Tips for Tikay

[AceHighSuited]

I assume newcastles price this weekend will be wrong, let me tell ou why.

The bookies will overprice Sunderland because they havnt lost often this season and underprice Newcastle because of a slowish start.

Our whole core f our team comes from Krul/colocini, both are back fit.

The main thing is that Sunderland baby lost much but they've been fixkong awful long forward. As its a derby there fans will push for them to attack, they won't be comfortable and if we can hold them out Ben arfa and ba can really punish them on the break.

Im pretty sure this is one of the little things that bookmakers won't take into account but last year we murdered west brom in very similar circumstances all of our goals coming from against the run of play.

Newcastle just above 2/1 on Betfair, which suggests they have them close to even in ability.   Bookies adjust to current form slowly, so they aren't assuming Sunderland are the better team yet.

Quite an interesting game this, I think, & current form often goes out of the window in this one.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/sunderland-v-newcastle/winner

As the nipper is kipping, I have run some stats on the tikay hypothesis.

Since the advent of 3 points for a win, the two teams have met 22 times in the league.

There have been 6 home wins, 9 draws and 7 away wins.  This suggests that draws and away wins happen more than you'd expect.  Sunderland have only won 3 of those encounters.

When I took it back to the first world war, I got 84 results.  There were 36 home wins, 28 draws and 20 aways. Looking at these stats, I'd be less confident that the away wins happen more than you'd expect.  Sunderland won 22 of these games.  Pre the first world war Sunderland were the best side.

I wouldn't be rushing to back Sunderland.  I am not so confident in the away win stat. 

Draws just feel more likely in local derbies, and the teams feel closely matched right now.  The stats seem to back up my initial thoughts on local derbies, but I haven't got the time to run them all.

Anyway, Pinnacle are offering 12/5 the draw, and I am estimating the odds should be something like 2/1 or lower.

Of course these markets should be close to perfect and the big syndicates should have better models than the botched stats I have done above.  Regardless of this, I have spent some time on this, so feel the need to bet.  I have backed the draw at 2.4 on betfair as I am a creature of habit and can't be bothered opening a pinnacle account.  23/10 is available in a few spots for those that haven't got pinnacle or get stung for 5%/premium charge on betfair.

I have assumed that there is no real difference between Sunderland playing at Roker Park or the Stadium of Light and no difference between Newcastle playing at St James' Park and the Sports Direct Arena. 
 
FWIW If I run beyond the first world war, the stats aren't so compelling, but I just imagine the games were more one sided back then, maybe tikay can provide some reminiscences about this period to help us out?

Read an interesting stat the other day.

Sunderland have less shots on goal than any team in Europe's top 5 leagues. By far! They have had only 27, Sina are next lowest with 45.

If our theory about shots on goal being a major factor in what the major syndicates bet on, maybe they will be looking to get with the Toon here.

Might be worth investing in this now Tikay, watching the Scotland game and Steven Fletcher might have an injury.  He's just received ome treatment but is limping gingerly still, I think he is the only Sunderland player to have scored a league goal. 

[TightEnd]

Montenegro 1 up at Half time.....

[77dave]

Any opinions on the tigers v Yankees baseball tonight?

[TightEnd]

Montenegro 1 up at Half time.....

and they win 1-0

The right idea, I suppose

[Tal]

Gabriel Clarke interviews Hodgson. "Roy in all your years in football, have you ever known a night like this?!" "Well yes actually. In 1987, Malmo played Ajax and it snowed unexpectedly very heavily"  Such a good answer.

[TightEnd]

Any opinions on the tigers v Yankees baseball tonight?

I've been watching the ALCS

The Yankees are severely injury hit and furthermore in no sort of hitting form

The Tigers qualified for the play offs late and have a lot of momentum. The pitching is especially strong


Not done the work on tonight's game on its own, but would expect the World series to be the Tigers v probably the Cardinals

Its all about who is in form at the end of a long season

[TightEnd]

Gabriel Clarke interviews Hodgson. "Roy in all your years in football, have you ever known a night like this?!" "Well yes actually. In 1987, Malmo played Ajax and it snowed unexpectedly very heavily"  Such a good answer.

was brilliant

Clarke actually went "oh" mid answer and went to pull his mike away

ITV's 60 minute fill wasn't exactly the standard of Aggers/Johnners or tikay either

[TightEnd]

Calling bobby1


Beyonce gets the Superbowl Half time gig


Madonna last year was where this all began!

[horseplayer]

Gabriel Clarke interviews Hodgson. "Roy in all your years in football, have you ever known a night like this?!" "Well yes actually. In 1987, Malmo played Ajax and it snowed unexpectedly very heavily"  Such a good answer.

was brilliant

Clarke actually went "oh" mid answer and went to pull his mike away

ITV's 60 minute fill wasn't exactly the standard of Aggers/Johnners or tikay either

why was clarke fuming so much?

its hardly a famine or anything significant had a right go at the refs bloke who basically told him to get stuffed in a nice way

[bobby1]

Calling bobby1


Beyonce gets the Superbowl Half time gig


Madonna last year was where this all began!

haha, lets hope the Pats get there and decide to kick after winning the toss and Dubai gets the low down on Miss Bootylicious' choice of head wear Rich.

[youthnkzR]

N Ireland @ 8/1 in play vs portugal... currently 1-0 up

[Tal]

Foxtrot right Oscar!!!

Awful awful idea. Best thing about Beyonce is Jay-Z but I can't have that at the Superbowl.

It is the only time that it's barely tolerable to have overblown rootin-tootin, flag wafting, star-spangled apple pie snorkling Yankism on TV, which made Bruce Springsteen watchable.

Black Eyed Peas could have been the worst moment in TV since Sam Fox and Mick Fleetwood.

At the Brits, that was. Sam Fox has yet to do the Superbowl AFAIK. Yet.

[Tal]

Getting ready to announce the Booker Prize winner...

BBC News Channel.

[Tal]

Permission to say "Damn" at an obscene volume?



Hilary Mantel won, BTW. She has now won for the first and second books in her trilogy based on Thomas Cromwell. She recognised in her acceptance speech that there will be some considerable interest in the - as yet unwritten - denouement.

[david3103]

Foxtrot right Oscar!!!

Awful awful idea. Best thing about Beyonce is Jay-Z

You're looking from the wrong angle...