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[The Camel]

Anyone got any thought on the dortmund - madrid game? Just seen madrids back line..ramos varane pepe and essien. Looks vulnerable to the high pressing style of dortmund. Dortmund 12/5 ftw, thoughts?

I have no view really but wouldn't the back four be more of a reason to bet overs than Dortmund?

Yes true. Id just seen the team news and thought of ways to take advantage. When The total goals quote was 3.15 which meant the overs were around 4/7ish shot, which seemed reasonable enough.

Also on over 3.5. I am not 100% what odds are on it though, think it might have been 13/8.

Arsenal have a few injuries (according to someone else) & wanted to swurve, but not much choice on for a Wednesday sweat.

Aaron mate, do you think before you post?

As we've just explained over the last 3 or 4 pages this isn't the thread for random sweat punts.

Why not start your own thread if that's how you want to punt?

Here you go, saved you the effort:

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=59352.0

[smashedagain]

Anyone got any thought on the dortmund - madrid game? Just seen madrids back line..ramos varane pepe and essien. Looks vulnerable to the high pressing style of dortmund. Dortmund 12/5 ftw, thoughts?

I have no view really but wouldn't the back four be more of a reason to bet overs than Dortmund?

Yes true. Id just seen the team news and thought of ways to take advantage. When The total goals quote was 3.15 which meant the overs were around 4/7ish shot, which seemed reasonable enough.

Also on over 3.5. I am not 100% what odds are on it though, think it might have been 13/8.

Arsenal have a few injuries (according to someone else) & wanted to swurve, but not much choice on for a Wednesday sweat.

Aaron mate, do you think before you post?

As we've just explained over the last 3 or 4 pages this isn't the thread for random sweat punts.

Why not start your own thread if that's how you want to punt?

Here you go, saved you the effort:

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=59352.0

lol too good

[class]

I've seen the term dirty each way crop up from time to time on this thread, most recently with the messi bet. Could someone be so kind to explain what this means please. Ta muchly.

[tikay]

Man City getting proper battered, 3-1 down and deservedly. They were a goal up, too.

[AndrewT]

On the US election, Obama moved from 1.61 to 1.54 on Betfair today, following the total non-event that was Trump's statement (there was speculation he had evidence that the Obamas had filed for divorce back before he became President).

It's a shame we've missed the price because that really was an all-in price on Obama. Romney has come in since the first debate gave his campaign the vestige of credibility (due to Obama sleepwalking through it), and also because the polls have been quite tight recently.

However, because of the way the election works, and only a few key states really mattering, Romney has a mountain to climb to become President. When you look at the different permutations of either of them winning the key states, Obama has more likely routes to victory.

Ohio is the keystone (yes, Laxie's people) with only a 5% chance that the candidate that loses Ohio wins the election. Current polls show Obama about 2% ahead in Ohio which, with the margin of error, is about a 70% chance of him winning, so combining those gives 66% chance of winning the election, which is 1.5 on its own. The polls have actually tightened over the past couple of weeks but only 1 has given a lead to Romney.

The Superpac money has been flagged as a big plus for Romney, but a lot of that money is actually being wasted (booking TV slots late on, at higher cost than the pro-Obama ones). The thing that is more likely to be a factor is the organisation on the ground - actually getting the supporters out to vote - and Obama has the edge here. The Democrats have over three times as many field offices (organising the campaign) in Ohio as the Republicans and it's not even the Romney campaign which is organising the effort on the ground, but the Republican party, and they are also organising the campaigns for the Senate/Congressional seats, leading to a diluting of message.

I'm not recommending a bet on Obama at 1.55 (as he is now) as missing the 1.61 means a bit of the value has gone, but will have a look at some of the other markets - I suspect there'll be a bit of value in electoral college votes.

[TightEnd]

On the US election, Obama moved from 1.61 to 1.54 on Betfair today, following the total non-event that was Trump's statement (there was speculation he had evidence that the Obamas had filed for divorce back before he became President).

It's a shame we've missed the price because that really was an all-in price on Obama. Romney has come in since the first debate gave his campaign the vestige of credibility (due to Obama sleepwalking through it), and also because the polls have been quite tight recently.

However, because of the way the election works, and only a few key states really mattering, Romney has a mountain to climb to become President. When you look at the different permutations of either of them winning the key states, Obama has more likely routes to victory.

Ohio is the keystone (yes, Laxie's people) with only a 5% chance that the candidate that loses Ohio wins the election. Current polls show Obama about 2% ahead in Ohio which, with the margin of error, is about a 70% chance of him winning, so combining those gives 66% chance of winning the election, which is 1.5 on its own. The polls have actually tightened over the past couple of weeks but only 1 has given a lead to Romney.

The Superpac money has been flagged as a big plus for Romney, but a lot of that money is actually being wasted (booking TV slots late on, at higher cost than the pro-Obama ones). The thing that is more likely to be a factor is the organisation on the ground - actually getting the supporters out to vote - and Obama has the edge here. The Democrats have over three times as many field offices (organising the campaign) in Ohio as the Republicans and it's not even the Romney campaign which is organising the effort on the ground, but the Republican party, and they are also organising the campaigns for the Senate/Congressional seats, leading to a diluting of message.

I'm not recommending a bet on Obama at 1.55 (as he is now) as missing the 1.61 means a bit of the value has gone, but will have a look at some of the other markets - I suspect there'll be a bit of value in electoral college votes.

looking forward to this

A better class of psephological debate.

[The Camel]

I've seen the term dirty each way crop up from time to time on this thread, most recently with the messi bet. Could someone be so kind to explain what this means please. Ta muchly.

Bookmakers price up events to a certain percentage. Say 120%.

In some events, usually with a very short priced odds on favourite, the second and third favourites although the correct price to win, suddenly become extreme value to be placed.

For example.

Here's a mythical 8 horse race:

1/5
5/1
8/1
100/1
100/1
100/1
100/1
100/1

At 1/5 odds the place, the second and third favourites are Evens and 8/5 to place.

Mathematically the true price should be about 1/5 and 1/4 respectively.

You give up a small edge in the win part of the bet but get a huge +ev on the place part.

Bookmakers hate these bets and if you do them too often, you'll get your acct closed.

[tikay]

This is looking like an unlikely Max bet on politics of all things, too.

We have missed a bit of price, but surely it can only move one way now?

Yes, no?

[tikay]

Meanwhile, Man City are in a huge hole, so have put Ballotelli on.......

[Tonji]

Pesology: The study of political elections.

Yes, google came to my rescue

[tikay]

Pesology: The study of political elections.

Yes, google came to my rescue

Good man, saved me having to google it.

How does he know these words?

[tikay]

Arsenal a goal down now.

Not our best CL week.

[Tal]

Psephology is the study of voting, though, which is what we are really doing.

[tikay]

Arsenal now 2 down.....

[Tal]

Pesology, psephology... it's all Greek to me.

Arsenal 2 down at home
 
Sacked in the morning...