Tips for Tikay

[The Camel]

I had no opinion on Messis price. Just if its 1.33 to lay on bf and you can take 1.67 and only lose 3.5% on the win part, its just a must bet. No need to look into it, the maths just dictates that you win everytime you place the bet.

If the thread could only have one bet a day for the rest of eternity and it was this each day then it would make plenty. It is a good example of Dubai knowing the mechanics of the bet and knowing it is wrong, esp in the place parts when Barca are 1/10.

If the thread could have only one bet a day for the rest of eternity and it was the place only part of this bet at 1.67 when Barca are 1/10 then Tikay would have retired (again) by now and be rubbing his head between tiddies all day.

From what I've heard he does this regardless of how much money he's currently in possession of.

[AndrewT]

bobby raised another good point

i wasnt aware (probably still not) just how many people follow bets on this thread

a fairly niche bet i put up a little while ago has rendered a previously decent account useless i can only imagine for whatever reason a fairly large amount of people followed said bet.

Is there a way of making the thread "members" only? (no idea if this is possible or wanted just putting it out there)

Not at all trying to make it a secret club but it is easy enough to register to this forum

Er, Tikay's charging me £10 a week to read this thread - he's doing the same for all of you, right?

Right?

[bobby1]

I had no opinion on Messis price. Just if its 1.33 to lay on bf and you can take 1.67 and only lose 3.5% on the win part, its just a must bet. No need to look into it, the maths just dictates that you win everytime you place the bet.

If the thread could only have one bet a day for the rest of eternity and it was this each day then it would make plenty. It is a good example of Dubai knowing the mechanics of the bet and knowing it is wrong, esp in the place parts when Barca are 1/10.

If the thread could have only one bet a day for the rest of eternity and it was the place only part of this bet at 1.67 when Barca are 1/10 then Tikay would have retired (again) by now and be rubbing his head between tiddies all day.

From what I've heard he does this regardless of how much money he's currently in possession of.

pics or it doesn't happen ;o)

[bobby1]

One other thing I have seen a little of too that maybe needs thinking about. I think there are some good footy posters and someone like Rickbfa (apologies if that isn't quite right) makes some really good posts regarding football matches and one thing he does is talk about what price he made the selection he is giving. He is going thru the process of pricing games up himself and then finding games he thinks there might be an edge, what these tend to be tho are what Andrew T mentioned as hidden edges ie outside the league tables/current small run of results. The problem then is the bets don't always get placed because the feedback from some is along the lines of

'but team A have been bad at home tho and team B won 2-1 last week at so and so' , this then gets agreed with but for the same reasons. He will know all of that already tho but he has put a value on those results in the price he comes up with and the reasoning why he thinks the price might be a bet. So the guys that have done the work and understand what form lines are over rated get their bets left off because some that don't understand that process have given it the thumbs down.

[AceHighSuited]

I'm not sure I agree with that post Bobby, I concede you will know more than me when it comes to pricing up football but I think to rule out previous head to heads, league positions etc is folly.  I'm not saying they haven't been factored into the price but how heavily weighted are they?

Last night for example, I was opposed to Dubai's bet on Messi to score simply due to his goal scoring record against British teams in past champions league matches.  I took it that Dubai had done the math and thought the price was incorrect, I'm not sure he factored in history or indeed that the odds compilers did? Because invariably Messi is the same price to score in every other game.  With the exception of v Real Madrid.  I laid quite a bit at 1.33 on Betty, I never came on here dissing Dubai's bet though as we clearly looked at it in different ways.  

I would agree that a lot of posters simply look at league positions, but there are people on here who are local to the action and they seem to get hold of bits and bobs that no doubt the compilers aren't aware of.  

Personally, I think there has to be a cut off time for bets rather than a template.  Some bets are rushed due to time constraints and some are just random punts without any thought, those are the selections that need to be weeded out imo.  Unless there is anything specific we find out late in the day I think we should be trying to place our bets earlier and have a discussion surrounding the selections.  There used to be a fair bit of discussion earlier in the thread but that by and large has stopped.  

The bolded bit is just so ridiculous.

Does Lionel Messi wake up on a matchday when he's playing Arsenal, Chelsea or Celtic and think "oooh, I am facing Gary Cahill / Carl Jenkinson / Bodo fucking Balde (delete as appropriate) tonight, they are just so much better than German, Italian, Dutch defenders I really don't fancy it tonight"?

The price he is to score is purely a derivative of the amount of goals Barca are expected to score in the match.

Last night Barca were 1/10 to win. And expected to score around 4 goals. If they are expected to score 4 goals, Messi to score sounds like a 1/3 shot to me.

This thread, used to be required reading, there was so much good stuff.

Now, possibly because it's a victim of it's own success or possibly because it's on a losing run and the bickering has started, I hardly ever look here.

You won your bet, well done, buy yourself a lollipop.

But it wasn't value unless 1/10 Barca to beat Celtic was a great lay.

Take a look at the last 500 goals Barca have scored in matches where Messi has played.

Randomly pick a sequence of 4 goals. (goals 224-227 for example)

Would you lay 1.67 Messi scored one of those 4 goals?

I don't disagree with the maths aspect of things, maybe I am wrong but I am basing my opinion on what I have actually seen with my own eyes.  

In games against British teams, I think I am correct in saying Messi has scored 0 goals apart from a game against Arsenal when he punished them.  Even his performances tend to drop, now I don't know the reason for that perhaps he just doesn't fancy it when he comes up against a big centre half who wouldn't think twice about clattering him.  Perhaps its the way our coaches set up teams.  I really don't know the answer.  

Similarly if you had to ask me who the best player in the world was I'd say Messi, hands down.  If you said to me best player you have ever seen in the flesh then Messi doesn't even make my top 5.  I have had the pleasure to watch Barca in action, actually in the stadium about 8 or 9 times.    Sample size and all that, so thats hardly indicative but its how I form my opinion.  

Your point about this thread previously being a must read etc and how you no longer post in it is ool imo, you were the creator of this thread and there are people on here who take your word as gospel and follow you with blind faith when you post selections.  I think given how you see the thread has gone off track you should be one of the people bringing it back to how you foreseen it in your original post.  

I have learned lots from the thread and although I still have my mug bets and random punts I have cut back on these considerably from information I have picked up on here, that is not to say its still not a leak but if I am having a random gamble I now stick to something between £5 - £25 and I am far more selective of bets that I am having serious (£50 - £250 for me)  sums on.  

I know Tikay is all for keeping it friendly on here and cutting back on trolling and baiting etc but if guys like yourself are put off posting due to  the thread going off line perhaps some sharper words are needed to be had with posters who you think are de-railing this thread.  

[tikay]

I'll try & work through some of the feedback. It's excellent, but there are some criteria which not everyone will be aware of, but it has to be catered for.

[AceHighSuited]

One other thing I have seen a little of too that maybe needs thinking about. I think there are some good footy posters and someone like Rickbfa (apologies if that isn't quite right) makes some really good posts regarding football matches and one thing he does is talk about what price he made the selection he is giving. He is going thru the process of pricing games up himself and then finding games he thinks there might be an edge, what these tend to be tho are what Andrew T mentioned as hidden edges ie outside the league tables/current small run of results. The problem then is the bets don't always get placed because the feedback from some is along the lines of

'but team A have been bad at home tho and team B won 2-1 last week at so and so' , this then gets agreed with but for the same reasons. He will know all of that already tho but he has put a value on those results in the price he comes up with and the reasoning why he thinks the price might be a bet. So the guys that have done the work and understand what form lines are over rated get their bets left off because some that don't understand that process have given it the thumbs down.

This is a good post, and thanks for your other posts also Bobby.  

Some things are certainly becoming clearer reading some replies today.  

I echo the call also for members only viewing this thread I think that would be a good step.  But that is not to say that those gathering intelligence for the enemy won't be able to sign up.

When I first posted I mentioned that I worked for a small online operation, I don't get involved in the technical stuff tbh I am mostly the gopher and just  do the customer service side of stuff and any ad-hoc duties when required.  The reason I first looked in here was I received an e-mail from a customer asking for a price on a market we weren't offering and he mentioned he had  read it on a forum so I then started googling and I found myself here and since then I spend quite a bit of time on here, I would be surprised if many of our customer base read here but there are one or two.  

[redarmi]

I have thought about the idea of members only etc before but ultimately it isn't manageable.  If you are talking about trying to stop bookies looking at it then at least 5, maybe more of the best posters here all work for or have strong links to bookies (including myself).  i would love it to be private because I think people like Keith, Brent, Dubai, advfn, Bad Beat etc would all open up more if they thought we were just talking amongst ourselves.  That said we are probably being a bit overparanoid.  Yeah the more esoteric stuff will move but bets on NFL sides and totals, Champs league hcaps etc won't.

[The Camel]

I'm not sure I agree with that post Bobby, I concede you will know more than me when it comes to pricing up football but I think to rule out previous head to heads, league positions etc is folly.  I'm not saying they haven't been factored into the price but how heavily weighted are they?

Last night for example, I was opposed to Dubai's bet on Messi to score simply due to his goal scoring record against British teams in past champions league matches.  I took it that Dubai had done the math and thought the price was incorrect, I'm not sure he factored in history or indeed that the odds compilers did? Because invariably Messi is the same price to score in every other game.  With the exception of v Real Madrid.  I laid quite a bit at 1.33 on Betty, I never came on here dissing Dubai's bet though as we clearly looked at it in different ways.  

I would agree that a lot of posters simply look at league positions, but there are people on here who are local to the action and they seem to get hold of bits and bobs that no doubt the compilers aren't aware of.  

Personally, I think there has to be a cut off time for bets rather than a template.  Some bets are rushed due to time constraints and some are just random punts without any thought, those are the selections that need to be weeded out imo.  Unless there is anything specific we find out late in the day I think we should be trying to place our bets earlier and have a discussion surrounding the selections.  There used to be a fair bit of discussion earlier in the thread but that by and large has stopped.  

The bolded bit is just so ridiculous.

Does Lionel Messi wake up on a matchday when he's playing Arsenal, Chelsea or Celtic and think "oooh, I am facing Gary Cahill / Carl Jenkinson / Bodo fucking Balde (delete as appropriate) tonight, they are just so much better than German, Italian, Dutch defenders I really don't fancy it tonight"?

The price he is to score is purely a derivative of the amount of goals Barca are expected to score in the match.

Last night Barca were 1/10 to win. And expected to score around 4 goals. If they are expected to score 4 goals, Messi to score sounds like a 1/3 shot to me.

This thread, used to be required reading, there was so much good stuff.

Now, possibly because it's a victim of it's own success or possibly because it's on a losing run and the bickering has started, I hardly ever look here.

You won your bet, well done, buy yourself a lollipop.

But it wasn't value unless 1/10 Barca to beat Celtic was a great lay.

Take a look at the last 500 goals Barca have scored in matches where Messi has played.

Randomly pick a sequence of 4 goals. (goals 224-227 for example)

Would you lay 1.67 Messi scored one of those 4 goals?

I don't disagree with the maths aspect of things, maybe I am wrong but I am basing my opinion on what I have actually seen with my own eyes.  

In games against British teams, I think I am correct in saying Messi has scored 0 goals apart from a game against Arsenal when he punished them.  Even his performances tend to drop, now I don't know the reason for that perhaps he just doesn't fancy it when he comes up against a big centre half who wouldn't think twice about clattering him.  Perhaps its the way our coaches set up teams.  I really don't know the answer.  

Similarly if you had to ask me who the best player in the world was I'd say Messi, hands down.  If you said to me best player you have ever seen in the flesh then Messi doesn't even make my top 5.  I have had the pleasure to watch Barca in action, actually in the stadium about 8 or 9 times.    Sample size and all that, so thats hardly indicative but its how I form my opinion.  

Your point about this thread previously being a must read etc and how you no longer post in it is ool imo, you were the creator of this thread and there are people on here who take your word as gospel and follow you with blind faith when you post selections.  I think given how you see the thread has gone off track you should be one of the people bringing it back to how you foreseen it in your original post.  

I have learned lots from the thread and although I still have my mug bets and random punts I have cut back on these considerably from information I have picked up on here, that is not to say its still not a leak but if I am having a random gamble I now stick to something between £5 - £25 and I am far more selective of bets that I am having serious (£50 - £250 for me)  sums on.  

I know Tikay is all for keeping it friendly on here and cutting back on trolling and baiting etc but if guys like yourself are put off posting due to  the thread going off line perhaps some sharper words are needed to be had with posters who you think are de-railing this thread.  

Give me one good reason why Messi not having a great scoring record against British teams isn't purely variance.

(Obviously he would be slightly less likely to score against English teams than those of other countries, because Barca will be a bigger price in those games than against virtually any other team except Real).

[bobby1]

There are some good points there Ace. The level of postings  deffo have to be encouraged because we all benefit from each other highlighting spots that might be of interest but I have probably only backed 5-7 things put up on this thread by other people but my knowledge of some things has got much better because I have read about them on here. It has become apparent that Tal and Ace2m are v v clued up about cycling for instance. I don't like watching the stuff myself because it isn't something I have a lot of understanding about but if ever the day comes that they both agree that some cycling bet is a v v big price and we should be on I will be lining up the bets. In fact it would probably be difficult to get a better read on an event than the SPOTY  Ace had all those months ago yet most of us just couldn't see it at he time.

Same with Neil's NFL stuff, just reading about splitting the money etc and just how he thinks lines are exploitable and why has made a big difference.

[DungBeetle]

I'm going to sound like a wimp but the thread has developed a bit of a nasty edge the last few days.  I assume comments are aimed at all people who have ever posted a result in a match preview (and I certainly have).  

I feel like I don't have the confidence to post any more (unless I have a Watford nugget) but will continue to read with interest.  Good luck all!

Dung

[tikay]

The sheer popularity of the Thread is almost self-defeating.

Camel says he does not Post or read as much these days, & gives 2 possible reasons. A third exists - the sheer volime of Posts. It's not always easy, or desirable, to have to wade through 5 or 6 pages a day. But that's the price of it being popular.

The "squabbling" was referred to - this has only happened in the last few days really. We won't allow it to continue. There are other threads & Forums for that, we don't need it.

Not all Posts are on-topic, either. That is not going to change. I want the Thread to be fun, enjoyable, & something which people use as a must-read thread.

How popular ("busy" might be a better word) is the Thread?

Broadly speaking......

It generates around 12.5% to 15% of ALL Posts on blonde.

It is the busiest thread on blonde, measured by activity.

The overall blonde Post-Count has increased 10% in the 12 months to September, & 19% in the 6 months to September. Fred currently accounts for a good deal of that.

Tighty & I have respnsibilities beyond this thread, & they include trying to make blonde a better & more popoular Forum, & increasing the Post-Count. This helps us to keep our Sponsor, who in turn finance the whole thing, or almost so. If we suffer a drop in Posts, & therefore lose our Sponsor, one of the by-products is that Flushy loses his investment in blonde, & I know many of you lay awake at night & worry about Flushy's money.

So yes, there is some off-topic stuff, & at least two of us deliberately stimulate debate sometimes, to encourage more interaction.

The thread ends up eating itself though. 

[tikay]

I'm going to sound like a wimp but the thread has developed a bit of a nasty edge the last few days.  I assume comments are aimed at all people who have ever posted a result in a match preview (and I certainly have).  

I feel like I don't have the confidence to post any more (unless I have a Watford nugget) but will continue to read with interest.  Good luck all!

Dung

Don't be daft, keep stuff coming, but some of the points by Bobby & others ARE well-made. They are not "nasty" or "edgey" though, they are intended constructively, & they are NOT aimed at anyone in particular. We are trying to better ourselves as punters, sometimes that is painful, or bruises our ego. Assuming we have one.

The point about "X United have not won this fixture for the last 36 years" has been made several times, even by me. In my case, I just cant grsap it's relevance, & I still can't.

[Horneris]

I have thought about the idea of members only etc before but ultimately it isn't manageable.  If you are talking about trying to stop bookies looking at it then at least 5, maybe more of the best posters here all work for or have strong links to bookies (including myself).  i would love it to be private because I think people like Keith, Brent, Dubai, advfn, Bad Beat etc would all open up more if they thought we were just talking amongst ourselves.  That said we are probably being a bit overparanoid.  Yeah the more esoteric stuff will move but bets on NFL sides and totals, Champs league hcaps etc won't.

This is true, I do a lot of my best work on early football prices and have concerns about putting them up after VC-gate (when Camel did this by tipping Brighton and Barnsley at huge prices and people kept coming on saying they had followed the bets and received an e-mail about account closure straight after). I guess this may be bookmaker dependent but it has to be a worry.

[The Camel]

The aims of this thread as I see it:

1. Making money
2. Having a bit of banter
3. Learning stuff
4. Debating the merits of a particular bet

What isn't about:

1. Making selections which you think will win regardless of price.
2. Aftertiming
3. Bickering

I think in recent days/weeks the thread has moved from one camp towards the other.