

One of the least edifying things about the club, owners, some fans is the sense of entitlement. We are definitely NOT entitled to have such smugness.

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TightEnd
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« Reply #17477 on: October 03, 2012, 09:44:32 AM »


Bet365 offered to lay me £0.50. (50p....), so I left it.

However, better news awaited - Stan James still go 25/1.

So I tried them, & they were prepared to lay me £0.40 (40p). Probably restrict my account, too if it came in.....

So I just decided to leave it.

Fine spot though Rich. What's that all about?

just a tip I had that he was the man. For 40p, you can't go wrong with such tips....
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DungBeetle
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« Reply #17478 on: October 03, 2012, 09:44:38 AM »

Also resurgent Peterboro 11/5 at home to off form Forest on Saturday?  Might be worth seeing how Forest go tonight first though.
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« Reply #17479 on: October 03, 2012, 09:46:46 AM »


somebody tipped my wink on this very early

have spent the last hour trying to get the 25-1 with stan james on 3 seperate accounts... amazingly there bet placement kept going wrong

funny that

suspended now
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tikay
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« Reply #17480 on: October 03, 2012, 09:46:57 AM »

Also resurgent Peterboro 11/5 at home to off form Forest on Saturday?  Might be worth seeing how Forest go tonight first though.

Might be worth asking our Peterborough Corry, Chompy, too. Oh, wait......
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« Reply #17481 on: October 03, 2012, 10:05:31 AM »

Peterborough been on a bad run since the start of the season till last Saturday
My mate had a grand on Peterborough to win and Leeds to win ridc price both won he picked up 20 k £
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DungBeetle
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« Reply #17482 on: October 03, 2012, 10:14:44 AM »

Credit to him for picking Peterboro to win at Hull - I wouldn't have had that in a million years.
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Matt.NFFC.
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« Reply #17483 on: October 03, 2012, 10:15:30 AM »

Wait till after tonight v Blackburn.....as stated a few pages ago, I do like Blackburn to score more than 1 goal against us tonight (6/4) I believe.

If it helps, we can't keep clean sheets (1 in 9) and we will be missing arguably our best midfielder and striker to suspension.

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« Reply #17484 on: October 03, 2012, 01:23:11 PM »

I quite like Man City@23/20 tonight.

I was sure that they would start at odds on for this match yet only Ladbrokes@10/11 seems close to what i'd have expected their price to be.

City have looked somewhat dicey defensively this season, yet they've had a few tough tests and Mancini's wish to tinker with the back line could mainly be to blame in the short term.

I doubt he'll mess around too much with the team tonight and with Aguerro coming back to full fitness, Tevez always very dangerous, numerous other threats all throughout their side, I believe they'll start thrashing a few hapless opponents soon enough and there's no reason that can't start tonight.

Dortmund certainly didn't pull up any trees in Europe last season, and although they beat Ajax 1-0 in matchday 1 at home and have started reasonably well in their own league this year, they are already 7 points adrift of leaders Bayern Munich after just 6 games. Munich themselves showed last night in defeat to a European minnow that perhaps it's not the strongest of German leagues right now.

Dortmond sold arguably their best player in Kagawa in the summer and look incapable of containing a City side with something to prove after both a shaky start to the league and a rather unfortunate, if brave loss in Madrid. Make no mistakes this is a huge game for the home side.

I believe the fact that the Germans won 5-0 at home this past weekend overshadows their own negatives. Much is expected of Lewandowski, yet Kompany at his best is more than capable of handling with ease far better players than the pole. In their last two away games in the league Dortmund have drawn one 3-3 and lost the other 3-2. Sounds like a defence that will struggle to contain the blue side of Manchester's attacking verve.

I thought about backing the over 2.5 goals market@9/10 in this match but find myself much more drawn to odds against quotes available on the home side.

I make them about a 5/6 chance yet they are 2.2 on the machine and 23/20 with betvictor and hills, that is fair value in my book.

I certainly think it's worth a £50 bet and would be interested to hear people's thoughts on this match.
« Last Edit: October 03, 2012, 01:24:46 PM by Nico29 » Logged
tikay
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« Reply #17485 on: October 03, 2012, 01:55:33 PM »

Thanks Dom, that's nicely proposed.

The23/20 (Betvictor) seems ool with everyone else, too, most are at Evens, with one or two odds-on.

I was having a look around this morning to see if I could find some value somewhere, &, learning from others, I now try & price the matches up BEFORE I go to Oddschecker. I had  Man City at around 8/11 in my mind (lol, hark at me.....), so I assumed I had misread the situation, & perhaps the Germen Gentlemen were better than I assumed.

Anyway, as you suggest, let's see what others think, even if it means we lose a smidgen of value by waiting.
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« Reply #17486 on: October 03, 2012, 02:11:03 PM »

I did the work. I wondered what the right spread was before I got onto Oddschecker

In Six Super-Eight matches at the Premadasa in Colombo in the T20WC, the boundaries totals per match were as follows

31

36

34

28

26

32

Mean a touch over 31 boundaries, including big hitters Australia in those games


The weather there is a bit mixed, the pitch is slow, the pitch goes low and dead.


The semi-final between Sri-Lanka and Pakistan could be low scoring

Both teams have quality spin options, both lack a bit of batting depth


So if we could go Under 34-35 boundaries, I think we'd be onto a good thing


I open oddschecker


Bugger, its priced correctly

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/international/twenty20-world-cup/sri-lanka-v-pakistan/total-boundaries

31.5 the over/under


Please don't be tempted to go on the overs. I think this could be a cagey one

posting now as I am travelling tomorrow when the game and conversation thereof will be germane.



There is though I think an advantage to the team batting first. Two even sides with similar strengths and it is difficult to chase here with pace off the ball

For those wanting a punt, back the side batting first after the toss.
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« Reply #17487 on: October 03, 2012, 02:14:26 PM »

Afternoon Mr Tikay. Hector's house is still a cake free zone and will remain so unless the Aussie smitters beat the West Indies on Friday. Tomorrow sees the start of the Alfred Dunhill links jobbie. 3 different courses and a pro-am to boot so I would want someone who has performed well before in this tournament. 3 years ago Rafael Cabrera-Bello finished 4th and he comes to the tournament in good form having finished 9th and 10th in his last 2 starts. He likes links golf, having finished 2nd in the Irish open this year. He is well worth backing with a couple of speculative cup cakes.

Recommend Cabrera-Bello £5 e/w @ 35-1 Boyles.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #17488 on: October 03, 2012, 02:22:00 PM »

Interesting article on Lewandowski, Dortmund's evolution as a CL team and tactics for tonight

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/19799241
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« Reply #17489 on: October 03, 2012, 02:35:33 PM »

Quite like Dortmund for tonight, no reason, Nico argues the case for City very well, just a feeling.
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