Tips for Tikay

[bobby1]

That was quite spooky Mr K

[tikay]

Lions at the Bears, Monday Night Football

The Lions average 25 points a game, but concede more than that

Plenty of receiving firepower, but a patchwork secondary

The Bears average 30 points a game, but concede well under 20 on average

More receiving firepower than previous years, and a top notch defense

Spread is Chicago -6.5

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/detroit-lions-at-chicago-bears/point-spread

Points total quoted at 47

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/detroit-lions-at-chicago-bears/total-points

Views please

Overs?


I was struck by the Brandon Marshall market. Being the Bears number 1 receiver

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/detroit-lions-at-chicago-bears/total-receiving-yds-brandon-marshall

The Lions were down to two healthy cornerbacks at the end of last week, have signed one off the street and might start a rookie

http://sidelionreport.com/2012/10/22/detroit-lions-secondary-will-have-a-lot-of-moving-parts-against-bears/

Marshall averaging 99.5 ypg this season

http://www.nfl.com/player/brandonmarshall/2495893/careerstats

and quoted at that for this, despite coming up against weakened opponents

Mileage in the Marshall overs?

(assuming the Chicago OL keeps Cutler protected against Suh, Avril etc)

Think I'll leave the possible "Overs" bet, given the weather.

I'm interested in the Marshall Receiving yards, but am struggling to see what is the best line.


http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/detroit-lions-at-chicago-bears/total-receiving-yds-brandon-marshall

For example, which is the better value?......

Over 92.5 @ 5/6

Over 94.5 @ 10/11

Over 100.5 @ Evens

At time of Post, all three (& several others besides) are quoted.


The 92.5 line looks best to me. Educate me Victor, educate me.....

[TightEnd]

Bad weather would count against receiving yards too. If the degenerate in you insists, go for the lowest pivot point on the overs,  but it sounds mire like a watching brief  given your on the spot info

[tikay]

Bad weather would count against receiving yards too. If the degenerate in you insists, go for the lowest pivot point on the overs,  but it sounds mire like a watching brief  given your on the spot info

Good point, why did that not occur to me?

My inner degenerate is firmly under control tonight. We shall give the game a miss.

[Doobs]

Lions at the Bears, Monday Night Football

The Lions average 25 points a game, but concede more than that

Plenty of receiving firepower, but a patchwork secondary

The Bears average 30 points a game, but concede well under 20 on average

More receiving firepower than previous years, and a top notch defense

Spread is Chicago -6.5

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/detroit-lions-at-chicago-bears/point-spread

Points total quoted at 47

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/detroit-lions-at-chicago-bears/total-points

Views please

Overs?


I was struck by the Brandon Marshall market. Being the Bears number 1 receiver

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/detroit-lions-at-chicago-bears/total-receiving-yds-brandon-marshall

The Lions were down to two healthy cornerbacks at the end of last week, have signed one off the street and might start a rookie

http://sidelionreport.com/2012/10/22/detroit-lions-secondary-will-have-a-lot-of-moving-parts-against-bears/

Marshall averaging 99.5 ypg this season

http://www.nfl.com/player/brandonmarshall/2495893/careerstats

and quoted at that for this, despite coming up against weakened opponents

Mileage in the Marshall overs?

(assuming the Chicago OL keeps Cutler protected against Suh, Avril etc)

Think I'll leave the possible "Overs" bet, given the weather.

I'm interested in the Marshall Receiving yards, but am struggling to see what is the best line.


http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/detroit-lions-at-chicago-bears/total-receiving-yds-brandon-marshall

For example, which is the better value?......

Over 92.5 @ 5/6

Over 94.5 @ 10/11

Over 100.5 @ Evens

At time of Post, all three (& several others besides) are quoted.


The 92.5 line looks best to me. Educate me Victor, educate me.....

Not that it is relevant anymore, as you aren't betting, but over 94.5 at 10/11 looks to be clearly the best bet.  10/11 is roughly mid way between 5/6 and evens.  96.5 is mid way between 92.5 and 100.5.  So 92.5 @ 5/6, 96.5 @ 10/11, and 100.5 at evens all seem roughly consistent with each other.   

So the fact we get an extra 2 yards means I would definitely take the 94.5 at 10/11.

As an aside I was going to put up Edgar David's Barnet at 7/2 to beat a poor Wycombe side, but the price has come in from 7/2 to 3/1 since lunchtime. 

You may have missed it, but Davids joined thred favourite Barnet as joint manager.  First match was a trend following 4-1 defeat.  He decided to play himself the other day, and not only did they win 4-0, but he was man of the match!

If you want the 3/1 for tomorrow, you will have to be quick.  The 3/1 has gone on betfair and skybet, though I just got on with blue square.
 



   

[Bad Beat]

 Total is now heading towards 45. Thanks to Bobbyjo for the info.

[Bad Beat]

 The game closed at 44. I find it funny how the market can still offer this kind of value. Several hundred thousand people probably had this weather information, possily millions but the 44s never cropped up until the pictures came on TV.

 It shows how the markets that people think are 100% efficient can offer value.

 

[tikay]

The game closed at 44. I find it funny how the market can still offer this kind of value. Several hundred thousand people probably had this weather information, possily millions but the 44s never cropped up until the pictures came on TV.

 It shows how the markets that people think are 100% efficient can offer value.

 

Incredible.

 

[tikay]

PS to that Chicago game......

The final score was 13-7 to the Bears, & Marshall received 81 yards.

We dodged good.

 

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 0850, Tuesday October 23rd (covers two days)

LOSS on Month = £507.00

Unsettled Bets  - £297.50




https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=13

[tikay]

Daily Report as at 0915, Tuesday October 23rd

We made a £37 profit over the 2 days. Yup, P R O F I T.

Only 3 bets, one was a “push”, effectively void, we had one loser, but Doobsy rode to the rescue with research going back nearly 100 years & spotted the value in the Sunderland – Newcastle draw. Happy days.

We planned to do some NFL stuff last night, but some news from our on-the-spot Corry changed the circumstances, & we decided to give the game a miss. Dodging a loser can be better than a win sometimes.

There was no Monday Night Football as we know it last night, but instead Sky Sports covered the Speedway Elite Final, where Swindon crushed Poole despite being huge dogs.     

I was AWOL yesterday, apologies, hopefully I can catch up with everything today. So much can happen in 48 hours.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

NOT a Tip, but an observation, a curiosity, a reality check.

Tonight, in the Champions League, Scotland's finest (officially) face Spain's finest.

Barca are 1/10, Celtic 33/1.




http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league
 

[hector62]

Morning Mr Tikay. Time for positive mental attitude and expect the recovery to start today, and we also have Dr Noh back this weekend to help. If I had to pick a batsman to score a 50 to save my life I would expect my choice to be different to anyone elses on this thread. Today my choice plays for the Titans in the world 3B cricket in South Africa. In the 3 matches the Titans have played so far he has obliged me by top scoring in them all. My man is Mr Jacques Rudolph and what he achieved at Yorkshire when he played there was nothing short of outstanding considering so many of his games were played at the seamer friendly Headingly. He scores quickly and he opens the batting. He is in fantastic form and he realises that the team is hugely dependent on him.

I am sorry not to have put him up in Fred before, I am blaming it on that owl for making me sleep deprived.

Recommend JR to top score for Titans v Delhi £20 @ 13/5 Blue Square.

[tikay]

Lions at the Bears, Monday Night Football

The Lions average 25 points a game, but concede more than that

Plenty of receiving firepower, but a patchwork secondary

The Bears average 30 points a game, but concede well under 20 on average

More receiving firepower than previous years, and a top notch defense

Spread is Chicago -6.5

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/detroit-lions-at-chicago-bears/point-spread

Points total quoted at 47

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/detroit-lions-at-chicago-bears/total-points

Views please

Overs?


I was struck by the Brandon Marshall market. Being the Bears number 1 receiver

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/detroit-lions-at-chicago-bears/total-receiving-yds-brandon-marshall

The Lions were down to two healthy cornerbacks at the end of last week, have signed one off the street and might start a rookie

http://sidelionreport.com/2012/10/22/detroit-lions-secondary-will-have-a-lot-of-moving-parts-against-bears/

Marshall averaging 99.5 ypg this season

http://www.nfl.com/player/brandonmarshall/2495893/careerstats

and quoted at that for this, despite coming up against weakened opponents

Mileage in the Marshall overs?

(assuming the Chicago OL keeps Cutler protected against Suh, Avril etc)

Think I'll leave the possible "Overs" bet, given the weather.

I'm interested in the Marshall Receiving yards, but am struggling to see what is the best line.


http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/detroit-lions-at-chicago-bears/total-receiving-yds-brandon-marshall

For example, which is the better value?......

Over 92.5 @ 5/6

Over 94.5 @ 10/11

Over 100.5 @ Evens

At time of Post, all three (& several others besides) are quoted.


The 92.5 line looks best to me. Educate me Victor, educate me.....

Not that it is relevant anymore, as you aren't betting, but over 94.5 at 10/11 looks to be clearly the best bet.  10/11 is roughly mid way between 5/6 and evens.  96.5 is mid way between 92.5 and 100.5.  So 92.5 @ 5/6, 96.5 @ 10/11, and 100.5 at evens all seem roughly consistent with each other.    

So the fact we get an extra 2 yards means I would definitely take the 94.5 at 10/11.

As an aside I was going to put up Edgar David's Barnet at 7/2 to beat a poor Wycombe side, but the price has come in from 7/2 to 3/1 since lunchtime.  

You may have missed it, but Davids joined thred favourite Barnet as joint manager.  First match was a trend following 4-1 defeat.  He decided to play himself the other day, and not only did they win 4-0, but he was man of the match!

If you want the 3/1 for tomorrow, you will have to be quick.  The 3/1 has gone on betfair and skybet, though I just got on with blue square.
 



  

Thanks Doobs.

We have £25 @ 3/1 with Betfred, Barnet to win.

When Mr Davids signed for Barnet, it looked like the same old same old thing, we see it so often. I was intrigued, though, after the last game, when he seemed to grab it by the scruff of the neck & almost single-handedly do the business. Maybe this one is different. I hope so, as I rather enjoy watching the man.



ON


Wycombe v Barnet
Match Betting
 Barnet 3/1  
Total stake £ 25.00
Estimated return £ 100.00

Full stake £ 25.00
Full estimated return £ 100.00

[horseplayer]

Lions at the Bears, Monday Night Football

The Lions average 25 points a game, but concede more than that

Plenty of receiving firepower, but a patchwork secondary

The Bears average 30 points a game, but concede well under 20 on average

More receiving firepower than previous years, and a top notch defense

Spread is Chicago -6.5

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/detroit-lions-at-chicago-bears/point-spread

Points total quoted at 47

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/detroit-lions-at-chicago-bears/total-points

Views please

Overs?


I was struck by the Brandon Marshall market. Being the Bears number 1 receiver

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/detroit-lions-at-chicago-bears/total-receiving-yds-brandon-marshall

The Lions were down to two healthy cornerbacks at the end of last week, have signed one off the street and might start a rookie

http://sidelionreport.com/2012/10/22/detroit-lions-secondary-will-have-a-lot-of-moving-parts-against-bears/

Marshall averaging 99.5 ypg this season

http://www.nfl.com/player/brandonmarshall/2495893/careerstats

and quoted at that for this, despite coming up against weakened opponents

Mileage in the Marshall overs?

(assuming the Chicago OL keeps Cutler protected against Suh, Avril etc)

Think I'll leave the possible "Overs" bet, given the weather.

I'm interested in the Marshall Receiving yards, but am struggling to see what is the best line.


http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/detroit-lions-at-chicago-bears/total-receiving-yds-brandon-marshall

For example, which is the better value?......

Over 92.5 @ 5/6

Over 94.5 @ 10/11

Over 100.5 @ Evens

At time of Post, all three (& several others besides) are quoted.


The 92.5 line looks best to me. Educate me Victor, educate me.....

Not that it is relevant anymore, as you aren't betting, but over 94.5 at 10/11 looks to be clearly the best bet.  10/11 is roughly mid way between 5/6 and evens.  96.5 is mid way between 92.5 and 100.5.  So 92.5 @ 5/6, 96.5 @ 10/11, and 100.5 at evens all seem roughly consistent with each other.    

So the fact we get an extra 2 yards means I would definitely take the 94.5 at 10/11.

As an aside I was going to put up Edgar David's Barnet at 7/2 to beat a poor Wycombe side, but the price has come in from 7/2 to 3/1 since lunchtime.  

You may have missed it, but Davids joined thred favourite Barnet as joint manager.  First match was a trend following 4-1 defeat.  He decided to play himself the other day, and not only did they win 4-0, but he was man of the match!

If you want the 3/1 for tomorrow, you will have to be quick.  The 3/1 has gone on betfair and skybet, though I just got on with blue square.
 



  

Thanks Doobs.

We have £25 @ 3/1 with Betfred, Barnet to win.

When Mr Davids signed for Barnet, it looked like the same old same old thing, we see it so often. I was intrigued, though, after the last game, when he seemed to grab it by the scruff of the neck & almost single-handedly do the business. Maybe this one is different. I hope so, as I rather enjoy watching the man.



ON


Wycombe v Barnet
Match Betting
 Barnet 3/1  
Total stake £ 25.00
Estimated return £ 100.00

Full stake £ 25.00
Full estimated return £ 100.00

i did not doubt his motives more rather if he had any petrol left in the tank, having seen him at palace a while ago he frankly wasnt very good and often it isnt as easy as some think for a former world class player to make an impact in a lower league.

good start though