Tips for Tikay

[TheDazzler]

United 9/4 to win PL title, thoughts?

Fred doesn't like to tie up money for long periods of time unless it's a standout bet which I don't think this qualifies as.
I think it's a fair enough bet in its own right in what is essentially a 3 horse race.
The price may be quite different after tomorrow. If United lose to Chelsea, they will drift significantly (to 3/1+?), a draw may see prices unchanged and a United win could see them move to outright/joint favs(?).
I could see an argument for Chelsea and United getting stronger as the season progresses (Chelsea new signings gelling, United defensive options returning Vidic/Smalling/Jones) and less of a reason for City to improve although if they go out of Champs League, it helps them immensely.
Meh, if someone had a gun to my head I'd probably back Chelsea @ 13/5 as the outsiders of the 3. If they win tomorrow that will have to be significantly shorter (4 points clear of City, 7 ahead of United).

[bobby1]

well, that was pretty spectacular if nothing else. It's pretty difficult to bet under a number in a game and have 1 team beat the total on their own. Well done me.

The weather just didn't get there, it stayed off the Carolina coast by a few hundred miles and didn't make it on shore there to affect the games.

http://www.weather.com/news/hurricane-sandy-preparations-20121024?pageno=4

It is being dubbed Frankenstorm now, what is interesting is the total lines in the Jets, Philly and Pittsburgh games have fallen by around a combined 7 points since Thursday but it does look now like the main hurricane will not come on shore their until after the games. It might be worth keeping an eye on those lines 2morrow as good weather to bad weather lines could be many points different. If Pinny move those totals either way in the lead up to the game then it might be significant.

The first two vids here are pretty interesting if you like weather porn.

http://www.weather.com/news/hurricane-sandy-preparations-20121024?pageno=1


I went to the SMU v Memphis game today and just to top off a bad day I ate something called a corn dog before the game as I was a little intrigued to see what it was, basically it is a 10 inch hotdog inside a warm doughnut batter that is deep fried (circa about 1000 calories would be my estimate) I then sat in the sun for 4 hours and noticed at half time I had basically been sat in the sun for 2 hours with batter cooking around my lips. So not only have I done my bollox, I have also now got a mouth that resembles the Joker from Batman and sunburn on one half of my face and neck.

Well done me.

[class]

The Dr is bested by one shot over four rounds in the CIMB Classic. We will get those pesky asians next time.

[smashedagain]

well, that was pretty spectacular if nothing else. It's pretty difficult to bet under a number in a game and have 1 team beat the total on their own. Well done me.

The weather just didn't get there, it stayed off the Carolina coast by a few hundred miles and didn't make it on shore there to affect the games.

http://www.weather.com/news/hurricane-sandy-preparations-20121024?pageno=4

It is being dubbed Frankenstorm now, what is interesting is the total lines in the Jets, Philly and Pittsburgh games have fallen by around a combined 7 points since Thursday but it does look now like the main hurricane will not come on shore their until after the games. It might be worth keeping an eye on those lines 2morrow as good weather to bad weather lines could be many points different. If Pinny move those totals either way in the lead up to the game then it might be significant.

The first two vids here are pretty interesting if you like weather porn.

http://www.weather.com/news/hurricane-sandy-preparations-20121024?pageno=1


I went to the SMU v Memphis game today and just to top off a bad day I ate something called a corn dog before the game as I was a little intrigued to see what it was, basically it is a 10 inch hotdog inside a warm doughnut batter that is deep fried (circa about 1000 calories would be my estimate) I then sat in the sun for 4 hours and noticed at half time I had basically been sat in the sun for 2 hours with batter cooking around my lips. So not only have I done my bollox, I have also now got a mouth that resembles the Joker from Batman and sunburn on one half of my face and neck.

Well done me.

[TightEnd]

Just got a bit unlucky with those bets really





Should be fun sitting in the (unroofed) stands at the Metlife in New Jersey, the Linc in Philly and Pittsburgh later. Not

[kukushkin88]

Good Morning,

I think we have a pretty good one in LeSean McCoy over 90.5 rushing yards vs Atlanta @ 10/11 with VC. Atlanta aren't the easiest team to throw it against and Andy Reid would be mad to let Vick try and beat them through the air in such an important game, Atlanta don't fare that well against the run in general. I think Philadelphia's defence will keep things tight and this will keep McCoy in the game, I actually think Philadelphia will win this game (the extra prep time/rest of a bye week seems to be a key to this team/coaching staff) and if they do then this bet almost certainly wins as he'll get a ton of carries. His numbers this year are skewed on the low side by the turnovers that have meant they've had to throw the ball more than they would have done had they been contolling the score/clock.

Waiting on some team news (Dwight Freeney) for the Indy game but I think Indy +3.5 is also likely to be a very good bet.

As always appreciate views on these from Red, Tighty, Camel, Bobby, Neil etc.

[tikay]

Morning Kuku.

Thanks.

I'd be keen to back both of those, but as you suggest, maybe we should wait a little while & get some feedback, but if nothing negative comes in, we will back Mr McCoy for over 90.5. The game starts at 5pm UK I believe, so we have some time.

Can you Post again when you hear the team news on the Indy game please? - happy to get on that as well, if the news is what you hope for.

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 1235, Sunday October 28th

LOSS on Month = £919.70

Unsettled Bets  - £483.50



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=13

[kukushkin88]

Well it does look good for Freeney at the moment so shall we pull the trigger on both?

£33 on each? Both at 10/11, McCoy with VC and Indy +3.5 almost across the board.

Also to keep the fun element in the thread how about trying to hit a bit of a home run on the First TD's to get out of it on the month (not recommended as part of any completely serious betting strategy)? PP go near best price on the three I like a so maybe McCoy 6/1 Philly, James Jones 15/2 GB and Dutin Keller 10/1 NYJ. 3 x £3 Doubles and a £3 Treble?

[tikay]

Daily Report as at 1255, Saturday October 27th

We lost £185 yesterday.

4 bets completed, we were 0 for 4.

We really can't buy a winner at the moment!

So we approach the unthinkable - a 4 figure loss in a single month. To get things in perspectiove though, it means that since we began, we are at break-even, or more precisely, a £55 loss, over 9 months, so not so bad really.

Variance is a wicked mistress, but she is huge fun, & totally unpredictable. We have enjoyed the swongs, so we must accept the swings.

I thought we did quite well to swerve the football yesterday, the results were horribly unpredictable, but we missed the lot, & saved a good few bob from what I could see. Always look on the brigggghhhht side of life, de dum, de dum, de dum de dum de dum.

Dr Noh just failed to get hector's bet home, missing out by a stroke.

We did three College Football games, they were all weather-related, but the hurricane is running late, & we got blown away ourselves. In one game, ONE TEAM scored more than the predicted game points line!

First reaction to that was ^%$RURfdrhj***, but then you think that the Hurricane is lethal, people are in fear of their lives, & their homes, (40 died in the Caribbean already), against which, sulking about a £165 loss is not on.  

Today? A small interest in Everton-Liverpool is all we have so far, but there is plenty of action today, in footballl & NFL, & I imagine we'll have some action a bit later, more especially on the NFL. Unless any negative comments arrive, we will do both of Kuku-s suggestions later.

I'm pinned to the laptop all day & evening, as we have a major event going off next door, which I need to "work", so I'll be here all day for incoming stuff.    

[tikay]

Well it does look good for Freeney at the moment so shall we pull the trigger on both?£33 on each? Both at 10/11, McCoy with VC and Indy +3.5 almost across the board.

Also to keep the fun element in the thread how about trying to hit a bit of a home run on the First TD's to get out of it on the month (not recommended as part of any completely serious betting strategy)? PP go near best price on the three I like a so maybe McCoy 6/1 Philly, James Jones 15/2 GB and Dutin Keller 10/1 NYJ. 3 x £3 Doubles and a £3 Treble?

We have a deal, let's do it. I'm feeling very optimistic & irresponsible today.

Will get on shortly, also those TD Banzais. Dubs & Trebs, whatever next? No point in this if we can't let our hair down now & then, & when we are nearly a bag down, what's not to like about a bit of blind optimism?

Will get on shortly, & Post all the Bets when I have done so.

[TightEnd]

Am mobile but someone take a look please. Chargers at Cleveland points under 43.5. 90% chance of rain and 25mph northerlies forecast, ie straight down from Canada. Cleveland noit a prolific offense and both qbs will struggle. Meanwhile the nygt line has moved a point and a half to -2.5 since I posted it. A shame really, but the main opportunity has passed

[tikay]

Thanks Rich. Will need the NFL lads to comment, I can't help really.

The NYGT line you mention - was that put up earlier, and I missed it? If so, will take a look, but again, I'll need help.

[TightEnd]

Another one please

Huge Dallas Cowboys fan since 1982. Don't miss a game, read the forums daily, live stream press-conferences. The lot. Sadly.

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/new-york-giants-at-dallas-cowboys/point-spread

There has been major injury news in the last 24 hours

When the Cowboys beat the Giants as a three point Dog in the opening game of the season, Sean Lee the leader of the defense (makes the calls, leader on the field) had 14 tackles and a forced fumble. Huge performance

Not as high profile as the loss of say Lewis to the Ravens, but he's now on Injured reserve as of today and profile apart the magnitude of the loss is similar to the Ravens loss. Virtually irreplaceable (they have done so via Ernie Sims, off the street)

In that week one game DeMarco Murray rushed for 131 yards on 22 carries. He is out Sunday too. Furthermore his back up Felix Jones is banged up and may miss the game

As for the Cowboys overall, offense has been spluttering all season, with the OL only now beginning to gel and the skill positions such as Witten, Bryant (million dollar hands, million peanut brain), Austin underperforming


The Giants are healthier, Nicks is back, Bradshaw is back.

The line has not moved for this significant injury news

NYG -1 looks max bet material to me, but I don't know what I am missing?

I am aware of Neil's thoughts on money generally coming in for the Cowboys as we near weekends. Has that held the line up?

I make the NYG a touchdown favourite in this game. NYG were -3 first game of the season since when they are 5-1, Dallas are 2-3 and the injury positions completely reversed

(History is a bit unpopular as a reason for a bet on here, but the Giants are 3-0 at the new Cowboys Stadium. big chip on the shoulder for the Giants players as our idiot owner keeps firing them up with talk, which gets them going. They play up, the Cowboys choke like a Heimlich Manoeuvre training course with alarming frequency)

What am I missing?

[tikay]

Good Morning,

I think we have a pretty good one in LeSean McCoy over 90.5 rushing yards vs Atlanta @ 10/11 with VC. Atlanta aren't the easiest team to throw it against and Andy Reid would be mad to let Vick try and beat them through the air in such an important game, Atlanta don't fare that well against the run in general. I think Philadelphia's defence will keep things tight and this will keep McCoy in the game, I actually think Philadelphia will win this game (the extra prep time/rest of a bye week seems to be a key to this team/coaching staff) and if they do then this bet almost certainly wins as he'll get a ton of carries. His numbers this year are skewed on the low side by the turnovers that have meant they've had to throw the ball more than they would have done had they been contolling the score/clock.

Waiting on some team news (Dwight Freeney) for the Indy game but I think Indy +3.5 is also likely to be a very good bet.

As always appreciate views on these from Red, Tighty, Camel, Bobby, Neil etc.

Thanks, both booked. I'l do the Banzai seperately.

Sean McCoy, (Falcons v Eagles), OVER 90.5 rushing yards, £33 @ 10/11, BetVictor.

Indianapolis Colts v Tennessee Titans, Colts +3.5, £33 @ 10/11, BetVictor.

ON

Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles
Over 90.5
(Total Rushing Yards LeSean McCoy)
Odds:  10/11
Stake:  33.00
Possible Return:  63.00

________

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
Indianapolis Colts +3.5
(Handicap)
Odds:  10/11
Stake:  33.00
Possible Return:  63.00